Is voter fraud a problem in the US?

Based on extensive, multi-decade research from academics, courts, government agencies, and even conservative-leaning sources, voter fraud in the U.S. is well-documented to be real but exceedingly rare, and it does not occur at a scale that affects election outcomes.

What the research shows

Multiple academic studies going back to 2007 have found remarkably consistent results. A landmark Brennan Center review found that most reported incidents of voter fraud are actually traceable to other sources, such as clerical errors or bad data matching practices, with incident rates between 0.0003 percent and 0.0025 percent. Put another way, researchers concluded it is more likely an American "will be struck by lightning than that he will impersonate another voter at the polls."

A follow-up analysis identified 31 credible instances of impersonation fraud from 2000 to 2014, out of more than 1 billion ballots cast over that period.

Even conservative data sources confirm this

Even the Heritage Foundation's own "Election Fraud Database"—often cited by those claiming widespread fraud—shows the same pattern when analyzed. Brookings Institution researchers found that in Pennsylvania, the Heritage Foundation analyzed 30 years of data, across which 32 elections were held, and just 39 cases of voter fraud were identified—0.000039 percent of the more than 100 million ballots cast. Similarly, in Arizona, over the 25 years covering the bulk of the cases cited by Heritage, there were 36 elections held, meaning around 42.6 million votes cast with only 36 cases of fraud in total.

A Brookings scholar summarized the conclusion: "There are a few cases of election fraud in every campaign, but it's not systemic. It's not widespread. It's generally not organized, and I don't think ever has affected the actual outcome, but people often pick on isolated cases and turn it into a systemic and widespread pattern."

Mail-in voting specifically

Despite frequent claims about mail ballots being especially vulnerable, research shows otherwise. Brookings researchers examined cases of fraud reported during elections in 2016, 2018, 2020, and 2022 and estimated there were about four cases of fraud for every 10 million mail ballots cast, on average. This translates to roughly 0.000043% of mail ballots.

Specific fraud types

Courts and officials agree

This isn't just academic consensus—it's also been affirmed by courts and election officials, including Republican-appointed judges. Regarding the 2020 election, one researcher noted: "Judges heard the cases, they reviewed the evidence—both Republican and Democratic judges... there were judges appointed by Donald Trump, and they all reached the conclusion there was not widespread ballot fraud." Even Republican-led fraud investigations have turned up minimal results: in Ohio, Republican Secretary of State Frank LaRose announced in 2022 his office had found 75 voters who allegedly cast a ballot in the state and another state in 2020, out of almost 6 million ballots cast in Ohio that year.

The bottom line

Voter fraud does happen—individual, isolated cases occur in nearly every election cycle—but "research has been consistent over time that voter fraud is infinitesimally rare and almost never occurs on a scale that would affect an election outcome." The scientific and legal consensus across decades of study, multiple political administrations, and both left- and right-leaning data sources is that voter fraud is not a systemic problem threatening U.S. election integrity, even as public perception of it remains high, particularly along partisan lines.