Is political polarization worse than it's been in the past?
Yes, by multiple standard measures—especially in the United States—political polarization is worse than it has been for much of the past several decades (roughly since the mid-20th century post-WWII consensus), and it has reached highs not seen in living memory for peacetime politics. However, it is not entirely unprecedented in U.S. history (e.g., Civil War era or late 19th century), violence and social upheaval were often greater in periods like the 1960s–1970s, and trends are not uniform worldwide or across all dimensions.[1]
Polarization has two main forms: ideological (diverging policy/issue positions) and affective (emotional dislike/distrust of the other side). Both have risen, with elite (congressional) polarization particularly clear and mass (public) trends showing sorting, consistency, and animosity.
Congressional/Elite Polarization
DW-NOMINATE scores (based on roll-call votes) show Democrats and Republicans in Congress farther apart ideologically than at any point in the past 50 years, with essentially no ideological overlap between the parties in the House since the early 2000s (and Senate shortly after). Moderates have nearly vanished (dozens today vs. 160+ in the early 1970s).[2]
Voteview data and related analyses confirm rising party mean differences and declining moderates/overlap over recent decades.[4]
Mass Ideological Polarization and Sorting
Public opinion has polarized less extremely than elites in some views, but gaps have widened substantially:
Some research finds Democrats becoming more heterogeneous post-2010 on certain dimensions, and latent value clusters (e.g., moral/religious) more stable than partisan alignment suggests, but overall partisan ideological distance has grown.[7]
Affective Polarization
This has risen especially sharply in the U.S. and stands out internationally:
Social media and internet use are widely perceived as worsening divisions (rising shares say this in many countries, high and stable in the U.S.).[11]
Historical Context and Caveats
In short, U.S. political polarization—particularly partisan sorting, elite voting cohesion, and mutual dislike—is worse than in the relatively recent past and high by modern democratic standards, contributing to gridlock, eroded norms, and social tension. It echoes earlier American high-polarization eras but occurs in a different media, demographic, and institutional context. Whether it worsens, stabilizes, or reverses depends on leadership, institutions, and events.
Citations (13)
- https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/07/31/opinion/political-violence-history-division.html
Backs: “However, it is not entirely unprecedented in U.S. history (e.g., Civil War era or late 19th century), violence and social upheaval were often greater in periods like the 1960s–1970s, and trends are not uniform worldwide or across all dimensions.”
- https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2022/03/10/the-polarization-in-todays-congress-has-roots-that-go-back-decades/
Backs: “Moderates have nearly vanished (dozens today vs. 160+ in the early 1970s).”
- https://scienceinsights.org/how-political-polarization-has-changed-over-time/
Backs: “Bipartisan coalitions common in the mid-20th century have largely disappeared.”
- https://voteview.com/articles/party_polarization
Backs: “Voteview data and related analyses confirm rising party mean differences and declining moderates/overlap over recent decades.”
- https://www.cam.ac.uk/stories/political-division-united-states
Backs: “Polarization may have leveled somewhat recently but remains far higher than pre-2008.”
- https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2017/10/05/1-partisan-divides-over-political-values-widen/
Backs: “Partisan gaps on values, guns, climate, abortion, etc., have widened dramatically.”
- https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-025-02251-0
Backs: “Some research finds Democrats becoming more heterogeneous post-2010 on certain dimensions, and latent value clusters (e.g., moral/religious) more stable than partisan alignment suggests, but overall partisan ideological distance has grown.”
- https://goodauthority.org/news/americans-views-of-the-opposite-party-have-declined-even-further/
Backs: “The gap (affective polarization) roughly doubled in recent decades.”
- https://dx.doi.org/10.1146%2Fannurev-polisci-051117-073034
Backs: “Willingness to have a child marry across party lines has risen dramatically from near-zero decades ago.”
- https://web.stanford.edu/~gentzkow/research/cross-polar.pdf
Backs: “The U.S. is unusual in having roughly equal-sized left and right clusters.”
- https://www.pewresearch.org/chart/growing-shares-across-countries-say-the-internet-and-social-media-have-made-people-more-divided/
Backs: “Social media and internet use are widely perceived as worsening divisions (rising shares say this in many countries, high and stable in the U.S.).”
- https://www.journalofdemocracy.org/articles/polarization-is-not-the-problem/
Backs: “Polarization can be a symptom of deeper identity/belonging conflicts.”
- https://newsroom.co.nz/2026/10/09/nzers-are-less-politically-divided-than-they-think/
Backs: “Trends vary globally (e.g., some countries show declines or stability in affective polarization).”