Is political polarization worse than it's been in the past?

To answer whether political polarization is worse today than in the past, political scientists and historians look at two different timeframes: deep American history and modern history (the last 50 to 80 years).

The short answer is: No, it is not the worst it has ever been in U.S. history, but it is the worst it has been in modern history. While we are not in a state of physical warfare like the 1860s, the depth of our division today is greater than at any point in the last century.

Here is how today’s polarization compares to the past across different eras and dimensions.

1. The Deep Historical View: The 19th Century

If we look at the entire span of American history, the current era is not the most polarized.

•The Civil War (1861–1865): This remains the absolute peak of American polarization. The country literally fractured, resulting in a war that claimed hundreds of thousands of lives.

•The Reconstruction Era (Late 1870s): Following the Civil War, the country remained bitterly divided along regional and racial lines. Political scientists using "NOMINATE" data (which tracks roll-call voting records to measure how far apart politicians are ideologically) show that polarization in Congress today has only recently returned to the extreme levels last seen during Reconstruction.

2. The Modern Era: The "Consensus" Mid-20th Century

To understand why today feels so divided, it helps to look at the middle of the 20th century (the 1930s through the 1970s), which was a historical anomaly of low polarization.

•During this time, both the Democratic and Republican parties were "big tents" with significant internal diversity. The Democratic Party contained both liberal northern reformers and highly conservative southern segregationists. The Republican Party had both conservative midwesterners and liberal northeastern "Rockefeller Republicans."

•Because both parties had internal ideological mixtures, bipartisan coalitions were common, and the average voter did not view the opposing party as an existential threat.

3. Why Today is Different: The Modern Rise of Polarization

Beginning in the late 1970s and accelerating rapidly in the 21st century, polarization began to climb. Modern polarization is characterized by two distinct phenomena: ideological polarization (what we believe) and affective polarization (how we feel about each other).

A. Ideological and Political "Sorting"

In the past, a voter's religion, race, geography, and cultural views did not perfectly predict their political party. Over the last few decades, however, "sorting" occurred.

•Today, the political parties are highly sorted: Democrats have become consistently more liberal, and Republicans have become consistently more conservative. Ideological moderates in Congress have virtually disappeared.

•A study tracking polarization from the late 1980s through 2024 found that divisions on core social and political issues increased by 64%, with almost all of that rise occurring after 2008. This shift was largely driven by the American left moving rapidly in a socially liberal direction, while the right remained relatively stable but sorted more deeply into conservative identities.

B. Affective Polarization: The Rise of Animosity

This is where modern polarization is uniquely toxic. "Affective polarization" is the tendency for partisans to dislike and distrust those from the opposing party.

•According to Pew Research, the share of Americans who hold "very unfavorable" views of the opposing party has skyrocketed. In 2016, roughly 47% of Republicans and 35% of Democrats viewed the other party as "immoral." By 2022, those numbers jumped to 72% of Republicans and 63% of Democrats.

•Political science research shows that this level of personal animosity makes polarization feel worse than in the past because it bleeds into daily life, affecting friendships, family dynamics, and workplace environments.

C. The U.S. is an International Outlier

A landmark study by researchers at Brown and Stanford universities compared American polarization to other major democracies (such as the UK, Canada, Germany, and Australia) over a 40-year period. They found that while polarization has fluctuated or even declined in some countries, the United States is an outlier, experiencing the most rapid and dramatic increase in affective polarization since the late 1970s.

Why is this happening?

Sociologists and political scientists point to several modern drivers that did not exist in previous eras:

1.The Media Landscape: The rise of partisan cable news (starting in the 1990s) and social media algorithms designed to maximize outrage have created echo chambers that reinforce negative stereotypes of the political opposition.

2.Perception Gaps: Research suggests that everyday voters are actually much closer to the center than they think. However, because the media and political leaders highlight the most extreme voices, voters falsely assume that all members of the opposing party hold those extreme views, fueling unwarranted hostility.

Summary

While the U.S. is not on the brink of a literal civil war, political polarization is worse than at any point in living memory. The structural division in government and the deep-seated social animosity between ordinary citizens make today’s political environment uniquely hostile compared to the stability of the mid-to-late 20th century.

Citations (10)

1usc.eduAcademic
usc.edu
Backs: “To answer whether political polarization is worse today than in the past, political scientists and historians look at two different timeframes: deep American history and modern history (the last 50 to 80 years).”
2brown.eduAcademic
brown.edu
Backs: “To answer whether political polarization is worse today than in the past, political scientists and historians look at two different timeframes: deep American history and modern history (the last 50 to 80 years).”
3wikipedia.orgEncyclopedias and referencequality 0.83
wikipedia.org
Backs: “history, but it is the worst it has been in modern history. While we are not in a state of physical warfare like the 1860s, the depth of our division today is greater than at any point in the last century.”
4syr.eduAcademic
syr.edu
Backs: “The Civil War (1861–1865): This remains the absolute peak of American polarization. The country literally fractured, resulting in a war that claimed hundreds of thousands of lives.”
5facinghistory.orgNonprofits and think tanks
facinghistory.org
Backs: “During this time, both the Democratic and Republican parties were "big tents" with significant internal diversity. The Democratic Party contained both liberal northern reformers and highly conservative southern segregationists.”
6cam.ac.ukAcademic
cam.ac.uk
Backs: “Ideological and Political "Sorting". In the past, a voter's religion, race, geography, and cultural views did not perfectly predict their political party. Over the last few decades, however, "sorting" occurred.”
7gallup.comCompanies
gallup.com
Backs: “Today, the political parties are highly sorted: Democrats have become consistently more liberal, and Republicans have become consistently more conservative. Ideological moderates in Congress have virtually disappeared.”
8nih.govGovernment
nih.gov
Backs: “According to Pew Research, the share of Americans who hold "very unfavorable" views of the opposing party has skyrocketed. In 2016, roughly 47% of Republicans and 35% of Democrats viewed the other party as "immoral." By 2022, those numbers jumped to 72% of Republicans and 63% of Democrats.”
9reddit.comForums and Q&A
reddit.com
Backs: “Political science research shows that this level of personal animosity makes polarization feel worse than in the past because it bleeds into daily life, affecting friendships, family dynamics, and workplace environments. C.”
10stanford.eduAcademic
stanford.edu
Backs: “Political science research shows that this level of personal animosity makes polarization feel worse than in the past because it bleeds into daily life, affecting friendships, family dynamics, and workplace environments. C.”