Is voter fraud a significant issue? I'll review the latest evidence on how often it occurs and what research shows.
In the US voter fraud exists, but research consistently finds it is very rare and not a systemic problem for national elections.
What the research shows
•Electoral fraud is very rare in the United States
•Research has consistently found that voter fraud in the United States is very rare
•The weight of rigorous academic studies, major news investigations, and official reviews converge: voter fraud exists but is vanishingly rare in absolute and relative terms — orders of magnitude below levels that would flip national elections
The measured rate depends on methodology, but all major estimates put it at tiny fractions of a percent:
•A Massachusetts Institute of Technology study of mail ballots over two decades called mail-in fraud “exceedingly rare” and reported rates on the order of 0.00006 percent of votes nationally
•A MIT study found the level of mail-in ballot fraud occurs only in "0.00006 percent" of individual votes nationally
•In Texas, for example, Heritage found 103 cases of confirmed voter fraud between 2005 and 2022, in a period where 107 million ballots were cast, or 0.000096% of all ballots cast
•A Washington Post analysis of data from three vote-by-mail states found that out of about 14.6 million mail votes cast in 2016 and 2018 officials had flagged just 372 possible cases of double voting or voting on behalf of deceased people
•A Brennan Center for Justice study of 2016 data from 42 jurisdictions found an estimated 30 incidents of suspected noncitizen voting out of 23.5 million votes cast (or .0001% of votes)
How many proven cases?
There is no single comprehensive national database. The most-cited public compilation is the Heritage Foundation's Election Fraud Database:
•As of November 2023, there were 1,465 proven cases of voter fraud listed in 44 years, an average of 33 cases per year
•The database lists roughly 1,561 “proven instances” yielding about 1,325 convictions across its time window
•Heritage has stated that the database is only a "sampling" and not comprehensive
Other tallies show similar scale: a News21 journalism project published a database of 2,068 alleged voter fraud cases reported between 2000 and 2012, representing about 0.000003 cases for every vote cast.
Brennan Center analysts analyzing the Heritage compilation concluded that it contains very few examples of the forms of fraud most cited in policy debates — only about ten cases of in-person voter-impersonation fraud and roughly 41 cases of noncitizen voting across the period covered
•The same finding is described as just 10 cases of in-person voter impersonation and 41 cases of non-citizens voting.
Types of fraud
Types of fraud include voter impersonation or in-person voter fraud, mail-in or absentee ballot fraud, illegal voting by noncitizens, and double voting.
1.Voter impersonation: Voter impersonation, or in-person voter fraud, occurs when someone votes in-person under the identity of someone else. It is extremely rare. If caught, perpetrators can face up to 5 years in prison and a fine of up to $10,000 for citizens.
2.Mail-in / absentee ballot fraud: Mail-in voter fraud occurs more often than in-person voter fraud. Experts say fraud occurs more often with mailed-in votes than with in-person voting, but while quite rare, experts say it still amounts to only a tiny fraction of mailed ballots.
3.Noncitizen voting: Illegal voting by noncitizens occurs when noncitizens vote in elections they are not eligible to. It is extremely rare.
4.Double voting: Also considered extremely rare.
Does it change election outcomes?
•For federal elections, voter fraud is exceedingly uncommon—measured in fractions of a percent and almost never large enough to alter presidential or congressional outcomes—though isolated cases can and do occur and can matter more in close local contests
•The empirical record across litigation, journalism, scholarly work, and compiled case lists is consistent: proven voter fraud exists but is rare and has not been shown to have changed modern federal election outcomes; the most plausible risk for an altered result is narrow local contests where a very small number of illegal votes can matter
•Fraud is more likely to occur in and affect the outcome of local elections, where the potential impact of a small number of votes can be greater
•Between 1978 and 2018, at least fourteen elections were invalidated or overturned by courts due to absentee ballot fraud, twelve of which were at the local level
Federal election security agencies have reached similar conclusions for recent presidential elections:
•The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) issued a statement calling the 2020 election "the most secure in American history" and noting there is no evidence that any voting system deleted or lost votes, changed votes, or was in any way compromised
•CISA has consistently stated that it found no evidence of foreign interference that altered the outcomes of the 2020 or 2024 presidential elections. Election experts and multiple investigations have also concluded that documented cases of non-citizen voting and mail-in ballot fraud are rare and insufficient to affect election results
Why the debate continues
Supporters of stricter election rules argue that even rare fraud justifies prevention, that proven cases are only a "sampling" and that absence of detected fraud does not prove fraud did not occur, and that fraud could matter in very close races.
Critics of that view, including the Brennan Center and many academic researchers, argue that Heritage-type counts mix decades of cases, include administrative errors, and still show extremely low rates, and that restrictive policies risk disenfranchising eligible voters more than they prevent fraud.
Major safeguards cited as keeping fraud low include voter registration databases, signature verification, ballot tracking, postelection audits, and criminal penalties including deportation and imprisonment for noncitizens who vote illegally.
Bottom line: By every major academic, journalistic, and government review, in-person voter fraud and large-scale fraud is exceedingly rare in the United States today — not at a level that has been shown to flip statewide or national results — though isolated cases do occur and can occasionally affect very close local races.