Is voter fraud a problem in the US?

Is voter fraud a significant US problem? I'll gather the latest research and evidence to examine its scale.

In the United States, voter fraud exists but is documented to be extremely rare relative to votes cast - not at a scale that has been shown to alter statewide or national election outcomes.

What research finds

Empirical evidence across decades and multiple methodologies leads to one repeatable conclusion: proven voter fraud is extremely rare, measured in orders of magnitude of 0.0000X percent.

When reported as a rate, different studies find:

•Documented voter fraud rates fall far below one hundredth of a percent — typically measured in the hundred‑thousandths to millionths of a percent with figures like 0.0000845% (Arizona sample), ~0.000039% (Pennsylvania long‑run sample)

•Mail voting fraud accounts for only 0.000043% of total mail ballots cast, or about four cases out of every 10 million mail votes

•One widely cited Brennan Center for Justice analysis found that voter impersonation occurs at a rate between 0.0003% and 0.0025%. The Brennan Center's report reviewed elections that had been meticulously studied for voter fraud, and found incident rates between 0.0003 percent and 0.0025 percent

•A comprehensive 2014 study found 31 credible instances of impersonation fraud from 2000 to 2014, out of more than 1 billion ballots cast

•A specialized United States Department of Justice unit formed to find instances of federal election fraud examined the 2002 and 2004 federal elections, and were able to prove that 0.00000013 percent of ballots cast were fraudulent

Government investigations and courts have reached similar conclusions:

•The Fifth Circuit noted there were "only two convictions for in-person voter impersonation fraud out of 20 million votes cast in the decade" before Texas passed its law

•Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach's review of 84 million votes cast in 22 states yielded 14 instances of fraud referred for prosecution, which amounts to a 0.000017 percent fraud rate

Federal election security officials have stated:

•CISA also said the 2020 election was "the most secure in American history," with no evidence that voting systems deleted, lost or compromised votes

•Attorney General Barr, who served under President Trump, publicly stated in December 2020 that the Department of Justice had not found evidence of fraud that would change the election's result

•CISA has consistently stated that it found no evidence of foreign interference that altered the outcomes of the 2020 or 2024 presidential elections

What the largest database of proven cases shows

Even the Heritage Foundation—which maintains the most comprehensive database of documented voter fraud cases and has been among the most vocal advocates for stricter election integrity measures—has catalogued approximately 1,500 proven cases spanning multiple decades. Other tallies from the database cite:

•A total of 1,561 instances of voter fraud resulting in 1,325 convictions across 40+ years

•Of 1,562 cases in the database as of December 2025, the vast majority — 1,382 — resulted in criminal convictions

Brennan Center analysis of Heritage data noted that in Arizona, Heritage had to search 25 years across 36 elections and over 42 million ballots to find 36 cases of fraud—a rate of 0.0000845 percent.

This illustrates the denominator problem: with well over a billion ballots cast since 2000, a few hundred or thousand cases over decades represents a microscopically small rate.

Does fraud never happen?

Yes, isolated cases of voter fraud have occurred. However, these are typically individual acts of misconduct, such as voter impersonation or illegal absentee voting, not evidence of widespread, organized schemes.

Common types that do appear in prosecutions include:

•Double voting

•Voting by ineligible individuals (including non-citizens with felony convictions where voting rights not restored)

•False registrations / duplicate registrations

•Absentee ballot fraud

These cases often receive disproportionate media attention, contributing to the misconception of widespread fraud.

Some conservative analysts argue the Heritage numbers undercount fraud because not all fraud is detected or prosecuted, and describe voter fraud as a "real and pressing issue." However, nonpartisan academic reviews, court findings, and federal investigations have consistently concluded that while fraud is not zero, it is "vanishingly rare" and impersonating a voter at the polls is less common than being struck by lightning.

Why perception differs from data

Nearly half of Americans believe that there is a problem, when the research says there is none. Studies note that charges are usually based on anecdotes, and that inaccurate voter rolls (e.g., 24 million outdated or inaccurate registrations estimated by Pew) are often confused with actual fraudulent votes cast.

Most reported incidents of voter fraud are actually traceable to other sources, such as clerical errors or bad data matching practices.

Bottom line

•Not a widespread problem that decides elections: No rigorous body of research has shown fraud at the scale necessary to flip major U.S. elections.

•But not zero: Isolated, small-scale fraud does occur and is prosecuted when found. Audits and investigations in 2020 and 2024 found fewer than 475 potentially fraudulent ballots across six battleground states in 2020 — numbers too small to affect the result — and only a handful of prosecutable cases per year nationally.

Election officials therefore focus on safeguards — voter list maintenance, audits, signature verification for mail ballots, and post-election audits — to keep the already-low rates low, while researchers caution that overemphasis on fraud risk can lead to policies that create barriers for eligible voters.

Citations (1)

1brennancenter.orgNonprofits and think tanks
Debunking the Voter Fraud Myth
Backs: “One widely cited Brennan Center for Justice analysis found that voter impersonation occurs at a rate between 0.0003% and 0.0025%. The Brennan Center's report reviewed elections that had been meticulously studied for voter fraud, and found incident rates between 0.0003 percent and 0.0025 percent”