Is voter fraud a problem in the US?

Short answer: Voter fraud exists but is extremely rare, while perception of fraud is widespread.

What the data shows

Multiple independent studies—spanning academic research, government reviews, and even conservative-leaning sources—consistently find that actual voter fraud occurs at extraordinarily low rates:

•Brennan Center's landmark study reviewed elections that had been meticulously studied for voter fraud and found incident rates between 0.0003 percent and 0.0025 percent. The report concluded it's more likely an American "will be struck by lightning than that he will impersonate another voter at the polls."

•A 2012 News21 investigation examining absentee ballot fraud since 2000 found just 491 alleged cases of absentee ballot fraud since 2000, a period in which hundreds of millions of votes were cast.

•Even the Heritage Foundation's database—often cited by those arguing fraud is a serious problem—shows very low numbers. In Pennsylvania, Heritage Foundation analyzed 30 years of data across which 32 elections were held, and just 39 cases of voter fraud were identified—0.000039 percent of the more than 100 million ballots cast.

•A Brookings Institution analysis of the same Heritage database found that the share of reported cases of fraud over the past 13 to 38 years across several key swing states is less than 1 percent.

•A nationwide tally using Heritage data found 558 documented voter fraud court cases nationwide from 2016–2025, while Americans cast 686 million ballots during the same period, resulting in a rate of approximately 0.81 confirmed voter fraud cases per million ballots cast.

•Mail-in voting specifically has been studied extensively, with research finding "no evidence that voting by mail increases the risk of voter fraud overall."

•A broader academic review states plainly: research conducted during the past two decades has concluded that there is no evidence of significant election fraud in contemporary American national elections.

The gap between perception and reality

While actual fraud is rare, belief that it's a major problem is common—and sharply partisan. One survey found a Pew Research Center survey found that 54% of Republicans believe voter fraud is a major problem in U.S. elections, compared to 6% of Democrats. A 2024 academic study similarly found that partisanship correlates strongly with endorsement of types of election fraud, with Republicans consistently more likely to state that types of election fraud are common, even when controlling for a wide variety of other factors, and that conspiratorial thinking is strongly correlated with belief in the occurrence of types of election fraud, even when controlling for partisanship.

Bottom line

Voter fraud is not a widespread or systemic problem in the US—it occurs in isolated, documented instances (ineligible voting, duplicate registrations, occasional non-citizen votes) but at rates too small to meaningfully affect election outcomes. The much larger and more consequential issue is the persistent belief that fraud is rampant, which research shows is driven more by partisanship and conspiratorial thinking than by actual evidence, and which has itself become a significant factor in US politics (e.g., fueling restrictive voting laws and distrust in elections).

Citations (11)

1brennancenter.orgNonprofits and think tanks
Debunking the Voter Fraud Myth
Source excerpt: “The report reviewed elections that had been meticulously studied for voter fraud, and found incident rates between 0.0003 percent and 0.0025 percent. ...”
2brennancenter.orgNonprofits and think tanks
Debunking the Voter Fraud Myth
Source excerpt: “Given this tiny incident rate for voter impersonation fraud, it is more likely, the report noted, that an American “will be struck by lightning than t...”
3time.comNews and mediaquality 0.83
The Facts About Mail-In Voting Fraud
Source excerpt: “An investigation conducted in 2012 by the News21 reporting project, for instance, found just 491 alleged cases of absentee ballot fraud since 2000—a p...”
4thehill.comNews and mediaquality 0.90
Election fraud rare in US elections, despite persistent claims otherwise
Source excerpt: “In Pennsylvania, for example, the Heritage Foundation analyzed 30 years of data, across which 32 elections were held. Just 39 cases of voter fraud wer...”
5thehill.comNews and mediaquality 0.90
Election fraud rare in US elections, despite persistent claims otherwise
Source excerpt: “Through an analysis of the conservative Heritage Foundation’s election fraud database, Kamarck determined the share of reported cases of fraud over th...”
6substack.comBlogs and newsletters
558 U.S. Voter Fraud Cases by State - 686 Million Ballots (2016-2025)
Source excerpt: “You’ll want to check out the table below, it shows: The number of ballots cast by state ... # 558 U.S. Voter Fraud Cases - 686 million ballots (2016-...”
7time.comNews and mediaquality 0.83
The Facts About Mail-In Voting Fraud
Source excerpt: “Comparing the number of voter fraud cases in states where a large portion of voters receive ballots by mail to that in other states, the study found “...”
8arxiv.orgAcademic
American Views About Election Fraud in 2024
Source excerpt: “### 1 Introduction Research conducted during the past two decades has concluded that there is no evidence of significant election fraud in contempora...”
9zipdo.coData and tools
Voter Fraud: 2026 Research Stats
Source excerpt: “04 A Pew Research Center survey found that 54% of Republicans believe voter fraud is a major problem in U.S. elections, compared to 6% of Democrats. ”
10frontiersin.orgAcademic
Frontiers
Source excerpt: “Our multivariate analysis shows that partisanship correlates strongly with endorsement of types of election fraud, with Republicans consistently more ...”
11frontiersin.orgAcademic
Frontiers
Source excerpt: “We also find that conspiratorial thinking is strongly correlated with belief in the occurrence of types of election fraud, even when we control for pa...”