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Claude Sonnet 5Oct 10, 2026anthropic/claude-sonnet-5-20260630

Is voter fraud a problem in the US?

Short answer: It's not widespread, but it does happen in isolated cases

The overwhelming body of academic and nonpartisan research finds that voter fraud in the U.S. is extremely rare, not a "problem" in the sense of affecting election outcomes, despite significant public belief to the contrary.

What the data shows

Studies across the political spectrum reach similar conclusions. Even analysis of the conservative Heritage Foundation's own fraud database—compiled specifically to document such cases—shows the numbers are tiny relative to the volume of votes cast. Heritage's "Election Fraud Database" found 1,561 instances of voter fraud that resulted in 1,325 convictions, with 20 cases brought in 2024, with charges ranging from ineligible voting to false registrations, duplicate voting and ineligible voting.

When you compare these numbers to actual votes cast, the scale becomes clear:

•Over the 25 years covering the bulk of the cases cited by Heritage, there were 36 elections held, and in Arizona that meant around 42.6 million votes cast with only 36 cases of fraud in total.
•In Pennsylvania, the Heritage Foundation analyzed 30 years of data across which 32 elections were held, and just 39 cases of voter fraud were identified—0.000039 percent of the more than 100 million ballots cast.

Specific types of fraud are even rarer:

•Most reported incidents of voter fraud are actually traceable to other sources, like clerical errors or bad data matching, and meticulously studied elections showed incident rates between 0.0003% and 0.0025%—making it more likely an American will be struck by lightning than impersonate another voter at the polls.
•Two Arizona State University studies found similarly negligible rates of impersonation fraud—just 10 cases nationwide from 2000–2012, and a follow-up study found zero successful prosecutions for impersonation fraud in five states from 2012–2016.
•Regarding noncitizen voting specifically, one study indicated noncitizens vote in U.S. elections at a rate of 0.0001%, less than the odds of being struck by lightning in a lifetime.
•Mail-in voting fraud is also negligible: researchers at Brookings examined cases of fraud reported during elections in 2016, 2018, 2020, and 2022 and estimated there were about four cases of fraud for every 10 million mail ballots cast, on average.

Academic consensus

Political scientists studying this systematically have reached a clear conclusion: research conducted during the past two decades has concluded that there is no evidence of significant election fraud in contemporary American national elections. Brookings researcher Elaine Kamarck summarized it bluntly, calling American election fraud "miniscule."

The gap between perception and reality

This is where things get interesting: there's a large disconnect between what the evidence shows and what many Americans believe. This issue has been raised so often that roughly 1 in 4 Americans believes that voter fraud is a real problem. Partisan beliefs diverge sharply—a Pew Research Center survey found that 54% of Republicans believe voter fraud is a major problem in U.S. elections, compared to 6% of Democrats. Academic research backs up this partisan split: multivariate analysis shows that partisanship correlates strongly with endorsement of types of election fraud, with Republicans consistently more likely to state that types of election fraud are common, even when controlling for a wide variety of other factors.

Bottom line

Isolated fraud cases do occur every election cycle—people voting twice, using a dead relative's ballot, etc.—but researchers across partisan lines agree it's not systemic, organized, or large enough to have altered an election outcome. As one Brookings researcher put it, "it's generally not organized, and I don't think [it's] ever affected the actual outcome, but people often pick on isolated cases and turn it into a systemic and widespread pattern."

Citations (12)

  1. 1newsweek.comNews and mediaquality 0.82
    Voter Fraud in US Elections? What the Data and Research Shows - Newsweek

    Source excerpt: “Heritage laid out cases in every state, creating the "Election Fraud Database," which found 1,561 instances of voter fraud that resulted in 1,325 conv...”

  2. 2newsweek.comNews and mediaquality 0.82
    Voter Fraud in US Elections? What the Data and Research Shows - Newsweek

    Source excerpt: “The Brookings report noted that over the 25 years covering the bulk of the cases cited by Heritage, there were 36 elections held. In the case of Ari...”

  3. 3thehill.comNews and mediaquality 0.90
    Election fraud rare in US elections, despite persistent claims otherwise

    Source excerpt: “In Pennsylvania, for example, the Heritage Foundation analyzed 30 years of data, across which 32 elections were held. Just 39 cases of voter fraud wer...”

  4. 4brennancenter.orgNonprofits and think tanks
    Resources on Voter Fraud Claims

    Source excerpt: “This report found that most reported incidents of voter fraud are actually traceable to other sources, such as clerical errors or bad data matching pr...”

  5. 5brennancenter.orgNonprofits and think tanks
    Debunking the Voter Fraud Myth

    Source excerpt: “- Two studies done at Arizona State University, one in 2012 and another in 2016, found similarly negligible rates of impersonation fraud. The project ...”

  6. 6snopes.comNot yet classified
    Alleged Voter Fraud in 2024 Election: Every Claim We've Fact-Checked

    Source excerpt: “Similarly, we found one study indicated noncitizens vote (a major Republican talking point) in U.S. elections at a rate of 0.0001%, less than the odds...”

  7. 7sciline.orgNonprofits and think tanks
    What research tells us about voter fraud - SciLine

    Source excerpt: “Researchers at the Brookings Institution, a nonpartisan think tank, examined cases of fraud reported during elections in 2016, 2018, 2020, and 2022 an...”

  8. Frontiers

    Source excerpt: “## 1 Introduction Research conducted during the past two decades has concluded that there is no evidence of significant election fraud in contemporary...”

  9. 9thehill.comNews and mediaquality 0.90
    Election fraud rare in US elections, despite persistent claims otherwise

    Source excerpt: “# Election fraud rare in US elections, despite persistent claims otherwise ## Safeguards prevent widespread fraud American election fraud, in fact, is...”

  10. 10projectvote.orgNonprofits and think tanks
    Voter Fraud: The Research and Findings - Project Vote

    Source excerpt: “This issue has been raised so often that roughly 1 in 4 Americans believes that voter fraud is a real problem. ”

  11. 11zipdo.coData and tools
    Voter Fraud: 2026 Research Stats

    Source excerpt: “04 A Pew Research Center survey found that 54% of Republicans believe voter fraud is a major problem in U.S. elections, compared to 6% of Democrats....”

  12. 12frontiersin.orgAcademic
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    Source excerpt: “Our multivariate analysis shows that partisanship correlates strongly with endorsement of types of election fraud, with Republicans consistently more ...”