Will stopping immigration cause labor shortages?

Stopping immigration? I'll examine what the latest data says about its impact on labor shortages.

Yes - according to most labor economists, demographic researchers, and recent government data, stopping immigration would worsen labor shortages, especially in the short and medium term, though the effect depends on scale, timeframe, and which industries you look at.

1. The US working-age population is already shrinking without immigration

Changing demographics like aging and retiring workers are a factor behind shortages, as well as border controls and immigration limits, and restrictive immigration policies are listed among the most prominent reasons shaping labor shortage.

Analyses find:

•"Without the immigration surge of 2022 to 2024, the US working-age population would have been shrinking. The prime-age labor force grew in large part because of immigration"

•The same point made in a recent law firm analysis: "without the immigration surge of 2022 to 2024, the US working-age population would have been shrinking. The prime-age labor force grew in large part because of immigration"

•The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco found that without immigration, the U.S. working-age population would have started shrinking in 2012, not 2025

•Pew Research projections: With both legal and unauthorized immigration steady, working-age population rises to 183.2 million in 2035, but without immigrants, the total U.S. workforce population — those ages 25 to 64 — would fall from 173.2 million in 2015 to 165.6 million in 2035. A summary of that work similarly notes increasing by 17.6 million new immigrants by 2035 resulting in a working age population of 183 million, without immigration, the U.S. workforce would decline from 173 million in 2015 to just 166 million in 2035

This is not unique to the US. Germany for example requires 288,000 skilled foreign workers annually until 2040 to offset its shrinking workforce due to aging demographics, and without substantial immigration, the workforce could decline by 10% by 2040

Without immigration, one analysis notes the population would begin to shrink in 2030 and even if limits end in three years, "it's still a demographic shock" for programs like Social Security and Medicare that depend on workers paying taxes

2. Immigrants are concentrated in industries with chronic shortages

In 2023, immigrants constituted 18.6% of the U.S. civilian labor force, filling critical roles in industries with unmet demands. Other estimates put foreign-born workers at about a fifth of the US labor market in 2024

"In 2024, foreign-born workers were more likely than native-born workers to be employed in service occupations, natural resources, construction and maintenance, and production, transportation, and logistics. These are sectors with chronic labor shortages and limited domestic supply pipelines"

Other reports note labor shortages are concentrated in agriculture, construction, healthcare and hospitality, producing missed harvests, delayed construction, staffing gaps and more specifically labor shortages grow in agriculture, construction, healthcare, food service, and transportation. Immigrants made up 24% of workers in residential care settings, 21% in nursing facilities, and 32% to 40% in home care in 2023.

In construction, immigrants account for a third to more than half of the workforce in key trades — roofers, drywallers, laborers, carpenters — making tightening immigration a direct cap on achievable headcount.

The Brookings analysis notes many jobs occupied by undocumented workers are physically demanding jobs that Americans do not want, such as gutting fish or work on farm fields

3. Recent data from 2025 shows what happens when immigration slows

Immigration began to slow in 2025, with figures estimated at close to zero or negative for the first time in at least half a century. Results:

•The foreign-born population fell from 53.3 million in January to 51.9 million by June — a drop of about 1.4 million — while immigrant workers declined from 31.7 million (19.6% of the workforce) to about 30.95 million

•A sudden plunge in immigration reduces the labor force available to fill jobs, which Brookings models say will dampen employment, GDP, and consumer spending and push sustainable monthly job growth well below historical norms—perhaps to 20,000–50,000 or even negative territory

The Trump administration itself acknowledged in an Oct. 2 filing to the Federal Register: "The near total cessation of the inflow of illegal aliens combined with the lack of an available legal workforce results in significant disruptions to production costs and (threatens) the stability of domestic food production and prices for U.S consumers". Similar language appears in other filings: "The near total cessation of the inflow of illegal aliens combined with the lack of an available legal workforce," results in significant disruptions

4. How large is the projected shortage if immigration stops?

Different models estimate different magnitudes, but all point to millions fewer workers:

•National Foundation for American Policy estimates the workforce will shrink by 6.8 million by 2028, including 2.8 million fewer workers due to legal immigration changes and 4 million fewer due to illegal immigration policies, and by 15.7 million by 2035

•CBO projects that reduced immigration will shrink the labor force by 15 million jobs by 2035, and separately that administration actions are expected to leave the U.S. population in 2035 about 5.3 million smaller than previously projected, which lowers potential output and long-term GDP growth

•T. Rowe Price: Immigration restrictions may reduce the U.S. labor force by 2.1 million people, which could cause upward wage pressure and push inflation higher

•Economists warn that fewer immigrants could take a hit to the economy, prompting labor shortages and slowing economic growth. Without immigrants, "there will be less economic growth. Less opportunity, also, for local companies and American workers"

Long term: "Every year of reduced immigration means a smaller labor force, which means slower economic growth, which means less capital formation and investment, which means even slower future growth"

5. Would native-born workers or automation fill the gap?

Arguments against the shortage claim are that stopping immigration would raise wages and employment for native workers, or that automation and capital mobility would substitute for labor.

So far the data has not supported a native-worker replacement effect:

•"The US-born labor force participation rate has dropped... So if we've had a big withdrawal of immigrants from the labor force, we don't see any sign of the US-born workers getting more employment because of that"

•A September 2016 report by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine found that immigration does not, in the long run, negatively impact the overall wages or employment of native-born workers

•Relatedly, "the impact of immigrant labor on the wages of native-born workers is low… However, undocumented workers often work the unpleasant, back-breaking jobs that native-born workers are not willing to do"

Automation is discussed as a hedge — for example Amazon's acquisition of robotics firms for warehouse automation highlights the broader trend toward tech-enabled labor substitution — and some economists argue that the availability of cheaper immigrant labor can delay automation. However, automation takes years and large capital investment, and is not yet able to replace many hands-on roles in farm work, elder care, and construction.

A common middle-ground argument is that a labor shortage is an argument for reconsidering immigration and guest-worker policy, not for maintaining an unofficial underground labor system.

In short: Completely stopping immigration would not cause an immediate collapse in every sector, but virtually all recent projections agree it would tighten labor supply, deepen existing shortages in agriculture, construction, hospitality and health care, reduce monthly job growth, and lower long-term GDP growth — with the effect being largest where native labor supply is already scarce and the workforce is aging.

Citations (2)

1mcknightsseniorliving.comNews and media
Job market faces ‘macroeconomic consequences’ if immigration slows: report
Backs: “The same point made in a recent law firm analysis: "without the immigration surge of 2022 to 2024, the US working-age population would have been shrinking.”
2fastcompany.comNews and mediaquality 0.80
Immigrants will play primary role in future growth of working-age population
Backs: “workforce population — those ages 25 to 64 — would fall from 173.2 million in 2015 to 165.6 million in 2035. A summary of that work similarly notes increasing by 17.6 million new immigrants by 2035 resulting in a working age population of 183 million, without immigration, the U.S.”