Are prices lower in stores compared to a year ago?
It's a mixed picture — overall prices are still higher, but some items are cheaper
Overall grocery prices are still higher than a year ago, just rising more slowly. The average price of food in the United States rose by 2.7% in the 12 months ending August, after posting an annual increase of 3% for July, according to inflation data published September 11, 2026. The USDA's latest outlook confirms this trend, with food-at-home prices forecast to rise around 2.4% for 2026.
What's gotten cheaper
Several specific items are actually priced lower than last year:
What's gotten more expensive
Beef is the biggest exception, climbing sharply. Beef and veal are forecast to rise 9.4% this year, continuing to stand out as the biggest pressure point, partly because the US cattle herd has shrunk to a 75-year low. Fresh vegetables and sugar/sweets are also rising faster than average.
The bottom line
Even with this slowdown, cumulative inflation from prior years means the overall grocery bill is still well above pre-pandemic levels — groceries are up 27.6% compared with January 2021. So while a handful of specific items (mainly eggs, and to a lesser extent dairy and chicken) are genuinely cheaper than a year ago, your total grocery bill is likely still higher overall — just climbing at a slower pace than in recent years.
Citations (8)
- Food Inflation in the United States (1968-2026)
Source excerpt: “Some of the foods that the BLS surveys every month for inflation include meats, poultry, fish, eggs, cereal, bakery products, dairy, beverages, ... #...”
- Grocery Prices Could Drop in 2026: Here's What's Actually Getting Cheaper (And What Isn't) - Govtschemes.org
Source excerpt: “USDA now expects retail egg prices to fall roughly 30% for all of 2026, after prices were already down close to 28% to 35% year-over-year by early ......”
- Some Grocery Prices Are Finally Going Down — Here’s What’s Getting Cheaper - Better Report
Source excerpt: “### Reader Favorites • Butter (-8.1%) • Salad dressing (-4.3%) • Cheese and related products (-4.2%) • Fresh whole chicken (-3.2%) • Fresh and frozen ...”
- Price Tracker September 2026: Grocery basket totals drop slightly from last month
Source excerpt: “It’s not a huge difference from August, but it’s roughly 3.6% lower than last year this time and the 7th cheapest since we started the WREG Price Trac...”
- USDA Food Price Outlook: Grocery Inflation Cut to 2.4%
Source excerpt: “- **Beef and veal:** forecast up 9.4%. ”
- USDA Food Price Outlook: Grocery Inflation Cut to 2.4%
Source excerpt: “## Beef remains the biggest pressure point Beef and veal continue to stand out in the USDA outlook, with prices forecast to rise 9.4% this year. ”
- US Grocery Price Statistics 2026: Food Inflation Guide
Source excerpt: “- Beef and veal prices have spiked by **11.8%** as the US cattle herd shrinks to a **75-year low**. ”
- Latest Grocery Price Index 2026: BLS Food CPI + USDA Outlook
Source excerpt: “Groceries +27.6%”