Is voter fraud a problem in the US?

I'll examine current evidence on U.S. voter fraud to assess how prevalent it is.

In the U.S., documented voter fraud exists, but research and official investigations consistently find it is extremely rare relative to total votes cast, and not at a scale that would change statewide or national election outcomes.

What the data shows:

•Scholars and nonpartisan researchers who have compiled proven cases conclude instances of voter fraud are extremely uncommon relative to hundreds of millions of ballots cast.

•Multiple independent analyses put proven fraud rates at effectively zero for practical purposes:

•A Brennan Center review of elections meticulously studied for fraud found incident rates between 0.0003 percent and 0.0025 percent. Other summaries put the rate between roughly 0.0003% and 0.0025% based on decades of data

•Comprehensive reviews put the rate in federal contests at essentially zero, finding only a few hundred problematic votes across tens of millions cast in recent presidential contests

•A Massachusetts Institute of Technology study of mail ballots over two decades called mail-in fraud "exceedingly rare" at roughly 0.00006 percent of votes nationally. Brookings' review of Heritage Foundation data calculated examples such as Arizona where fraudulent votes were roughly 0.0000845 percent across decades

•A comprehensive 2014 study found 31 credible instances of impersonation fraud from 2000 to 2014, out of more than 1 billion ballots cast, and an Arizona State University project found 10 cases of voter impersonation fraud nationwide from 2000-2012

•Research has been consistent over time that voter fraud is infinitesimally rare and almost never occurs on a scale that would affect an election outcome, according to voting rights researchers, courts, commissions and prosecutorial offices.

•Court findings have been similar: The Fifth Circuit noted there were "only two convictions for in-person voter impersonation fraud out of 20 million votes cast in the decade" before Texas passed its voter ID law, and a federal court reviewing North Carolina's law noted the state "failed to identify even a single individual who has ever been charged with committing in-person voter fraud in North Carolina".

•A specialized United States Department of Justice unit formed to find federal election fraud examined the 2002 and 2004 federal elections and was able to prove that 0.00000013 percent of ballots cast were fraudulent.

How many proven cases have been documented:

The Heritage Foundation's Election Fraud Database, which tracks proven cases, is frequently cited by both sides:

•At one point the database had 1,071 such incidents, including 938 cases that have resulted in criminal convictions, 43 that have ended in civil penalties, 74 that have seen defendants enter diversion programs, and 16 that are supported by judicial or other official findings.

•More recent summaries record approximately 1,500 proven cases across the United States between 1982 and 2023 — an average of roughly 40 cases per year in a nation where 158 million ballots were cast in 2020 alone.

Heritage itself notes the database is not a comprehensive assessment and is described as a mere "sampling" and "not an exhaustive list", and that it represents the "bottom floor" not the ceiling, with the argument that most fraud goes undetected. Critics of that view argue the low numbers even in a decades-long collection show how uncommon fraud is.

What types of fraud are documented:

Federal election offenses described by the FBI include:

•Fraud by the voter: Giving false information when registering to vote, voting when ineligible, voting more than once or using someone else's name to vote

•Fraud by officials or others: Changing a ballot tally or engaging in other corrupt behavior as an elections official

Researchers typically find proven cases are individual or small-scale: falsified voter registration forms, people casting ballots in more than one jurisdiction, absentee-ballot mishandling or forgery, and isolated instances of vote buying or coercion. Other varieties investigated by the FBI include vote buying, ballot box stuffing, and voter intimidation.

Bottom line:

There is no evidence in the academic literature or government investigations for widespread, systematic voter fraud in U.S. elections, including recent national elections. Rates of proven fraud are consistently found to be extremely low, often measured in hundredths or thousandths of a percent. Isolated cases do occur and are prosecuted, which is why election administration includes safeguards like voter registration verification, ballot security, and post-election audits, but experts across studies and court reviews have concluded in-person voter impersonation and other fraud do not occur at levels that would "rig" statewide or national outcomes.

Citations (2)

1brennancenter.orgNonprofits and think tanks
Debunking the Voter Fraud Myth
Backs: “Multiple independent analyses put proven fraud rates at effectively zero for practical purposes: A Brennan Center review of elections meticulously studied for fraud found incident rates between 0.0003 percent and 0.0025 percent.”
2heritage.orgNonprofits and think tanks
The Heritage Foundation
Backs: “The Heritage Foundation's Election Fraud Database, which tracks proven cases, is frequently cited by both sides: At one point the database had 1,071 such incidents, including 938 cases that have resulted in criminal convictions, 43 that have ended in civil penalties, 74 that have seen defendants enter diversion…”