Is it too late to reverse climate change?
Is reversal still possible? I'll pull the latest science on what can — and can't — be undone.
No - but it depends on what you mean by "reverse."
Scientists say we cannot quickly undo the climate change that has already happened, but it is not too late to stop making it worse and avoid the most catastrophic outcomes.
1. Some change is already locked in and irreversible on human timescales
> Humans have caused major climate changes to happen already, and we have set in motion more changes still
NASA explains:
> However, if we stopped emitting greenhouse gases today, the rise in global temperatures would begin to flatten within a few years. Temperatures would then plateau but remain well-elevated for many, many centuries
And more generally:
> Humans have caused major climate changes to happen already, and we have set in motion more changes still. However, if we stopped emitting greenhouse gases today, the rise in global temperatures would begin to flatten within a few years. Temperatures would then plateau but remain well-elevated for many, many centuries
> While the effects of human activities on Earth's climate to date are irreversible on the timescale of humans alive today, every little bit of avoided future temperature increases results in less warming that would otherwise persist for essentially forever
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) says the same:
> Many of the changes observed in the climate are unprecedented in thousands, if not hundreds of thousands of years, and some of the changes already set in motion — such as continued sea level rise — are irreversible over hundreds to thousands of years
> Many changes to the climate due to past and future greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are now irreversible for the next millennia – especially those in the ocean, including melting ice caps and rising sea levels
> The damage could be even longer-lasting for the world's oceans, ice sheets and sea levels, where changes will be "irreversible for centuries to millennia"
> The IPCC finds that many changes caused by past and future greenhouse gas emissions are irreversible for centuries to millennia, especially changes in the ocean, ice sheets, and global sea level
That is why:
> It could take as long as 1,000 years after a complete halt of greenhouse gas emissions for environmental measures like sea level and ocean surface temperature to return to pre-industrial levels [source: NOAA]
And also:
> It could take as long as 1,000 years after a complete halt of greenhouse gases for environmental measures like sea level and ocean surface temperature to return to pre-industrial levels [source: NOAA]
In other words:
> Completely reversing climate change overnight is not possible. However, we can significantly reduce its impacts by lowering greenhouse gas emissions and restoring natural ecosystems
2. It is NOT too late to limit future warming
The key message from NASA and the IPCC is that every fraction of a degree we prevent matters, and benefits happen quickly:
> The benefits of reduced greenhouse gas emissions occur on the same timescale as the political decisions that lead to those reductions
> There is a time lag between what we do and when we feel it, but that lag is less than a decade
> Without major action to reduce emissions, global temperature is on track to rise by 2.5°C to 4.5°C (4.5°F to 8°F) by 2100, according to the latest estimates
> But it may not be too late to avoid or limit some of the worst effects of climate change
NASA frames the solution as a two-tier approach:
> “Mitigation” – reducing the flow of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere
> “Adaptation” – learning to live with, and adapt to, the climate change that has already been set in motion
The IPCC and other experts emphasize the same optimism:
> While some effects of climate change are irreversible, it is not too late to act
> It will never be too late to take action for the climate
> No, it's never too late to do anything
And:
> “Every tenth of a degree we avoid still means less damage.”
> While hopes of limiting global warming at 1.5C are rapidly fading, climate experts stress that “every additional tenth of a degree matters”
Bottom line:
That is why scientists say the best time to act was yesterday, the second-best time is now — the longer we delay, the harder and more expensive reversal becomes.