Is voter fraud a problem in the US?

Is Voter Fraud a Problem in the US?

The extensive body of academic and government research shows that voter fraud is extremely rare in the United States, despite persistent public concern about the issue.

What the research shows

Multiple independent studies spanning decades consistently find minuscule fraud rates:

•A landmark Brennan Center report reviewed elections that had been meticulously studied for voter fraud, and found incident rates between 0.0003 percent and 0.0025 percent, concluding it is more likely an American "will be struck by lightning than that he will impersonate another voter at the polls."

•A comprehensive study covering 2000–2014 found 31 credible instances of impersonation fraud from 2000 to 2014, out of more than 1 billion ballots cast, and even that small number was likely an overcount since the study's author counted not just prosecutions or convictions, but any and all credible claims.

•A News21 investigation of 2,068 alleged election-fraud cases in 50 states between 2000 and 2012 found the level of fraud was infinitesimal compared with the 146 million voters registered over the 12-year period, identifying only 10 cases of voter impersonation, the only kind of fraud that could be prevented by voter ID at the polls.

•Even using the conservative Heritage Foundation's own fraud database, Brookings researcher Elaine Kamarck found that the share of reported cases of fraud over the past 13 to 38 years across several key swing states is less than 1 percent. In Pennsylvania specifically, the Heritage Foundation analyzed 30 years of data across 32 elections, finding just 39 cases of voter fraud—0.000039 percent of the more than 100 million ballots cast. Similarly, in Arizona—one of the states most closely watched following the 2020 election—there were around 42.6 million votes cast with only 36 cases of fraud in total.

•Research on mail voting, often cited as a fraud risk, found similarly low rates: Researchers at the Brookings Institution examined cases of fraud reported during elections in 2016, 2018, 2020, and 2022 and estimated there were about four cases of fraud for every 10 million mail ballots cast, on average.

•Specific state audits confirm the pattern—in Washington state, for example, 15 cases of noncitizen voting have been prosecuted from 1982 through 2025, or about 0.000006% of ballots cast.

The 2020 election specifically

Even in the heavily scrutinized 2020 election, a count by the Associated Press of voter fraud cases in the six battleground states disputed by Donald Trump found fewer than 475 votes in all six states combined—less than two-tenths of one percent of Biden's margin of victory in those states.

What "errors" vs. "fraud" means

Many claims about fraud actually stem from administrative issues rather than intentional illegal voting. For instance, in New Jersey, about 6,600 people who identified as noncitizens were erroneously registered to vote in 2023 and 2024, through no fault of their own, due to a software error in the state's Motor Vehicle Commission automatic voter registration system, and a preliminary analysis showed that fewer than 400 of those people actually voted.

A gap between perception and reality

Despite this evidence, public concern remains high and is highly partisan: six in ten U.S. adults were concerned about voter fraud ahead of the 2024 presidential election, with this fear particularly pronounced among Republican-leaning voters at 86 percent, versus 55 percent of Independents and just 33 percent of Democratic-leaning voters.

Bottom line

The overwhelming scientific and legal consensus—from academic researchers, government audits, and even conservative-leaning databases like Heritage Foundation's—is that while isolated instances of fraud do occur, they happen at rates far too low to affect election outcomes, even in closely contested races. The gap between documented fraud rates and public perception reflects a significant disconnect between evidence and belief on this topic.

Citations (16)

1brennancenter.orgNonprofits and think tanks
Resources on Voter Fraud Claims
Source excerpt: “The report reviewed elections that had been meticulously studied for voter fraud, and found incident rates between 0.0003 percent and 0.0025 percent. ”
2brennancenter.orgNonprofits and think tanks
Resources on Voter Fraud Claims
Source excerpt: “Thus, the report found, it is more likely an American “will be struck by lightning than that he will impersonate another voter at the polls.” ”
3brennancenter.orgNonprofits and think tanks
Debunking the Voter Fraud Myth
Source excerpt: “- A comprehensive 2014 study published in *The Washington Post* found 31 credible instances of impersonation fraud from 2000 to 2014, out of more than...”
4brennancenter.orgNonprofits and think tanks
Debunking the Voter Fraud Myth
Source excerpt: “Even this tiny number is likely inflated, as the study’s author counted not just prosecutions or convictions, but any and all credible claims. ”
5nbcnews.comNews and mediaquality 0.84
Study Finds No Evidence of Widespread Voter Fraud
Source excerpt: “A study of 2,068 alleged election-fraud cases in 50 states between 2000 and 2012 found the level of fraud was infinitesimal compared with the 146 mill...”
6nbcnews.comNews and mediaquality 0.84
Study Finds No Evidence of Widespread Voter Fraud
Source excerpt: “The analysis found only 10 cases of voter impersonation, the only kind of fraud that could be prevented by voter ID at the polls. ”
7thehill.comNews and mediaquality 0.90
Election fraud rare in US elections, despite persistent claims otherwise
Source excerpt: “Through an analysis of the conservative Heritage Foundation’s election fraud database, Kamarck determined the share of reported cases of fraud over th...”
8thehill.comNews and mediaquality 0.90
Election fraud rare in US elections, despite persistent claims otherwise
Source excerpt: “In Pennsylvania, for example, the Heritage Foundation analyzed 30 years of data, across which 32 elections were held. Just 39 cases of voter fraud wer...”
9newsweek.comNews and mediaquality 0.82
Voter Fraud in US Elections? What the Data and Research Shows - Newsweek
Source excerpt: “In the case of Arizona—one of the states most closely watched following the 2020 election—that meant around 42.6 million votes cast with only 36 cases...”
10sciline.orgNonprofits and think tanks
What research tells us about voter fraud - SciLine
Source excerpt: “Researchers at the Brookings Institution, a nonpartisan think tank, examined cases of fraud reported during elections in 2016, 2018, 2020, and 2022 an...”
11sciline.orgNonprofits and think tanks
What research tells us about voter fraud - SciLine
Source excerpt: “- In Washington state, 15 cases of noncitizen voting have been prosecuted from 1982 through 2025, or about 0.000006% ballots cast, according to the se...”
12electioninnovation.orgAcademic
How common is voter fraud?
Source excerpt: “A count by the Associated Press of voter fraud cases in the six battleground states in 2020 that were disputed by Donald Trump found fewer than 475 vo...”
13sciline.orgNonprofits and think tanks
What research tells us about voter fraud - SciLine
Source excerpt: “### Errors can happen In July, for example, New Jersey Governor Mikie Sherrill announced that about 6,600 people who identified as noncitizens were er...”
14sciline.orgNonprofits and think tanks
What research tells us about voter fraud - SciLine
Source excerpt: “She added that a preliminary analysis showed that fewer than 400 of those people actually voted. ”
15statista.comData and toolsquality 0.86
2024 Presidential Election
Source excerpt: “2024 Presidential Election Despite Lack of Evidence, Americans Fear Voter Fraud Despite the fact election fraud is extremely rare, six in ten U.S. a...”
16statista.comData and toolsquality 0.86
2024 Presidential Election
Source excerpt: “When looking along party lines, this fear was particularly pronounced among Republican-leaning voters at 86 percent, versus 55 percent of Independents...”