Is political polarization worse than it's been in the past?
[1][2][2][1][3][4]Yes, by most standard measures, political polarization in the United States is worse than it has been in recent decades (roughly since the mid-to-late 20th century), though it is not unprecedented in the full sweep of American history and has some important nuances.[1]
Polarization has multiple dimensions: issue (disagreement on policy), ideological (consistency of views and distance between groups), partisan sorting (alignment of ideology with party ID), affective (emotional dislike of the other side), and elite (among politicians and institutions). Data consistently show increases across these since the 1970s–1990s, with acceleration in some cases after ~2008.
Congressional/Elite Polarization
Democrats and Republicans in Congress are farther apart ideologically than at any point in the past 50 years, according to Pew Research Center analyses of DW-NOMINATE scores (which place lawmakers on a liberal-conservative spectrum based on roll-call votes).[2]
This makes bipartisan compromise rarer and contributes to legislative gridlock.
Public Issue and Ideological Polarization
A 2026 University of Cambridge study (using American National Election Studies data from 1988–2024 and machine-learning clustering on issues like abortion, equality, traditional values, race, health insurance, etc.) found that divisions between left- and right-leaning opinion clusters increased by about 64% since 1988. Nearly all of this rise occurred after 2008 (flat through the 1990s and early 2000s), with a possible slight leveling or dip more recently—though levels remain far higher than earlier decades.[1][6]
Pew data similarly show rising ideological consistency (more people at the extremes, shrinking center) and much less overlap between partisans since the 1990s. Gaps on specific issues (climate, guns, abortion, etc.) have widened substantially.[8][9]
Affective Polarization
Americans’ feelings toward the opposing party have grown much more negative. Feeling thermometer ratings (0–100 scale) of the out-party have dropped sharply—from near-neutral (~48 in the late 1970s) to the mid-20s or lower in recent years. Highly unfavorable views have more than doubled in some periods. This “us vs. them” animosity has risen steadily for decades and is especially pronounced among the politically engaged.[3][8]
Historical Context and Nuances
In short, relative to the relatively less polarized mid-to-late 20th century, yes—polarization (especially partisan, affective, and elite) is worse and has intensified notably since the late 2000s on many metrics. It contributes to distrust, gridlock, and heightened tensions, but the U.S. has navigated deep divisions before without collapse (outside the Civil War). Trends can shift with institutions, leadership, media environments, and social conditions. Data come primarily from sources like Pew, ANES, DW-NOMINATE/Voteview, and academic studies using clustering and survey methods.
Citations (11)
- https://www.cam.ac.uk/stories/political-division-united-states
Backs: “[[1]](https://www.cam.ac.uk/stories/political-division-united-states)”
- https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2022/03/10/the-polarization-in-todays-congress-has-roots-that-go-back-decades/
Backs: “[[2]](https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2022/03/10/the-polarization-in-todays-congress-has-roots-that-go-back-decades/)”
- https://goodauthority.org/news/americans-views-of-the-opposite-party-have-declined-even-further/
Backs: “[[2]](https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2022/03/10/the-polarization-in-todays-congress-has-roots-”
- https://www.cfr.org/article/why-today-not-1850s
Backs: “[[2]](https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2022/03/10/the-polarization-in-todays-congress-has-roots-”
- https://voteview.com/articles/party_polarization
Backs: “Broader historical NOMINATE data show current levels high compared to the mid-20th century “bipartisan” era, approaching or matching peaks from the late 19th century (post-Reconstruction/Gilded Age), though lower than some Civil War-era extremes in certain metrics.”
- https://royalsocietypublishing.org/rsos/article/13/2/251428/479919/A-new-measure-of-issue-polarization-using-k-means
Backs: “Nearly all of this rise occurred after 2008 (flat through the 1990s and early 2000s), with a possible slight leveling or dip more recently—though levels remain far higher than earlier decades.”
- https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-025-02251-0
Backs: “Other research (e.g., Nature Human Behaviour) confirms Democrats and Republicans have grown more ideologically distant over ~30 years, with both moving from the center (at different rates); some demographic groups have sorted into parties without large increases in their own ideological distances.”
- https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2014/06/12/political-polarization-in-the-american-public/
Backs: “Pew data similarly show rising ideological consistency (more people at the extremes, shrinking center) and much less overlap between partisans since the 1990s.”
- https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2017/10/05/1-partisan-divides-over-political-values-widen/
Backs: “Pew data similarly show rising ideological consistency (more people at the extremes, shrinking center) and much less overlap between partisans since the 1990s. Gaps on specific issues (climate, guns, abortion, etc.) have widened substantially.”
- https://www.cnn.com/2026/07/05/politics/trump-july-4-america-250-civil-war-analysis
Backs: “Some historians argue today’s stakes or intensity do not match the Civil War era or even certain earlier periods, though partisan and regional divides today rival some of the most intense non-Civil War conflicts. Political violence and distrust are elevated but not at 1860s levels.”
- https://fsi.stanford.edu/news/polarization-united-states-reconsidered
Backs: “rightward elite rhetoric or other issues). One perspective holds that underlying “latent” value divides have been relatively stable, with rising partisan polarization reflecting better sorting of those values into parties.”