Is political polarization worse than it's been in the past?
Yes, in several key measurable ways—particularly over the past several decades—political polarization in the United States is worse (or at least higher) than it has been in the recent past, though comparisons to deeper history are more nuanced and it is not uniformly “worse than ever” across all dimensions or eras. Polarization is multi-faceted (ideological/issue-based, affective/emotional, elite vs. mass public, geographic sorting), and trends differ by measure. Data are strongest for the modern period (post-WWII or post-1970s/1980s).[1]
Congressional/Elite Polarization
In Congress, Democrats and Republicans are farther apart ideologically than at any point in the past 50 years, with virtually no ideological overlap remaining. This is tracked via DW-NOMINATE scores (based on roll-call votes), which place lawmakers on a liberal-conservative spectrum.[2]
This contributes to gridlock, as cross-party coalitions are rarer.
Public Issue/Ideological Polarization
Among the mass public, divisions on social and political issues have increased substantially since the late 1980s. A 2026 University of Cambridge study (using machine learning clustering on American National Election Studies/ANES data from 1988–2024, covering ~35,000 responses on issues like abortion, equality, race, economics, and traditional values) found that the separation between left- and right-leaning opinion clusters grew by 64%. Nearly all of this rise occurred after 2008 (flat in the 1990s–early 2000s), with a possible slight leveling off after 2020, though levels remain far higher than earlier decades.[1]
Pew Research and other studies similarly document growing ideological consistency (more people holding consistently liberal or conservative views) and less overlap between the parties’ supporters since the 1990s.[5]
Affective Polarization (Emotional Dislike)
This has risen markedly: partisans feel much colder toward the opposing party. ANES feeling thermometer data (0–100 scale, warm to cold) show the gap between in-party and out-party ratings roughly doubling since the late 1970s/1980s (from around 20–25 points to ~50 or higher recently). In-party warmth has been relatively stable or declined modestly, while out-party ratings have plummeted (e.g., average out-party ratings dropping toward the mid-20s or lower in recent data).[6]
This “us vs. them” dynamic extends to social distance (e.g., reluctance for inter-party marriage or friendships) and is linked to geographic sorting (people living in more politically homogeneous areas).
Historical Context and Caveats
In short, for the post-1970s/1980s era that most people experience and for which we have rich data, yes—polarization (especially affective and elite, plus recent issue divides) is worse than it was. It rivals high historical points in Congress and has unique modern features (media, balanced coalitions, personalization). However, the U.S. has endured (and recovered from) worse periods of division and violence. Trends are not inevitable and can stabilize or reverse, as some post-2020 data hint. Cross-national comparisons show the U.S. pattern is distinctive rather than universal.
Citations (10)
- https://www.cam.ac.uk/stories/political-division-united-states
Backs: “Data are strongest for the modern period (post-WWII or post-1970s/1980s).”
- https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2022/03/10/the-polarization-in-todays-congress-has-roots-that-go-back-decades/
Backs: “This is tracked via DW-NOMINATE scores (based on roll-call votes), which place lawmakers on a liberal-conservative spectrum.”
- https://scienceinsights.org/how-political-polarization-has-changed-over-time/
Backs: “The mid-20th century was an outlier of greater bipartisanship and overlap.”
- https://www.psypost.org/american-issue-polarization-surged-after-2008-as-the-left-moved-further-left/
Backs: “The same methods found no clear equivalent rise in issue polarization worldwide.”
- https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2014/06/12/political-polarization-in-the-american-public/
Backs: “Pew Research and other studies similarly document growing ideological consistency (more people holding consistently liberal or conservative views) and less overlap between the parties’ supporters since the 1990s.”
- https://newsamaritans.substack.com/p/feeling-thermometers-a-national-cooling
Backs: “In-party warmth has been relatively stable or declined modestly, while out-party ratings have plummeted (e.g., average out-party ratings dropping toward the mid-20s or lower in recent data).”
- https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2022/08/09/rising-partisan-antipathy-widening-party-gap-in-presidential-job-approval/
Backs: ““Very unfavorable” views of the other party have more than doubled in Pew data since the 1990s; many partisans now see the other side’s policies as a threat to the nation’s well-being, and negative stereotypes (immoral, unpatriotic, etc.) have intensified.”
- https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/american-political-science-review/article/abs/testing-the-robustness-of-the-anes-feeling-thermometer-indicators-of-affective-polarization/A08F7F68F4DF4F80020EAB1D9440C02E
Backs: “Some of the measured rise may be mildly inflated by survey mode changes (e.g., online vs. in-person), but the underlying increase in out-party animus is robust.”
- https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/07/31/opinion/political-violence-history-division.html
Backs: “Some historians and commentators argue current divisions, while intense and partisan-sorted, are not uniquely severe in substance or potential for breakdown.”
- https://fsi.stanford.edu/news/polarization-united-states-reconsidered
Backs: “Americans still share many values, and latent (non-partisan) value divides have been more stable in some analyses.”