Is voter fraud a problem in the US?

Is voter fraud a concern in the US? I'll review national data and research to gauge its scale and frequency.

In the United States voter fraud exists as a federal crime, but is documented as extremely rare relative to total votes cast and has not been shown to affect national election outcomes.

Definition and types:

The United States government defines voter or ballot fraud as one of three broad categories of federal election crimes, the other two being campaign finance crimes and civil rights violations. Types of fraud include voter impersonation or in-person voter fraud, mail-in or absentee ballot fraud, illegal voting by noncitizens, and double voting.

Frequency and scale:

Multiple reviews describe electoral fraud as extremely rare in the United States and voter fraud is extremely rare in the United States.

•An Associated Press investigation identified fewer than 475 potential cases of voter fraud out of more than 25 million votes cast across six battleground states in the 2020 presidential election.

•The best available public studies and official reviews place the rate of proven voter fraud at effectively zero for national elections — measured in tiny fractions of a percent (examples range from ~0.00000017% to ~0.0000845% in cited analyses) — and do not support claims of fraud large enough to alter presidential outcomes.

•Comprehensive reviews put the rate between roughly 0.0003% and 0.0025% based on decades of data, with only a few hundred potential problematic votes across tens of millions cast.

•A Massachusetts Institute of Technology study covering 20 years found mail-in ballot fraud occurs only in "0.00006 percent" of individual votes nationally.

Nationwide databases show the same pattern:

•A News21 journalism project published a database of 2,068 alleged voter fraud cases reported between 2000 and 2012, representing about 0.000003 cases for every vote cast.

•As of November 2023, the Heritage Foundation's database listed 1,465 proven cases of voter fraud in 44 years, an average of 33 cases per year. In Texas, for example, Heritage found 103 cases between 2005 and 2022 in a period where 107 million ballots were cast, or 0.000096% of all ballots cast.

Analysis of the Heritage database:

An analysis by the Brennan Center for Justice found the numbers reveal the opposite of rampant fraud:

•In reviewing billions of votes cast, the Heritage Foundation identified just 10 cases involving in-person impersonation fraud at the polls

•The database includes only 41 cases involving non-citizens registering, voting, or attempting to vote over five decades

•Claims that the database contains almost 1,100 proven instances of voter fraud are grossly exaggerated and devoid of context

Types differ in prevalence:

•Mail-in voter fraud occurs more often than in-person voter fraud.

•While quite rare, experts say fraud occurs more often with mailed-in votes than with in-person voting.

•Voter impersonation, or in-person voter fraud, occurs when someone votes in-person under the identity of someone else. It is extremely rare.

•Between 1978 and 2018, no elections were overturned by courts due to voter impersonation fraud.

•Between 1978 and 2018, at least fourteen elections were invalidated or overturned by courts due to absentee ballot fraud, twelve of which were at the local level.

Context:

•Fraud is more likely to occur in and affect the outcome of local elections, where the potential impact of a small number of votes can be greater.

•In the last half-century, there have been only scattered examples of electoral fraud affecting the outcomes of United States elections, mostly on the local level.

•Electoral fraud was significantly more prevalent in earlier United States history, particularly in the 19th and early 20th centuries.

•Some experts have said voter fraud can be difficult to prove or find.

False accusations also have a long history, and since the 2016 and 2020 elections have often been associated with Donald Trump and the election denial movement.

Citations (3)

1wikipedia.orgEncyclopedias and referencequality 0.83
Electoral fraud in the United States - Wikipedia
Backs: “In the United States voter fraud exists as a federal crime, but is documented as extremely rare relative to total votes cast and has not been shown to affect national election outcomes. Definition and types: The United States government defines voter or ballot fraud as one of three broad categories of federal election…”
2ddia.orgNot yet classified
Election Fraud Claims Are Spreading Again. Here’s What’s Happening in Five Key States
Backs: “Multiple reviews describe electoral fraud as extremely rare in the United States and voter fraud is extremely rare in the United States. An Associated Press investigation identified fewer than 475 potential cases of voter fraud out of more than 25 million votes cast across six battleground states in the 2020…”
3brennancenter.orgNonprofits and think tanks
Analysis: Heritage Foundation's Database Undermines Claims of Recent Voter Fraud
Backs: “Analysis of the Heritage database: An analysis by the Brennan Center for Justice found the numbers reveal the opposite of rampant fraud: In reviewing billions of votes cast, the Heritage Foundation identified just 10 cases involving in-person impersonation fraud at the polls”