What are the threats of today's political climate in the US?

Today's political climate is complex - I'll gather current data on the key threats facing the US.

Threats of today's U.S. political climate are widely described as interconnected, involving elections, institutions, trust, and safety. Major themes identified in 2025-2026 surveys and risk assessments include:

1. Erosion of Democratic Institutions and Trust

The health of US democracy has declined over the last decade owing in part to growing political polarization, distrust of elected officials and public institutions, and the proliferation of misinformation online.

In a 2024 Chicago Council Survey, two-thirds of Americans (67%) say weakening democracy in the United States poses a critical threat to vital US interests in the next 10 years, more than any other threat presented to respondents.

A political science analysis describes four threats converging for the first time: political polarization; conflict over who belongs as a full member of the political community; rising economic inequality; and the concentration of power in the nation's top leader.

The Eurasia Group's Top Risks 2026 report named the U.S. political situation the #1 global risk, stating: "The world's most powerful country is in the throes of a political revolution. In our lifetimes, we have never witnessed an American president so committed to and so capable of changing the political system and, accordingly, the United States's role in the world". The same report summary cites a 'political revolution' and weakened institutional checks under President Trump.

2. Election Integrity and Legitimacy Concerns

Ahead of the 2026 midterms, Americans report high concern about election integrity and democratic processes. Top concerns include political leaders pressuring election officials to change election outcomes (67% are concerned “a great deal” or “a fair amount”), ballots not being properly handled, counted or secured (57%), and voter intimidation near polling places (52%).

Nearly three-quarters of Americans (73%) report at least a fair amount of concern about multiple aspects of the election process.

Broader system concerns include:

•political leaders taking actions they know may be illegal (80% express a great deal or fair amount of concern)

•wealthy people or organizations making large, anonymous donations to political causes (78%)

•gerrymandering, or changing voting district boundaries to favor a political party or candidate (77%)

Partisan differences are pronounced:

•Democrats are more likely to worry about leaders pressuring officials (77% vs. 56% Republicans) and voter intimidation (60% vs. 46%)

•Republicans are more likely to worry about ballots being improperly handled (66% vs. 52% Democrats) and about ineligible people casting ballots - expressed by 78% of Republicans, compared with 36% of Democrats

Other surveys found majorities also fear a federal government willing to declare a state of emergency to stop elections, and ICE showing up at polling places to intimidate voters.

Additional election risks cited by analysts include:

•Escalating rhetoric and reduced federal protection have made election officials and poll workers targets of harassment and threats, increasing the risk of staffing shortages

•Concerns about federal intervention in counting or certification and seizure of ballots or machines

3. Rising Political Violence and Threats to Officials

The FBI and Department of Homeland Security have repeatedly identified domestic violent extremism — spanning ideologies from far-right to far-left — as one of the most persistent terrorism threats facing the country.

Research from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED) found that political violence incidents in the U.S. have trended upward since 2020, with election periods serving as consistent flashpoints.

Recent analysis documented:

•The June killing of Minnesota state legislator Melissa Hortman, a Democrat, the September shooting of conservative activist Charlie Kirk, and reported threats against Republican Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene in November, have drawn attention to the risk of social instability and targeted violence

•Threats ranged from vague menaces to explicit promises of torture, rape and murder and also named or targeted officials' family members and staff, with actual incidents including assassination attempts against Donald Trump, the killing of Charlie Kirk, the assassination of Minnesota leader Melissa Hortman and her husband, and a firebombing at Gov. Josh Shapiro's home

•At least 44 governors, as well as their staff and families, have been subjected to violent threats over the past two years, and more than half of the country's secretaries of state have received threats

Polling in 2024 found 49% of Americans viewed political violence around the election as a critical threat, with partisan splits (65% Democrats vs. 33% Republicans).

4. Extreme Polarization and Social Fragmentation

A July 2025 NPR/PBS News/Marist poll found that around three-quarters of Americans say the country's divisiveness poses a "serious threat to democracy" .

Polarization reduces potential for compromise and collaboration and is associated with:

•inability to reach bipartisan consensus even when both sides agree democracy is threatened

•elections that may intensify political divisions but fall short of delivering major policy or governance changes

An emerging concept described in 2026 is "violent populism" - where substantial segments of the public increasingly accept physical force as a legitimate tool to gain, preserve, or defend political power.

5. Misinformation, Disinformation and Foreign Influence

Perhaps one of the most significant impacts of misinformation and disinformation is the erosion of trust in institutions, including the media, the government, and the scientific community.

Other impacts cited:

•Disinformation erodes trust, fuels political polarization, and can even incite violence

•In extreme cases, disinformation can incite violence, as seen in incidents of hate crimes or politically motivated attacks

•The United States is marked by low media trust, populist rhetoric, political polarization and a highly fragmented and politicized media environment, with low resilience to online disinformation

According to a 2026 report, 7 in 10 Americans consider disinformation a major problem, ranking it third among most pressing issues.

Foreign threats further complicate the landscape. U.S. intelligence recently identified a Russian disinformation campaign using AI-generated deepfake videos to impersonate celebrities and outlets like CNN, BBC, and The New York Times. Goals of such campaigns include to undermine confidence in democratic institutions, increase polarization, and influence elections.

More than half of Americans (54%) say foreign interference in American elections poses a critical threat.

Social media use is correlated with higher concern: concern about voter intimidation rises from 48% among non-users to 60% among heavy users, and concern about ballots being improperly handled rises from 48% to 65%.

6. Chilling Effect on Civic Participation

•Fear of political doxing may push some Americans out of public life. A March 2026 study found participants associated it with threats to their safety, employment, reputation and ability to participate in public life.

•Harassment of election officials, poll workers, local leaders, and judges contributes to staffing shortages and operational errors, and deters people from running for office or serving in election administration.

7. Governance and Policy Paralysis

Because of deep polarization and distrust, compromise becomes difficult, affecting:

•Confidence that ballots will be properly handled and counted and whether people accept election outcomes

•Perceptions that government is not paying enough attention to critical pocketbook issues like inflation and cost of living

•Reduced confidence in information environment, with Americans expressing concern about whether they have enough information to make well-informed decisions

Citations (2)

1globalaffairs.orgNonprofits and think tanks
Americans Say Weakening Democracy Is Most Critical Threat to US | Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Backs: “Major themes identified in 2025-2026 surveys and risk assessments include: 1. Erosion of Democratic Institutions and Trust. The health of US democracy has declined over the last decade owing in part to growing political polarization, distrust of elected officials and public institutions, and the proliferation of…”
2gallup.comCompanies
Election Concerns Run High Ahead of 2026 Midterms
Backs: “Ahead of the 2026 midterms, Americans report high concern about election integrity and democratic processes. Top concerns include political leaders pressuring election officials to change election outcomes (67% are concerned “a great deal” or “a fair amount”), ballots not being properly handled, counted or secured…”