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GPT-5Oct 12, 2026openai/gpt-5-2025-08-07
Is political polarization worse than it's been in the past?
Short answer: compared to most of the 20th century, yes—by several standard metrics U.S. polarization is worse today. Compared to the most extreme periods in the 19th century (e.g., the 1850s before the Civil War), it’s not worse in terms of open political violence or system collapse.
How it depends on what you mean by “worse”:
•In Congress (elite ideological polarization): Near or at modern-record highs. Roll‑call voting shows the parties far apart with almost no ideological overlap, and party‑line votes are common.
•Among the public on policy (issue polarization): Less dramatic. Many Americans haven’t moved sharply to the extremes; instead, people have “sorted” so that party, ideology, and views on multiple issues now line up more consistently than in the mid‑20th century.
•Feelings toward the other party (affective/identity polarization): Highest in the polling era. Partisans increasingly distrust and dislike the other side, even when policy differences aren’t huge.
•Geography and elections: More nationalized and place‑based. Urban and rural areas vote very differently, split‑ticket voting has declined, and close races often hinge on a small number of places.
•Historical perspective: The mid‑20th century (roughly 1940s–1970s) was unusually low‑polarization because the parties had overlapping coalitions. The late 19th century and the 1850s were highly polarized; today’s rancor is severe by modern standards but has not reached Civil War–era breakdown.
If you want, I can share specific data series (e.g., congressional DW‑NOMINATE scores, trends in “feeling thermometer” gaps, or county‑level landslide margins) to put numbers to each point.