Is voter fraud a problem in the US?
Short answer: No, not in the way it's often portrayed—actual voter fraud is extremely rare in the U.S., but perceptions of fraud are widespread and highly politically polarized.
What the research shows
Academic consensus: Multiple studies over the past two decades have found essentially no evidence of significant fraud. Research conducted during the past two decades has concluded that there is no evidence of significant election fraud in contemporary American national elections.
The numbers are vanishingly small, no matter which database is used:
Even high-profile Trump administration inquiries into fraud came up empty-handed: even former president Trump's inquiries into voter fraud have shown that instances of voter fraud remain exceedingly rare across the United States.
Why the perception gap?
There's a striking disconnect between the data and public belief. A 2024 survey of over 2,000 registered voters found substantial proportions of U.S. registered voters believe that these types of election fraud are common, and partisanship correlates strongly with endorsement of types of election fraud, with Republicans consistently more likely to state that types of election fraud are common, even when controlling for other factors. The same research also found that conspiratorial thinking is strongly correlated with belief in the occurrence of types of election fraud, even when controlling for partisanship.
Some of the confusion stems from misunderstanding normal election processes—for example, observers sometimes wonder why reported results shift from one party to another in the days after an election, but researchers have shown these shifts are not due to fraud, rather they arise from distinct patterns in the timing of ballot return, processing, and tabulation.
Bottom line
The empirical evidence—from academic political scientists, the Brennan Center, Brookings, and even conservative-leaning databases like Heritage Foundation's—converges on the same conclusion: documented voter fraud occurs, but at rates so low (often in the thousandths or millionths of a percent) that it has no plausible effect on election outcomes. The more significant political issue is the belief that fraud is widespread, which persists largely along partisan lines despite the data.
Citations (10)
- American Views About Election Fraud in 2024
Source excerpt: “### 1 Introduction Research conducted during the past two decades has concluded that there is no evidence of significant election fraud in contempora...”
evidence, official document, points to no. Claim: Research over the past two decades has concluded there is no evidence of significant election fraud in contemporary American national elections.
- Debunking the Voter Fraud Myth
Source excerpt: “A 2014 study that examined impersonation fraud both at the polls and by mail ballot ... # Debunking the Voter Fraud Myth - The Brennan Center’s semin...”
statistic, article, points to no. Claim: Brennan Center found most reported incidents trace to clerical errors, with voter impersonation rates between 0.0003 and 0.0025 percent.
- Debunking the Voter Fraud Myth
Source excerpt: “- A comprehensive 2014 study published in *The Washington Post* found 31 credible instances of impersonation fraud from 2000 to 2014, out of more than...”
statistic, article, points to no. Claim: A study covering 2000–2014 found 31 credible instances of impersonation fraud out of more than 1 billion ballots.
- Voter Fraud in US Elections? What the Data and Research Shows - Newsweek
Source excerpt: “In the case of Arizona—one of the states most closely watched following the 2020 election—that meant around 42.6 million votes cast with only 36 cases...”
statistic, article, points to no. Claim: Arizona had about 42.6 million votes cast with only 36 fraud cases in Heritage database over 25 years.
- Mail voting fraud: Data points to low risk and high benefits for voters
Source excerpt: “We find an average total mail voting fraud percentage across the 2016, 2018, 2020, and 2022 general elections of only 0.000043%, or about four cases o...”
statistic, article, points to no. Claim: Mail voting fraud averaged 0.000043% across 2016-2022 general elections, about four cases per 10 million mail votes.
- States work to calm fears over rare instances of voter fraud
Source excerpt: “**Wisconsin:** 69 reported cases of fraud over 20 years among 45 million ballots cast Georgia audited its 2022 election and found over the last 25 ye...”
statistic, article, points to no. Claim: Georgia's 2022 audit found fewer than 1,700 suspected noncitizens tried to register over 25 years, and none cast ballots.
- The Voter Fraud Illusion - Kettering Foundation
Source excerpt: “Even former president Trump’s inquiries into voter fraud have shown that instances of voter fraud remain exceedingly rare across the United States. ”
evidence, article, points to no. Claim: Even Trump administration inquiries showed voter fraud instances remain exceedingly rare across the United States.
- Frontiers
Source excerpt: “In our analysis, we show that substantial proportions of U.S. registered voters believe that these types of election fraud are common. Our multivari...”
evidence, article, points to no. Claim: A 2024 survey found substantial proportions of voters believe election fraud is common, with Republicans more likely to say so.
- Frontiers
Source excerpt: “We also find that conspiratorial thinking is strongly correlated with belief in the occurrence of types of election fraud, even when we control for pa...”
evidence, article, points to no. Claim: Conspiratorial thinking strongly correlates with belief in election fraud, even controlling for partisanship.
- American Views About Election Fraud in 2024
Source excerpt: “A good example is the "blue shift" in reporting of election results after Election day; observers sometimes may wonder why reported election results s...”
evidence, official document, points to no. Claim: Shifts in reported results after Election Day arise from timing of ballot return, processing, and tabulation, not fraud.