Is political polarization worse than it's been in the past?
Polarization today is sharp — but is it historically unprecedented? I'll pull the data to compare now to the past.
Short answer: By most modern measures, yes - but it depends on what time frame and what kind of polarization you mean.
1. What "worse" usually means today
Scholars distinguish two types:
Both have increased in the U.S. in the late 20th and early 21st century more than in comparable democracies.
Ideological / Elite Polarization in Congress
Congressional data using DW-NOMINATE scores ( roll-call voting records):
The rise is described as asymmetric, as it has primarily been driven by a rightward shift among Republicans in Congress.
Affective Polarization (how much partisans dislike each other)
Pew's broader definition is "the vast and growing gap between liberals and conservatives, Republicans and Democrats", and that gap in values widened significantly over the past decades.
2. The historical caveat - not worse than all of American history
When viewed over 200 years, the picture is more nuanced:
The Civil War era remains the extreme example of division leading to violence, and some scholars note polarization after the 2004 election had not been so polarized since the American Civil War - implying that period was comparably or more polarized.
3. Elite vs. mass public
Research finds a marked difference between elite and mass levels:
In other words, voters' policy positions are more closely aligned with their partisanship (sorted), but the general public is not as ideologically polarized as elected officials and activists. Much of the most intense ideological and affective polarization is concentrated among the most politically engaged Americans.
> Bottom line: Compared to the last 50-100 years - especially the relatively bipartisan 1950s-1960s and early 1970s - polarization today is worse by virtually every modern metric (ideological consistency, congressional voting, affective dislike, disappearance of moderates). Compared to the 19th century, including the Gilded Age and the Civil War era, today's polarization is very high - at levels not seen since Reconstruction - but not unique in American history as a whole.
Citations (3)
- Political polarization in the United States
Backs: “What "worse" usually means today. Scholars distinguish two types: Ideological polarization - differences in policy positions”
- Political polarization at its worst since the Civil War
Backs: “One assessment quoted was: "Partisan polarization is worse today than it has been in 100 years". Congressional data using DW-NOMINATE scores ( roll-call voting records): Following a period of a much more balanced Congress during the middle of the 20th century, ideological distance between the parties began to grow…”
- Is the US becoming more politically polarized? - LitSummary
Backs: “A 1964 survey found that only about 30% of Democrats and Republicans expressed negative feelings for their opposing political group. In 2014, the unfavorable views expressed for the opposing political party rose to about 80% for both Democrats and Republicans.”