Is voter fraud a problem in the US?

Short answer: Voter fraud happens in the U.S., but rigorous studies and official reviews consistently find it to be rare and usually too limited to affect statewide or national outcomes. It can, however, matter in very close local races.

What the evidence shows

•Overall incidence: Election-science research finds intentional voter fraud (e.g., casting an illegal ballot on purpose) is very uncommon in modern U.S. elections.[1]

•In‑person impersonation (showing up at the polls pretending to be someone else): 31 credible cases out of more than 1 billion ballots cast from 2000–2014—essentially near-zero.[2]

•Double voting: A peer‑reviewed analysis of the 2012 election estimated an upper bound around 0.02% before accounting for record‑keeping errors; the true rate is likely lower.[3]

•2020 election reviews: The U.S. Justice Department under Attorney General William Barr said it found no evidence of fraud on a scale that could change results, and federal/state election‑security officials called the 2020 vote the “most secure in American history.” An Associated Press audit of six disputed battleground states identified fewer than 475 potential fraud cases out of over 25 million ballots—far too few to alter outcomes.[4]

Where it has mattered

•Local/close races can be vulnerable, especially via absentee‑ballot schemes or ballot handling violations. Examples include:

•North Carolina’s 9th Congressional District (2018): the state ordered a new election after finding a coordinated absentee‑ballot operation.[5]

•Bridgeport, Connecticut (2023): a judge ordered a new mayoral primary after videos showed improper handling of absentee ballots.[6]

Safeguards that limit fraud

•Paper ballots, post‑election audits (including risk‑limiting audits), and checks such as signature/ID verification and chain‑of‑custody procedures are designed to detect and deter problems; these practices are now common across states.[7]

•Election offices also use data analysis to flag anomalies in registration and voting records.[1]

Bottom line: Voter fraud exists, but at very low rates. It rarely changes high‑profile races, though it can affect close local contests. If you want, I can break this down by fraud type (mail ballots, double voting, noncitizen voting, etc.) or by your state.

Citations (7)

1caltech.eduAcademic
Voter-Registration Fraud: How Election Officials Find and Prevent It - Caltech Science Exchange
Backs: “Election-science research finds intentional voter fraud (e.g., casting an illegal ballot on purpose) is very uncommon in modern U.S. elections.”
2washingtonpost.comNews and mediaquality 0.82
A comprehensive investigation of voter impersonation finds 31 credible incidents out of one billion ballots cast - The Washington Post
Backs: “31 credible cases out of more than 1 billion ballots cast from 2000–2014—essentially near-zero.”
3doi.orgAcademic
One Person, One Vote: Estimating the Prevalence of Double Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections by Sharad Goel, Marc Meredith, Michael Morse, David M. Rothschild, Houshmand Shirani-Mehr :: SSRN
Backs: “A peer‑reviewed analysis of the 2012 election estimated an upper bound around 0.02% before accounting for record‑keeping errors; the true rate is likely lower.”
4ap.orgNews and mediaquality 0.69
In exclusive AP interview, AG Barr says no evidence of widespread election fraud, undermining Trump | The Associated Press
Backs: “Justice Department under Attorney General William Barr said it found no evidence of fraud on a scale that could change results, and federal/state election‑security officials called the 2020 vote the “most secure in American history.” An Associated Press audit of six disputed battleground states identified fewer than…”
5ncsbe.govGovernment
I. INTRODUCTION
Backs: “North Carolina’s 9th Congressional District (2018): the state ordered a new election after finding a coordinated absentee‑ballot operation.”
6ctpost.comNews and mediaquality 0.80
Judge orders new primary for Bridgeport mayor
Backs: “Bridgeport, Connecticut (2023): a judge ordered a new mayoral primary after videos showed improper handling of absentee ballots.”
7ncsl.orgNonprofits and think tanks
Post-Election Audits
Backs: “Paper ballots, post‑election audits (including risk‑limiting audits), and checks such as signature/ID verification and chain‑of‑custody procedures are designed to detect and deter problems; these practices are now common across states.”