Are prices lower in stores compared to a year ago?
Prices - are they actually down since last year? I'll check the latest inflation data to compare.
No - store prices on average are higher than a year ago, though the rate of increase has slowed sharply from the 2022 peak.
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 3.0 percent for the 12 months ending September 2025, after rising 2.9 percent over the 12 months ending August.
That September reading was the delayed official release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics - the first major data since the government shutdown started Oct. 1. Headline inflation rose at the fastest pace since January and up 2.9% from August.
So in nominal terms, what you pay at the register is about 3% higher than September 2024, not lower.
> Meanwhile, overall food costs increased 3.1% annually, with restaurant prices climbing 3.7% over the past 12 months and 0.1% from August, and grocery prices (food at home) rising 2.7% from last year and 0.3% month over month
The food index increased 0.2 percent over the month as the food at home index rose 0.3 percent
Other breakdowns for September:
Grocery prices have increased 3.4% on average since January 2025 [...] through August 2026, according to seasonally adjusted figures from the federal Consumer Price Index
Five of the six overarching categories of grocery products tracked by the Consumer Price Index are up substantially since January 2025 [...] The sixth category, dairy and related products, is basically flat
> They are indeed down big since January 2025, 31.1%, after spiking at the end of Biden's term because of an avian flu outbreak
That refers to eggs, which are an outlier. No other grocery product has fallen even a third as much.
Wells Fargo analysis for a specific basket found that for a typical Thanksgiving dinner in 2025, consumers can expect groceries to be around 2% to 3% less than the previous year - but that is a seasonal, basket-specific decline, not the overall store average.
In short: inflation has decelerated - you are not seeing the 9% annual increases of 2022 - but the price level in stores remains about 2.5-3% higher than a year ago across food at home, and about 3% higher across all consumer items. Deflation (broad price declines) has not occurred.
Citations (3)
- Consumer prices up 3.0 percent from September 2024 to September 2025
Backs: “No - store prices on average are higher than a year ago, though the rate of increase has slowed sharply from the 2022 peak. Overall prices: The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 3.0 percent for the 12 months ending September 2025, after rising 2.9 percent over the 12 months ending August.”
- CPI Report Today: Inflation Climbs to 3%—But Fed Is Still Expected To Cut Rate
Backs: “That September reading was the delayed official release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics - the first major data since the government shutdown started Oct.”
- Fact check: Trump lies again that grocery prices ‘have come way down’ this term
Backs: “Meat, poultry, fish, and eggs index increased 5.2% from a year ago, with the price of beef steaks soaring 16.6% on an annual basis. It is not a uniform increase - a few items are cheaper: Grocery prices have increased 3.4% on average since January 2025 [...] through August 2026, according to seasonally adjusted…”