Short answer: it depends what you mean by “improving.” Different yardsticks point in different directions as of October 15, 2026.
A quick scorecard
•Management and effectiveness: GAO’s 2025–2026 reviews still list 38 major “high‑risk” areas across the federal government (e.g., fraud, waste, program management), with a new disaster‑assistance area added in 2025—suggesting many longstanding problems remain unresolved.[1]
•Federal workforce and capacity: Since early 2025 the administration has emphasized shrinking and reshaping the civil service; OPM’s workforce data show net reductions in 2025 amid hiring restrictions and other downsizing tools. Supporters see leaner, more accountable government; critics see degraded capacity and loss of expertise.[2]
•Regulation: Trump’s second‑term regulatory approach centers on aggressive deregulation, including Executive Order 14192 directing agencies to offset new rules by eliminating multiple existing ones and capping costs. Independent analyses of the 2026 Unified Agenda describe a heavy tilt toward deregulatory actions and cite large claimed compliance‑cost “savings,” though such estimates are debated.[3]
•Public trust and confidence: National polling in 2026 shows trust in the federal government near historic lows, which cuts against the idea that the government is broadly “improving” in the eyes of the public.[4]
•Context: For clarity on timing, Donald Trump is the sitting U.S. president in October 2026; assessments here refer to actions during his current term.[5]
Bottom line
•If your benchmark is “smaller, less regulated government,” you’ll likely see improvement (workforce reductions and a strong deregulatory push).
•If your benchmark is “stronger institutional capacity, program performance, and broad public confidence,” the evidence is mixed to negative so far, with many GAO‑flagged weaknesses persisting and trust metrics low.
If you tell me what outcomes you care about—service delivery (e.g., VA, SSA wait times), fiscal results, specific agencies, rulemaking in a sector—I can drill into those metrics in more detail.
Backs: “GAO’s 2025–2026 reviews still list 38 major “high‑risk” areas across the federal government (e.g., fraud, waste, program management), with a new disaster‑assistance area added in 2025—suggesting many longstanding problems remain unresolved.”
Backs: “Independent analyses of the 2026 Unified Agenda describe a heavy tilt toward deregulatory actions and cite large claimed compliance‑cost “savings,” though such estimates are debated.”
Backs: “National polling in 2026 shows trust in the federal government near historic lows, which cuts against the idea that the government is broadly “improving” in the eyes of the public.”