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Grok 4.5Oct 15, 2026x-ai/grok-4.5-20260708

Are prices lower in stores compared to a year ago?

No, prices in stores are generally not lower compared to a year ago (as of the latest data through September 2026); they are higher on average, though the picture varies by category, with some items or groups down and others up more sharply.[1]

The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) for all items rose 3.7% over the 12 months ending September 2026 (after a 0.6% monthly rise), up from 3.4% the prior month. This reflects broader inflation pressures, including a major energy spike (energy index +20.4% YoY, with gasoline +34.2%), partly linked to geopolitical factors like the Iran-related conflict. Core CPI (all items less food and energy) was up 2.6% YoY.[1]

Key store-relevant categories (YoY changes to September 2026)

•Food at home (groceries/supermarkets): +1.8%. Food overall +2.5%; food away from home (restaurants) +3.5%. Within groceries, fruits/vegetables and nonalcoholic beverages rose more, while dairy was down slightly and meats/poultry/fish/eggs were roughly flat to mildly up.[1]
•Commodities less food and energy (many core store goods): +0.7%.
•Apparel: +3.4%.
•New vehicles: +0.6%; used cars and trucks: –1.5%.
•Medical care commodities: –3.3%.
•Other notes: Household furnishings were roughly flat recently; some recreation/education-related items rose.[1]

These figures come from BLS price collection across thousands of retail establishments. They measure average prices paid and account for factors like promotions, but overall indexes show net increases for most basket items shoppers encounter in stores.

Context and nuances

•Earlier periods (e.g., 2024): There was more goods deflation and widespread retailer price cuts/rollbacks (Walmart, Target, Aldi, etc., on thousands of items) as inflation cooled and consumers pushed back. Goods prices were flat to lower YoY in parts of 2024, with heavy discounting.[2]
•Recent dynamics: By late 2025 into 2026, inflation reaccelerated somewhat. Energy costs rose sharply, feeding into broader prices. Some reports note tariffs contributing to goods inflation in 2025–early 2026 (without them, certain goods prices might have fallen). Retailers continue promotions and selective cuts (e.g., some food makers lowering prices for volume), and individual items can be cheaper due to competition, private labels, or sales—but averages are higher.[3]
•Perception vs. data: Shoppers often feel prices are much higher due to cumulative inflation since ~2019–2020 (overall CPI up substantially over multi-year spans) and sticky categories like shelter/services. “Shrinkflation” (smaller packages at similar prices) has also occurred but had limited overall CPI impact.[4]
•Not uniform: Used cars, certain medical goods, and some specific groceries or durables have declined. Energy (gas stations) is much higher. International differences exist (e.g., some UK shop price indices showed milder rises or deflation in non-food earlier).

In short, while discounts and category-specific drops exist and inflation has moderated from post-pandemic peaks, average prices for goods and groceries in U.S. stores are higher than a year earlier, consistent with positive CPI readings. For the most current or local details, check BLS CPI releases, retailer apps, or price trackers, as monthly data fluctuates and individual shopping baskets differ.

Citations (4)

  1. 1bls.govGovernment
    https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_10142026.htm

    Backs: “No, prices in stores are generally not lower compared to a year ago (as of the latest data through September 2026); they are higher on average, though the picture varies by category, with some items or groups down and others up more sharply.”

  2. 2retailbrew.comNews and media
    https://www.retailbrew.com/stories/2024/12/18/2024-was-the-year-of-discounts-price-cuts-and-more-affordable-assortments

    Backs: “Goods prices were flat to lower YoY in parts of 2024, with heavy discounting.”

  3. 3businessinsider.comNews and mediaquality 0.80
    https://www.businessinsider.com/us-inflation-trump-tariffs-impact-consumer-prices-goods-economy-trade-2026-10

    Backs: “Retailers continue promotions and selective cuts (e.g., some food makers lowering prices for volume), and individual items can be cheaper due to competition, private labels, or sales—but averages are higher.”

  4. 4npr.orgNews and mediaquality 0.93
    https://www.npr.org/transcripts/nx-s1-5241014

    Backs: ““Shrinkflation” (smaller packages at similar prices) has also occurred but had limited overall CPI impact.”