Is political polarization worse than it's been in the past?

Both sidesSays it is contestedSources conflict

Sources 1 and 2 support rising polarization in recent decades, while source 3 argues current divisions pale beside the Civil War era.

Polarization is debatable — I'll pull recent studies comparing today's divide to past eras.

Is political polarization worse than in the past? The answer depends on what time period you compare to:

1. Compared to the last 50-100 years: Yes, by most measures

•Ideologically farther apart: A Pew Research Center analysis from 2022 found Democrats and Republicans are farther apart ideologically today than at any time in the past 50 years.

•Vanishing middle in Congress: In the 117th U.S. Congress from 2021 to 2023, there were about two dozen moderate Democrats and Republicans. For comparison, there were more than 160 moderates five decades earlier during the 92nd U.S. Congress from 1971-1972.

> "As Democrats have grown more liberal over time and Republicans much more conservative, the 'middle' ... has vanished," Pew said.

•Most polarized Congress since Reconstruction: Using the widely accepted DW-NOMINATE metric that places every senator and representative on the same ideological scale, political scientists Keith Poole and Howard Rosenthal find that congressional parties, after decades of relatively little polarization, began pulling apart in the mid-1970s. Today they say, "Congress is now more polarized than at any time since the end of Reconstruction."

Other analysis using the same data shows Congress today is more divided than at any time in the last 150 years.

•Affective polarization - disliking the other side - has soared:

•Pew Research Center provides a longitudinal measure: In 1994, only 17% of Republicans and 16% of Democrats reported very unfavorable views of the opposing party. By 2016, those numbers had risen to 58% of Republicans and 55% of Democrats.

•Another measure defines affective polarization as the percentage of voters who view counterparts in the opposing party as "very unfavorable" — which has soared from about 20 percent in 2000 to 60 percent in 2020, according to the Pew Research Center.

•Longitudinal analyses demonstrate that, across all four types of indicators, affective polarization has markedly increased.

Overall, the findings point to a substantial increase over time in levels of affective polarization in the United States, unparalleled in other democracies. Researchers measuring affective polarization across 9 wealthy democracies found it has increased more dramatically in the U.S. since the late 1970s than in the eight other countries examined.

Pew reports also note Americans are more ideologically polarized today than they've been in at least two decades and more political polarization in the United States than at any time in the past two decades, and that polarization in the United States is more pronounced now than in the past -- at least among members.

2. Compared to the entire span of American history: No

Historians caution that current divisions "pale in comparison to those of the mid-19th century".

> "The most divisive time in our history was in the years leading up to the Civil War"

Between Abraham Lincoln's election in November 1860 and the surrender of Robert E. Lee's Confederate army at Appomattox in April 1865, the nation literally broke apart.

That period saw:

•More than 3 million men take up arms

•Four years of civil war produced at least 620,000 military deaths – the equivalent of approximately 6.5 million dead in the United States of 2020

•Physical violence in Congress itself, such as when U.S. Rep. Preston Brooks caned Sen. Charles Sumner into bloody insensibility on the floor of the Senate chamber in 1856

•Seven slaveholding states seceded between Dec. 20 and Feb. 1, 1861, with four more following

As one historian put it: To compare anything that has transpired in the past few years to this cataclysmic upheaval represents a spectacular lack of understanding about American history.

No political issue in 2020 approaches slavery in the mid-19th century in terms of potential divisiveness.

3. Important nuance: Elite vs. mass polarization, and perception vs. reality

•Scholars generally agree polarization is severe, but some argue the public is less polarized than elites and media suggest. Stanford political scientist Morris Fiorina concluded "the country as a whole is no more polarized than it was a generation ago".

•Similarly, researcher De-Wit argues that polarization in the US can feel much worse than it is: "Political groups have moved further apart in recent years, but these divisions are still fuzzy, and Americans are not split into entirely opposing tribes when it comes to the issues."

In short: Perceptions that the U.S. is more divided than a few decades ago are supported by data on Congress, ideology, and partisan animosity. But the claim that the U.S. has never been more divided before is not supported historically — the Civil War and Reconstruction eras were far more violently and fundamentally polarized.

Citations (3)

1dailymiaminews.comLow provenance
Political polarization is a dating love-block and it may be worse in Trump's second term - Daily Miami News
Backs: “The answer depends on what time period you compare to: 1. Compared to the last 50-100 years: Yes, by most measures. Ideologically farther apart: A Pew Research Center analysis from 2022 found Democrats and Republicans are farther apart ideologically today than at any time in the past 50 years.”
evidence, article, points to yes. Claim: Pew's 2022 analysis found Democrats and Republicans are farther apart ideologically than at any time in the past 50 years.
2bunkhistory.orgBlogs and newsletters
The Polarized Congress of Today Has its Roots in the 1970s
Backs: “"As Democrats have grown more liberal over time and Republicans much more conservative, the 'middle' ... has vanished," Pew said. Most polarized Congress since Reconstruction: Using the widely accepted DW-NOMINATE metric that places every senator and representative on the same ideological scale, political scientists…”
evidence, article, points to yes. Claim: Congress has vanishing moderates and is the most polarized since Reconstruction, with parties pulling apart since the mid-1970s per DW-NOMINATE.
3govexec.comNews and mediaquality 0.87
Think the U.S. is More Polarized Than Ever? You Don’t Know History
Backs: “Pew reports also note Americans are more ideologically polarized today than they've been in at least two decades and more political polarization in the United States than at any time in the past two decades, and that polarization in the United States is more pronounced now than in the past -- at least among members.…”
evidence, article, points to no. Claim: Historians say current divisions pale beside the mid-19th century; the Civil War era was the most divisive time in American history.