Will AI create or take away more job opportunities?

AI's impact on jobs is hotly debated — I'll survey current forecasts on whether creation or loss will come out ahead.

AI will do both — and most major forecasts expect it to create slightly more jobs than it destroys in aggregate, but with very uneven distribution and a difficult transition.

The headline numbers point to net creation

•The World Economic Forum's Future of Jobs Report 2025 estimates that technological and other major economic trends could create 170 million jobs and displace 92 million by 2030, resulting in a net increase of 78 million jobs. The same report is summarized elsewhere as 170 million new roles created globally against 92 million displaced, a net gain of 78 million positions.

•For the U.S., a McKinsey Global Institute base case finds AI and automation will cut demand for about 36 million U.S. jobs by 2035 while growth elsewhere creates about 41 million, so still net positive.

McKinsey frames it as:
> “The next decade’s challenge is mobility, not scarcity,” they wrote.

In other words, the jobs will exist, but getting workers into them is the problem.

Goldman Sachs and the IMF both frame AI as a net economic positive over a decade-long horizon with the same WEF modelling, though history shows the same pattern:
> “In every major occupational group that adopted computers heavily, employment grew faster than in groups that did not. Computers eliminated specific tasks within jobs — but the resulting cost reductions created so much new demand that the occupations expanded overall.”

Why AI takes jobs away

The IMF estimates that AI could affect almost 40% of jobs worldwide, with exposure reaching roughly 60% in advanced economies. Importantly, the IMF distinguishes between jobs where AI could complement workers and those where it could reduce demand for human labor.

Jobs that involve routine, repetitive tasks like administrative support or machine operation are at higher risk.

Most at-risk categories identified in recent reports:

•Lower-wage workers, people without college degrees, and employees in office and administrative support, retail and customer sales, and transportation and logistics face the greatest pressure to transition.

•The shrinking jobs are concentrated in office and administrative support, retail, and transportation, much of it lower-paid work. Lower-wage workers are 7.6 times as likely as higher-wage workers to need a new occupation.

Why AI creates jobs

1.Entirely new occupations: The emergence of roles like AI Engineers, Prompt Engineers, AI Operations Engineers, AI Security specialists, and AI Integration Engineers signals a drastic shift in the workforce as the new baselines.

2.Growth in human-centric sectors: In McKinsey's model, job growth is in healthcare, construction, and management.

3.Infrastructure and enablement: Meeting AI demand requires investment in power generation, data centers, semiconductor manufacturing, construction and networking equipment.

4.Productivity wage premium: Workers with demonstrated AI proficiency command wages 56% above comparable peers lacking those skills, and demand for automation architects is growing at 34% compound annually through 2028.

The catch: Not the same people

Even with net gains, displacement is concentrated and re-entry is hard:

•In its base case, about 11 million workers, roughly 7% of the workforce, would need to leave their occupations entirely.

•Only one in seven displaced workers has a direct path into a growing job, meaning one that needs little retraining and pays at least as much. Nearly half face what the report calls an “unpaved” path, blocked by large skill gaps or credential requirements. About 85% of growing jobs require a credential.

•Geography is the other hurdle. About 76% of growing jobs can’t be done remotely, McKinsey found, including work in hospitals, on construction sites, and in data centers.

Bottom line

> Like other technological revolutions before it, the age of AI may ultimately create more jobs than it destroys.

But the honest answer is: probably yes over the long run, but not for everyone, and not all at once.

Whether you experience AI as a job creator or job taker will depend on:

1.Task type: routine/repetitive cognitive work is more automatable than work requiring creativity, critical thinking, or interpersonal skills

2.Adaptability: 77% of employers expect to "upskill" their existing workers in response to technological change, ideally allowing workers to become more productive, not replaced entirely

3.Mobility: willingness to retrain, earn a new credential, or relocate

If you want to benefit, focus on AI complementarity — learning to use AI tools in your domain, developing human-centric skills (management, care, trades), and building credentials in growing fields — rather than competing with AI on routine tasks it does best.

Citations (2)

1michiganfinancial.comCompanies
The AI Economy (Part 4) | AI's Impact on Energy, Infrastructure, Jobs and the Economy
Backs: “AI will do both — and most major forecasts expect it to create slightly more jobs than it destroys in aggregate, but with very uneven distribution and a difficult transition. The headline numbers point to net creation. The World Economic Forum's Future of Jobs Report 2025 estimates that technological and other major…”
2alphaleaders.co.ukCompanies
McKinsey: AI will create more jobs than it kills — after destroying 11 million
Backs: “The same report is summarized elsewhere as 170 million new roles created globally against 92 million displaced, a net gain of 78 million positions. For the U.S., a McKinsey Global Institute base case finds AI and automation will cut demand for about 36 million U.S.”