Is political polarization worse than it's been in the past?
Yes and no — it depends on what kind of polarization and timeframe you're measuring.
It's worse than any point in recent decades. A long-running Pew Research series found a survey from the Pew Research Center finds that the U.S. has become more politically partisan than at any time in its modern history, with liberals becoming more ideologically consistent with other liberals, and conservatives with other conservatives, and both sides more disapproving of those they disagree with. More recent Cambridge research tracking opinions back to 1988 found that polarisation almost flatlined during the nineties and noughties, but the US left was 31.5% more socially liberal in 2024 compared to 1988, while the US right was only 2.8% more conservative — showing the surge is largely a recent (post-2008) phenomenon, though it may have begun to level off during Biden's term, although it remains far higher than previous decades.
This rise shows up in multiple dimensions:
But in a longer historical lens, no — it's not unprecedented. Historians push back on the "most divided ever" framing by pointing to the Civil War era: the scale and fury of the ensuing combat underscores the utter inappropriateness of claims that the United States is more divided now than ever before. That period included actual a member of the most celebrated family of actors in the United States expressing his unhappiness with Abraham Lincoln by shooting him in the back of the head, plus secession and full-scale war — a level of division far beyond anything seen today.
There's also measurement debate. Some researchers question whether survey-based polarization trends are even reliable, since evidence of political polarization in the U.S. largely comes from the ANES feeling thermometer, and while historic response rates have been as high as 80%, the response rate in recent years has dropped below 50% — raising concerns about who's actually answering these surveys. (That said, the same researchers ultimately concluded polarization readings still hold up.)
Bottom line
If you compare today to the mid-20th century (roughly 1950s–1990s), polarization — especially in Congress, partisan affect, and ideological sorting — is clearly worse, and by many measures at record levels for that modern era. If you compare today to the most extreme moments in U.S. history (the Civil War, for instance), it's not close to the worst the country has seen. Most of the "worse than ever" claims you hear in the news are implicitly bounded to the post-WWII or post-1980s period, not all of American history.
Citations (15)
- The U.S. Is More Politically Polarized
Source excerpt: “The survey was conducted through a combination of online and telephone interviews from January 23-March 16, 2014 and has a sampling error ... A surve...”
- The U.S. Is More Politically Polarized
Source excerpt: “Increasingly, the poll’s results show, liberals have become more ideologically consistent with other liberals, and conservatives with other conservati...”
- Political division in the US surged from 2008 onwards
Source excerpt: “The University of Cambridge’s Political Psychology Lab analysed opinions on a wide range of issues – from abortion and equality to traditional values ...”
- Political division in the US surged from 2008 onwards
Source excerpt: “Based on issues surveyed, the US left was 31.5% more socially liberal in 2024 compared to 1988, while the US right was only 2.8% more conservative. ”
- Political division in the US surged from 2008 onwards
Source excerpt: “The study, which goes up to 2024, shows that this polarisation may have begun to level off during Biden’s term, although it remains far higher than pr...”
- The evolution of polarization in the legislative branch of government
Source excerpt: “# The evolution of polarization in the legislative branch of government **DOI:** 10.1098/rsif.2019.0010 **Published:** 2019-07-17 **Authors:** Xiao...”
- Polarization, Democracy, and Political Violence in the United States: What the Research Says
Source excerpt: “The American public is affectively polarized today, and affective polarization has been increasing steadily since the 1980s and possibly earlier, depe...”
- Polarization, Democracy, and Political Violence in the United States: What the Research Says
Source excerpt: “Using this definition and measures based on expert opinion rather than self-reported feelings, their research finds that the United States is polarize...”
- Polarization, Democracy, and Political Violence in the United States: What the Research Says
Source excerpt: “However, most scholars agreed that America’s overall level of affective polarization, though rising, was only middling when compared with other countr...”
- Polarization, Democracy, and Political Violence in the United States: What the Research Says
Source excerpt: “Not only are American politicians (from school board members to representatives in Congress) receiving more threats, but also, threats against judges ...”
- Local political polarization is rising sharply ahead of the midterms, survey finds
Source excerpt: “The results of the more than 1,200-person survey, conducted over the summer by the nonprofit research firm CivicPulse, show that 41% of local official...”
- Perceptions of Polarization in Local Communities Are Rising Sharply According to New Survey by CivicPulse/Carnegie
Source excerpt: “This has never happened before this year.” ”
- Think the US is more polarized than ever? You don’t know history
Source excerpt: “The scale and fury of the ensuing combat underscores the utter inappropriateness of claims that the United States is more divided now than ever before...”
- Think the US is more polarized than ever? You don’t know history
Source excerpt: “## Caning, secession, assassination On April 14, 1865, a member of the most celebrated family of actors in the United States expressed his unhappiness...”
- Are American voters really as polarized as they seem? Rice research suggests yes
Source excerpt: “Evidence of political polarization in the U.S. largely comes from a single source, the American National Election Studies (ANES) feeling thermometer t...”