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Claude Sonnet 5Oct 11, 2026anthropic/claude-sonnet-5-20260630

Is political polarization worse than it's been in the past?

Short answer: Yes, by most measures — especially in the last 15-20 years

Political polarization in the U.S. (and this is the context most data focuses on) is genuinely worse now than at almost any point in the past century, though there are important nuances depending on which type of polarization you're measuring.

Congressional/elite polarization is at modern historical extremes

This is the most measurable and least disputed form. a Pew Research Center analysis finds that, on average, Democrats and Republicans are farther apart ideologically today than at any time in the past 50 years. Looking back further, following a period of a much more balanced Congress during the middle of the 20th century, ideological distance between the parties began to grow during the 1970s to the extent that Congress is now more polarized than at any time since the late 1870s Reconstruction Era.

The overlap between the parties has essentially vanished — today, 92% of Republicans are to the right of the median Democrat, and 94% of Democrats are to the left of the median Republican, whereas this was certainly not always true — in the 1960s, you had intervals where about 50 percent of the legislators in the two parties overlapped.

Affective polarization (dislike of the other side) has grown sharply and uniquely in the U.S.

Beyond policy disagreement, Americans increasingly just dislike members of the opposing party. Partisan animosity has increased substantially over the past two decades — in each party, the share with a highly negative view of the opposing party has more than doubled since 1994. By 2022, 62% of Republicans and 54% of Democrats had a very unfavorable view of the other party, a higher percentage than just five years before.

What's notable is this isn't just a global trend — the U.S. stands out. findings from recent studies point to a substantial increase over time in levels of affective polarization in the United States, unparalleled in other democracies, and affect toward other parties decreased more strongly in the United States than in any of the other democracies studied.

Timing: the sharpest rise is more recent than people often assume

Interestingly, research suggests the "culture war" didn't steadily worsen for decades — it accelerated at a specific moment. A Cambridge study found divisions within the US population on social and political issues have increased by 64% since 1988, with almost all this coming after 2008, with researchers noting polarisation almost flatlined during the nineties and noughties before starting in 2008, divisions across the board steadily rose. There's even a glimmer of a plateau: this polarisation may have begun to level off during Biden's term, although it remains far higher than previous decades.

Important caveats

A few scholars push back on the "worst ever" framing:

1.Historical comparison matters. Some researchers note that viewed within the context of data from the last two centuries, today's levels of polarization are not such an aberration — the Reconstruction era and periods around the Civil War were arguably more divided, so "worst since the 1870s" still means "not the worst ever."
2.The public may be less divided than it feels. One researcher cautions that polarisation in the US can feel much worse than it is, because political groups have moved further apart in recent years, but these divisions are still fuzzy, and Americans are not split into entirely opposing tribes when it comes to the issues.
3.It's an active, evolving research area. more than 4000 papers discussed affective polarization in 2025 alone, reflecting how contested and complex the measurement question remains.

Bottom line

If you're asking about the last 50-100 years, the answer is clearly yes — polarization (especially among elected officials and in partisan animosity among voters) is higher than at any point in that window. If you're asking about all of U.S. history, the honest answer is "worse than almost any period except the lead-up to the Civil War and Reconstruction" — which is still a sobering comparison, but means it's not literally unprecedented.

Citations (15)

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    The polarization in today’s Congress has roots that go back decades

    Source excerpt: “Indeed, a Pew Research Center analysis finds that, on average, Democrats and Republicans are farther apart ideologically today than at any ... # The ...”

  2. 2usc.eduAcademic
    Political polarization at its worst since the Civil War - USC Today

    Source excerpt: “Following a period of a much more balanced Congress during the middle of the 20th century, ideological distance between the parties began to grow duri...”

  3. 3pewresearch.orgNonprofits and think tanks
    Political Polarization in the American Public

    Source excerpt: “As a result, ideological overlap between the two parties has diminished: Today, 92% of Republicans are to the right of the median Democrat, and 94% of...”

  4. 4usc.eduAcademic
    Political polarization at its worst since the Civil War - USC Today

    Source excerpt: ““This was certainly not always true,” Lo said. “In the 1960s, for instance, you had intervals where about 50 percent of the legislators in the two par...”

  5. 5pewresearch.orgNonprofits and think tanks
    Political Polarization in the American Public

    Source excerpt: “Partisan animosity has increased substantially over the same period. In each party, the share with a highly negative view of the opposing party has mo...”

  6. 6facinghistory.orgNonprofits and think tanks
    Political Polarization in the United States

    Source excerpt: “Sixty-two percent of Republicans and 54% of Democrats had a very unfavorable view of the other party in 2022, which is a higher percentage than it was...”

  7. 7oup.comAcademic
    In-Party Love, Out-Party Hate, and Affective Polarization in Twelve Established Democracies

    Source excerpt: “Overall, the findings from these studies point to a substantial increase over time in levels of affective polarization in the United States, unparalle...”

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    In-Party Love, Out-Party Hate, and Affective Polarization in Twelve Established Democracies

    Source excerpt: “According to a longitudinal analysis of twelve OECD democracies by Boxell, Gentzkow, and Shapiro (2024), affect toward other parties decreased more st...”

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    Political division in the US surged from 2008 onwards

    Source excerpt: “Divisions within the US population on social and political issues have increased by 64% since 1988, with almost all this coming after 2008, according ...”

  10. 10cam.ac.ukAcademic
    Political division in the US surged from 2008 onwards

    Source excerpt: “The University of Cambridge’s Political Psychology Lab analysed opinions on a wide range of issues – from abortion and equality to traditional values ...”

  11. 11cam.ac.ukAcademic
    Political division in the US surged from 2008 onwards

    Source excerpt: “However, starting in 2008 – the year of the financial crisis, Obama taking office, and the launch of Apple’s App Store and iPhone 3G – divisions acros...”

  12. 12cam.ac.ukAcademic
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    Source excerpt: “The study, which goes up to 2024, shows that this polarisation may have begun to level off during Biden’s term, although it remains far higher than pr...”

  13. 13usc.eduAcademic
    Political polarization at its worst since the Civil War - USC Today

    Source excerpt: ““In the 1960s, for instance, you had intervals where about 50 percent of the legislators in the two parties overlapped.” Some political scientists ...”

  14. 14cam.ac.ukAcademic
    Political division in the US surged from 2008 onwards

    Source excerpt: “However, De-Wit argues that polarisation in the US can feel much worse than it is. “Political groups have moved further apart in recent years, but the...”

  15. 15wpmucdn.comNot yet classified
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    Source excerpt: “more than 4000 papers discussing affective polarization in 2025 alone.2 Scholars have fo-. ”