Will stopping immigration cause labor shortages?

Stopping immigration's impact on labor supply is complex — I'll gather recent data on shortages across sectors.

In short: Yes - economic research and government forecasts indicate that stopping or sharply reducing immigration would likely cause or worsen labor shortages, especially in the medium to long term, though the size and timing depends on the sector, demographics, and whether automation offsets the loss.

1. Why economists expect shortages

a) Immigrants are a large share of workforce growth:

•Foreign-born individuals make up nearly 20 percent of the nation's workers. In 2025, immigrants also accounted for more than 70 percent of U.S. population growth

•Immigrants fill both low-skilled jobs that complement native-born U.S. workers and high-skilled jobs where domestic supply falls short of demand

•Research finds: "For every six male undocumented workers lost, we found that the labor market also loses one male U.S.-born worker" - because many native jobs are complementary to immigrant labor. A native-born engineer, architect, plumber or electrician, for example, would find fewer opportunities if immigrant construction laborers were deported

b) Demographics mean native-born workforce is shrinking:

•26% of the manufacturing workforce is aged 55 or older, while only 8% fall in the 16-to-24 age bracket

•The U.S. labor force will begin shrinking in 2026, driven by tighter immigration policies and the "demographic cliff" from accelerating baby boomer retirements

•The United States faces a near-term structural contraction in its civilian labor force — a first in modern economic history caused by boomer retirements and below-replacement birth rates

c) Reduced immigration contributes to labor shortages and inflation:

•"Reduced immigration contributes to labor shortages, driving inflationary pressures as the supply of immigrant-dependent goods and services shrinks."

•Brookings and other models warn a sudden plunge in immigration will dampen employment, GDP and consumer spending and push sustainable monthly job growth well below historical norms

2. Projected scale

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) in February 2026 forecast:

•The U.S. population will grow an average 0.3% each year over the next decade, half the growth rate previously projected, equating to 2.4 million fewer working-age Americans by 2035

•Reduced net immigration will leave the U.S. population in 2035 about 5.3 million smaller than previously projected

•Private estimates project falling immigration could lead to up to 15.7 million fewer workers by 2035 and annual economic growth falling by nearly one-third. Other modeling suggests 11 million projected fewer workers in 2035 due to restrictive policies

•A mass deportation on advocated scales could permanently shrink the U.S. economy by as much as 6 percent

3. Sectors most vulnerable

The U.S. labor market faces a growing crisis as restrictive immigration policies exacerbate shortages in sectors reliant on immigrant workers—construction, agriculture, and healthcare

Specific reliance cited:

•Immigrant workers comprising 25% of construction labor, 66% of agriculture workers, and 15–28% of healthcare staff

•Construction: 40% of workers in Texas and California are foreign-born

•Agriculture: 47% of its workforce lacks work authorization, and historically almost half of all agricultural workers were foreign-born and more than one-fourth (27.3 percent) were undocumented

•Healthcare: 15% of nurses and 27% of aides are immigrants, roughly one-in-four medical doctors is foreign-born

Other reports note the sectors most acutely affected are agriculture, construction, hospitality, and healthcare support services like elder care. Ending Temporary Protected Status alone stripped 528,000 workers of authorization, worsening harvest delays.

Historical examples show restrictions did not create jobs for natives:

•The 1964 "bracero exclusion" which removed nearly half-a-million Mexican agricultural workers, did not result in the promised boost to native-born farm wages and employment. Instead jobs were either replaced by machines or eliminated

•Official labor data in 2025 showed the decline in foreign-born workers did not lead to stronger employment outcomes for U.S.-born individuals

•Secure Communities deportations between 2008 and 2014 reduced the employment share of native-born workers in immigrant-reliant industries

4. Counterarguments and mitigations

Not all analysts predict severe economy-wide shortages immediately:

•"Broadly speaking, economists say they don't anticipate widespread economic reverberations including labor shortages" out of a labor force of nearly 170 million people

•Some models expect negative net migration to have little impact on prices and inflation because businesses will experience reductions in both labor supply and demand

•Businesses may adapt through automation, AI, and capital substitution. The CBO noted rising business adoption of artificial intelligence could help productivity stay afloat, with output in the U.S. economy 1% higher by 2036 than it would have been without AI, described as an "offsetting factor". In agriculture, firms are turning to autonomous tractors and robotics, in construction to AI-driven machinery.

•However, AI doesn't pay taxes, and fewer people means a smaller taxpayer base, with CBO estimating immigration-related administrative actions added roughly $500 billion to deficits over 2026-2035 partly because fewer people will be paying taxes.

Some restriction advocates argue that tighter immigration protects domestic jobs and wages, particularly for low-skilled native workers where employers may favor immigrants willing to work for lower wages, and that competition creates downward pressure on wages. Studies cited in response find the wage impact is generally small and varies by industry and region.

Bottom line

Stopping immigration entirely would not create a uniform shortage overnight across all occupations, but given that nearly all growth in the labor force has stemmed from immigration flows in recent years, and with an aging native-born population, a complete stop would almost certainly:

1.Produce acute shortages in labor-intensive, lower-wage and care sectors

2.Shrink total labor supply by millions over a decade

3.Reduce GDP, tax revenue and slow growth unless offset by very large productivity gains from automation or higher native participation

Short-term relief in areas like housing demand might occur, but long-term effects pointed to by CBO, Brookings, and academic literature are a smaller workforce and slower economic growth.

Citations (3)

1equitablegrowth.orgNonprofits and think tanks
Economic research shows immigration is good for U.S. workers, the economy, and affordability
Backs: “Foreign-born individuals make up nearly 20 percent of the nation's workers. In 2025, immigrants also accounted for more than 70 percent of U.S. population growth. Immigrants fill both low-skilled jobs that complement native-born U.S.”
2dailynews.usNot yet classified
Less immigration under Trump will contribute to 2 million-person labor force hole, CBO says | DN
Backs: “Brookings and other models warn a sudden plunge in immigration will dampen employment, GDP and consumer spending and push sustainable monthly job growth well below historical norms. 2. Projected scale. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) in February 2026 forecast: The U.S. population will grow an average 0.3% each…”
3ainvest.comNot yet classified
Immigration Policy and Labor Shortages: Navigating Sector Vulnerabilities and Tech-Driven Opportunities
Backs: “A mass deportation on advocated scales could permanently shrink the U.S. economy by as much as 6 percent. 3. Sectors most vulnerable. The U.S. labor market faces a growing crisis as restrictive immigration policies exacerbate shortages in sectors reliant on immigrant workers—construction, agriculture, and healthcare”