Is political polarization worse than it's been in the past?

Polarization today versus history is a big question — I'll pull current research comparing now to past eras.

By most modern measures, yes - but with important historical context:

Worse than the recent past (last 20-50 years) — Yes

•A Pew Research Center analysis from 2022 found Democrats and Republicans are farther apart ideologically today than at any time in the past 50 years.

•In the 117th U.S. Congress from 2021 to 2023, there were about two dozen moderate Democrats and Republicans. For comparison, there were more than 160 moderates five decades earlier during the 92nd U.S. Congress from 1971-1972.

•Pew's earlier large survey of more than 10,000 Americans found more political polarization in the United States than at any time in the past two decades.

•Zachary Neal's study found polarization has been steadily getting worse since the early 1970s and today "we've hit the ceiling on polarization".

•Researchers at the University of Cambridge's Political Psychology Lab tracked shifts using more than 35,000 responses from the American National Election Studies between 1988 and 2024, finding divisions were broadly stable through the 1990s and early 2000s, before rising steadily from 2008 onward. They estimate issue polarization has increased 64%.

Part of this is affective polarization — dislike of the other party, not just policy distance:

•Using American National Election Studies (ANES) data, the average difference on a 0-100 "feeling thermometer" increased from 22.64 points in 1978 to 40.87 points in 2016, an increase of about 81%.

•Pew Research Center found in 1994, only 17% of Republicans and 16% of Democrats reported very unfavorable views of the opposing party. By 2016, those numbers had risen to 58% of Republicans and 55% of Democrats.

•The degree to which partisan polarization is considered much higher today is generally acknowledged.

In Congress, data scientists measure this with DW-NOMINATE scores — a method that places legislators on a liberal-conservative scale based on roll call voting records. The left-right dimension alone accounts for about 85 percent of variance in all roll call voting.

•Following a period of a much more balanced Congress during the middle of the 20th century, ideological distance between the parties began to grow during the 1970s to the extent that Congress is now more polarized than at any time since the late 1870s Reconstruction Era.

•Other analysis using the same data finds after decades of relatively little polarization, parties began pulling apart in the mid-1970s and today Congress is now more polarized than at any time since the end of Reconstruction.

Another measure is the overlap interval — how many Republicans lie to the right of the most right-leaning Democrat and vice versa. Today, the overlap interval is zero. In the 1960s, for instance, about 50 percent of the legislators in the two parties overlapped.

Worse than ever in American history? — Comparable to the 1850s-1870s, not clearly worse

When viewed within the context of data from the last two centuries, today's levels are not such an alarming anomaly compared to those occurring during the time of slavery and similar points along the historical continuum.

Historians note that today's intense partisan climate mirrors previous high-polarization periods, particularly the Civil War Era.

Historian David Brady notes that partisan voting in Congress represents "the historical norm rather than the exception." During the 1850s, congressional debates over slavery became so heated that representatives carried weapons to the Capitol floor. Similarly, today's political environment shows comparable levels of institutional strain and ideological division.

Some political scientists therefore describe current elite polarization as as polarized today as they were around the time of the Civil War, suggesting a huge gulf in the middle that's not being responded to by the two parties.

In short: Polarization is at a modern high for the post-World War II era, especially since the 1970s and sharply since 2008, and near a historic high matching levels last seen during Reconstruction and the pre-Civil War period.

Citations (3)

1dailymiaminews.comLow provenance
Political polarization is a dating love-block and it may be worse in Trump's second term - Daily Miami News
Backs: “By most modern measures, yes - but with important historical context: Worse than the recent past (last 20-50 years) — Yes. A Pew Research Center analysis from 2022 found Democrats and Republicans are farther apart ideologically today than at any time in the past 50 years.”
2linkedin.comSocial media and video
Are “Colors” Creating Political Polarization In The U.S. - An Atypical Perspective
Backs: “They estimate issue polarization has increased 64%. Part of this is affective polarization — dislike of the other party, not just policy distance: Using American National Election Studies (ANES) data, the average difference on a 0-100 "feeling thermometer" increased from 22.64 points in 1978 to 40.87 points in 2016,…”
3usc.eduAcademic
Political polarization at its worst since the Civil War
Backs: “By 2016, those numbers had risen to 58% of Republicans and 55% of Democrats. The degree to which partisan polarization is considered much higher today is generally acknowledged. In Congress, data scientists measure this with DW-NOMINATE scores — a method that places legislators on a liberal-conservative scale based on…”