What is the current state of US politics?

State of US politics — I'll pull the latest on Washington's current dynamics.

As of October 21, 2026, the United States is in a highly polarized, pre-midterm period during President Donald Trump's second term:

1. Executive and Legislative Control - A Republican Trifecta on the Line

The 119th Congress (January 3, 2025 – present) has Republican majorities in both chambers with:

•Senate majority: Republican

•House majority: Republican

Specifically, Republicans currently hold 53 seats in the Senate and 218 in the House. With Trump in the White House, that means the party has held a so-called government "trifecta" over the last two years, with three levers of power under its command.

The relationship between the White House and Congress is tense over spending power. The Trump Administration has repeatedly tested the boundaries of congressional control over federal funding, prompting bipartisan pushback from appropriators. Disputes include:

•Proposed executive control over NIH grant awards

•"Pocket rescissions" - President Trump proposed rescinding $810 million across 11 accounts just days before the end of FY26. Under the Impoundment Control Act, when a request arrives so close to the end of the fiscal year that the funds expire before Congress can act, it becomes a "pocket rescission". The Government Accountability Office concluded the act does not allow withholding past expiration without congressional approval, a view the administration disputes.

2. The 2026 Midterms - The Defining Event

The US midterm elections on November 3, 2026, will determine whether President Donald Trump can continue relying on a Republican-controlled Congress or face a Democratic majority with the power to block his agenda, investigate his administration and challenge his spending priorities.

All 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 Senate seats are up for grabs.

With just three weeks until Election Day, Republicans are fighting to maintain their congressional majorities, while Democrats are seeking to regain control.

Current outlook:

•Polling and prediction markets favor Democrats to flip the House. One market had Democrats at 90.4% for House control as of Oct 20, 2026, while analysts note Democrats are currently favored to take control of the House of Representatives in the November 2026 elections, and the possibility is growing that Republicans will lose control of the Senate as well.

•A recent poll found 59% of Americans would rather see the next Congress controlled by Democrats, to act as a check on Trump, compared to 35% who prefer Republican control. Another AP-NORC poll found nearly half of voters would like Democrats to take control of Congress, with 47% favoring Democratic control of the House and 46% favoring Democratic control of the Senate, compared with 38% who would prefer Republicans to remain in charge.

•The Los Angeles Times reported that in the final stretch of the 2026 midterms, nearly two weeks out from election day, the White House has returned to chaos, anticipating sweeping losses to Democrats. Democrats are promising to use congressional authority to investigate President Donald Trump and his administration.

Congress is currently in October recess and has officially shifted into campaign mode, with a significant amount of work remaining when lawmakers return after the midterms, most notably completing FY27 appropriations before the current continuing resolution expires December 11.

3. President Trump's Approval

President Trump's approval is at historic lows for his second term ahead of the midterms:

•A Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll released October 19, 2026 found Trump's approval rating fell to a new low of 33%, with 66 percent disapproving. The rating is the lowest recorded at any point in either of Trump’s terms.

•Polling averages as of October 20, 2026 showed 38.5% approve and 59.5% disapprove, a net rating of −21.0.

•In that AP-NORC poll, 36% of voters approve of how President Trump is handling his job while 64% disapprove. About three quarters disapprove of how he is handling the economy (74%) or the cost of living (79%).

4. Top Voter Issues

Economic pressure dominates:

•Eighty-five percent of voters say the economy is one of the most important issues when considering their vote, and 84% say the same about the cost of living.

•Health care is considered a top issue for 69% of voters, while 64% cite the war with Iran as a top issue. Forty-five percent say immigration and crime are among the most important issues.

Other surveys confirm the same pattern: Cint research found 55% rank cost of living as the top issue, with 70% concerned about AI-driven election misinformation and saying political polarization has worsened.

Mounting frustration over inflation, stagnant wages and deepening polarization are driving voter unease ahead of the elections.

5. Political Mood: Pessimism, Polarization and Election Concerns

•Most voters are focused on economic concerns and are eager for change. 8 in 10 say the country needs substantial change or complete and total upheaval in how it is run. Two-thirds of voters feel pessimistic about the state of politics, with only 1 in 10 saying they feel optimistic.

•Local political polarization is rising sharply ahead of the midterms, with survey of local officials reporting a spike in polarization within communities.

•When it comes to election administration, two in five Americans (38%) say they are not confident that the 2026 midterms will be conducted fairly and accurately, compared to 61% who are.

•Historical analysis notes that given the extreme polarization in U.S. politics today, a divided government would likely result in gridlock, with little or no material change to legislation for the next two years.

6. Government Funding Status

The government shutdown threat that dominated headlines for much of the summer ultimately did not materialize, as Congress moved to pass a continuing resolution that President Trump signed into law on September 2. Funding is now secured through December 11, 2026. The next real shutdown risk is in December — not October.

Citations (2)

1mondaq.comNot yet classified
The Topline: Steptoe Appropriations Newsletter | October 2, 2026
Backs: “The relationship between the White House and Congress is tense over spending power. The Trump Administration has repeatedly tested the boundaries of congressional control over federal funding, prompting bipartisan pushback from appropriators.”
2apnorc.orgAcademic
Ahead of the midterms, most voters cite the economy and cost of living as top issues and favor political change
Backs: “A recent poll found 59% of Americans would rather see the next Congress controlled by Democrats, to act as a check on Trump, compared to 35% who prefer Republican control. Another AP-NORC poll found nearly half of voters would like Democrats to take control of Congress, with 47% favoring Democratic control of the…”