Is political polarization worse than it's been in the past?

Polarization is a debated trend — I'll pull recent data to compare today's divide with past eras.

In short: Compared to the last 50-70 years — yes, clearly worse. Compared to the full sweep of American history — no, not worse than the mid-19th century around the Civil War.

The answer depends on time frame and what kind of polarization is measured:

1. Compared to the modern era (1930s - 1970s), polarization is at a historic high

Political scientists distinguish between ideological polarization (distance on policy) and affective polarization (dislike/distrust of the other side). Both have increased sharply in recent decades.

Ideological distance:

> perception that polarization has increased is correct: Democrats and Republicans are farther apart ideologically today than at any time in the past 50 years.

> In the 117th U.S. Congress from 2021 to 2023, there were about two dozen moderate Democrats and Republicans.
> For comparison, there were more than 160 moderates five decades earlier during the 92nd U.S. Congress from 1971-1972.

> “As Democrats have grown more liberal over time and Republicans much more conservative, the ‘middle’ – where moderate-to-liberal Republicans could sometimes find common ground with moderate-to-conservative Democrats on contentious issues – has vanished,”

Pew Research Center tracking values questions shows the same trend:

> When Pew started the survey in 1987 the average difference was 10 percentage points; in 2012, it was 18 percentage points.

> Americans' values and "basic beliefs are more polarized along partisan lines than at any point in the past 25 years."

The gap has grown only along partisan lines, not other demographics:

> these differences have not grown in recent years, and for the most part pale in comparison to the overwhelming partisan divide we see today."

Researchers describe this as a steady trend:

> polarization has been steadily getting worse since the early 1970s," he said. "Today, we've hit the ceiling on polarization.

And:

> Political division in the US surged from 2008 onward

Affective polarization — how much partisans dislike each other — has also soared:

> In 1994 , only 17% of Republicans and 16% of Democrats reported very unfavorable views of the opposing party. By 2016 , those numbers had risen to 58% of Republicans and 55% of Democrats .

Another measure:

> Political polarization — which he defines as the percentage of voters who view their counterparts in the opposing party as “very unfavorable” — has soared from about 20 percent in 2000 to 60 percent in 2020, according to the Pew Research Center.

Comparative studies find this increase is distinctive to the U.S.:

> Overall, the findings from these studies point to a substantial increase over time in levels of affective polarization in the United States, unparalleled in other democracies.

> According to our baseline estimates, the United States experienced the largest increase in polarization over this period.

> affective polarization has intensified dramatically in the United States over the last 25 years or so.

Elite / Congressional polarization:

Political scientists use DW-NOMINATE, which tracks every roll-call vote in Congress since 1789:

> The metric called DW-NOMINATE tracks every roll-call vote in Congress since 1789. It show the current Congress is more polarized than any point since the Reconstruction era following the Civil War.

> The results from DW-NOMINATE indicate that the level of polarization in Congress is now the highest since the end of the Civil War and shows no sign that it will abate.

In concrete terms:

> a stark widening of the partisan gap, with the average difference between Democratic and Republican members increasing from about 0.8 units in the 1970s to over 1.6 units by the 2020s.

2. Compared to the 19th century, polarization today is not unprecedented

Historians emphasize that current divisions are less severe than existential conflicts like slavery.

> “The most divisive time in our history was in the years leading up to the Civil War,” he says. “In the mid-19th Century, differences were so profound representatives carried weapons into Congress.”

> for all the hype about the ruptures and partisan rancor in contemporary American society, the strife pales in comparison with much of the nation’s past.

> Some political scientists have pointed out that — viewed within the context of data from the last two centuries — today’s levels of polarization are not such an alarming anomaly compared to those occurring during the time of slavery

> It has become commonplace to say that the United States in 2020 is more divided politically and culturally than at any other point in our national past. University of Virginia Civil War historian, Gary W. Gallagher, says that current divisions pale in comparison to those of the mid-19th century.

One researcher argues the 1960s-1970s also saw comparable or greater political violence — 4,330 bombings between January 1969 and April 1970 alone — even if today's affective divisions feel worse:

> Polarization — and political violence — are far from unprecedented in America. Between January 1969 and April 1970, the United States experienced 4,330 bombings

Some nuance: Not every American is deeply polarized on issues themselves. One view notes divisions are real but fuzzy:

> Political groups have moved further apart in recent years, but these divisions are still fuzzy, and Americans are not split into entirely opposing tribes when it comes to the issues."

Bottom line