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Claude Sonnet 5Oct 18, 2026anthropic/claude-sonnet-5-20260630

Is political polarization worse than it's been in the past?

Short answer: Yes, by most measures—especially in the U.S.

Political polarization today is generally considered more severe than at most points in recent historical memory, though the full picture is nuanced depending on what exactly you measure and over what timeframe.

Evidence that polarization is at historic or near-historic highs

In Congress/elite politics: DW-NOMINATE scores reveal that in the periods during and immediately after World War II, the difference in ideology between the median Democrat and median Republican in Congress did not differ nearly as much as they do today. Whereas there used to be many Republicans who were less conservative than the most conservative Democrat, and vice versa, there is no overlap today—the most liberal Republican is still more conservative than the most conservative Democrat.

In the electorate: Pew's landmark study found that Republicans and Democrats are more divided along ideological lines – and partisan antipathy is deeper and more extensive – than at any point in recent history. More specifically, the proportion of individuals expressing consistently conservative or liberal opinions increased from 10% in 1994 to 21% in 2014, while ideological overlap between political partisans significantly declined over the same period.

"Affective polarization" (how much partisans dislike the other side) has grown dramatically. A major cross-national study found that in the U.S., affective polarization has increased more dramatically since the late 1970s than in eight other comparable democracies—the U.K., Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Germany, Switzerland, Norway and Sweden. Using "feeling thermometer" data, researchers found in 1978, the average American rated members of their own party 27 points higher than the other party; by 2016, that gap had grown to 45.9 points.

Partisan hostility has intensified even in just the last decade. Pew Research Center polling reveals a sharp rise in partisan hostility: in 2022, 72% of Republicans and 63% of Democrats viewed the opposing party as more immoral than other Americans—up dramatically from 47% and 35% in 2016. And many Americans perceive this directly—Americans increasingly see the country as more divided than at any time since the Civil War.

The trend continues into 2025. Recent Pew data shows rising political polarization in the last two years, mirroring a broader surge in partisan division across the country. A political scientist studying this summarized it bluntly: "The U.S. is very very polarized... Polarization can always get worse. But at this point we are in a really high level of polarization."

The international comparison makes it more striking

This isn't a universal global trend—it's particularly acute in the U.S. A study measuring trends in 12 OECD countries over the last 40 years found that of the countries included, the US experienced the largest increase in polarization. Similarly, in the late 20th and early 21st century, the U.S. has experienced a greater surge in ideological polarization and affective polarization than comparable democracies.

Important caveats and nuance

1.Not all polarization is new. One study found that while many have argued America has shifted from disagreements on redistribution to disagreements on culture, findings indicate otherwise—since at least the early 1980s, latent values-based clusters have been divided mostly along moral and religious values, and the level of disagreement has been remarkably stable. This suggests some underlying divisions aren't new, even if partisan sorting around them has intensified.
2.It's asymmetric. Polarization among U.S. legislators is asymmetric, as it has primarily been driven by a rightward shift among Republicans in Congress.
3.Historical comparisons are genuinely tricky. Researchers note changes in the scope of policy issues over time—even though measurements show increasing party division over civil rights issues, many of today's votes are narrower in effect than 1960s civil rights legislation, making historical comparisons difficult.
4.The U.S. isn't the most polarized country globally, just the fastest-changing. A broader 2021 study of 51 countries found countries like Bulgaria, Slovakia and the Czech Republic among the most polarized nations, while Iceland, Finland and the Netherlands appeared significantly less divided—interestingly, the US showed up as only moderately polarized when compared with other countries in absolute terms, even though its rate of increase has been exceptional.

Bottom line

If you're asking about the U.S. specifically within the last ~50-80 years, the answer is clearly yes—by nearly every metric (legislative voting patterns, partisan animosity, ideological sorting), division is at or near modern highs, and the pace of increase has outstripped peer democracies. However, it's worth noting that some underlying value divides (religious/moral) have been stable for decades—what's changed is how strongly those divides map onto party identity and how much emotional hostility they generate.

Citations (16)

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