Is political polarization worse than it's been in the past?

Polarization today feels intense — I'll weigh current trends against the historical record to answer your question.

Short answer: Yes, compared to the last half-century - but not necessarily compared to the most divisive periods in U.S. history, like the 1850s-Civil War and Gilded Age.

1. Worse than recent history - by most modern measures, yes

Scholars distinguish between ideological polarization (differences in policy positions) and affective polarization (dislike and distrust of out-groups).

On both dimensions, the U.S. has experienced a greater surge since the late 20th century than comparable democracies.

> As of 2025, polarization was higher than any point in current history

•Among elites/Congress: Polarization has increased since the 1970s, with rapid increases during the 2000s onwards. Following a period of much more balanced Congress in the middle of the 20th century, Congress is now more polarized than at any time since the late 1870s Reconstruction Era.

Traditional NOMINATE scores - which measure liberal-conservative positions from roll call votes and account for about 85% of variance in voting - show today the overlap interval is zero. "This was certainly not always true...In the 1960s, for instance, you had intervals where about 50 percent of the legislators in the two parties overlapped".

•Among the public:

•Pew Research Center found members of both parties who have unfavorable opinions of the opposing party doubled between 1994 and 2014, while those who have very unfavorable opinions are at record highs as of 2022.

•In 1994, only 17% of Republicans and 16% of Democrats reported very unfavorable views of the opposing party. By 2016, those numbers had risen to 58% of Republicans and 55% of Democrats.

•From 1994 to 2014, the share expressing consistently liberal or consistently conservative opinions doubled from 10% to 21%. In 1994 the average Republican was more conservative than 70% of Democrats, compared to more conservative than 94% of Democrats in 2014.

•Across 48 different questions, the average difference between Republican and Democratic opinions now stands at 18 percentage points ... nearly twice the size of the gap in surveys conducted from 1987-2002.

•University of Cambridge Political Psychology Lab analysis of >35,000 American National Election Studies responses between 1988 and 2024 found divisions were broadly stable through the 1990s and early 2000s, before rising steadily from 2008 onward, with issue polarization increasing 64%.

•The U.S. left was 31.5% more socially liberal in 2024 compared to 1988.

Researchers note previous research suggesting that political polarization in the United States is more pronounced now than in the past -- at least among members of the nation's major political parties.

•Comparatively: In the U.S., affective polarization has increased more dramatically since the late 1970s than in the eight other countries examined -- the U.K., Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Germany, Switzerland, Norway and Sweden.

2. Not worse than the most extreme historical periods

Viewed on a 150-200 year scale, current levels are high but not unprecedented:

•Some political scientists have pointed out that -- viewed within the context of data from the last two centuries -- today's levels of polarization are not such an alarming anomaly compared to those occurring during the time of slavery.

•The Gilded Age of the late 19th century (c. 1870-1900) is considered to be one of the most politically polarized periods in American history.

•NOMINATE data shows that partisan elites in the U.S. are as polarized today as they were around the time of the Civil War, suggesting a huge gulf in the middle.

•Historians note that current divisions pale in comparison to mid-19th century, when "In the mid-19th Century, differences were so profound representatives carried weapons into Congress". The country became progressively more polarized over slavery starting in the early 1830s, culminating in Civil War.

In other words, the 1950s and 1960s were marked by high levels of political bipartisanship, the results of a post-World War II "consensus". Compared to that low-polarization baseline, today's politics looks extreme. Compared to the 1850s-1890s baseline, it looks like a return to historic highs.

3. Important nuance: elite vs. mass public

A long-running debate asks whether mass polarization is real or just a reflection of sorting:

•According to Morris Fiorina, Americans are moderate, tolerant, and ambivalent in their political attitudes. The culture war is almost entirely an elite phenomenon, driven by a small group of activists. It is the elites and activists who are polarized, not the public.

•Other scholars argue the public has sorted -- self-described conservatives made up 68% of Republicans in 2012 than 59% in 2000, while liberals rose from 27% to 39% of Democrats -- but remain less ideologically polarized than they think, even as they "do not like members of the other party" - affective polarization.

•Some research finds polarization is primarily a phenomenon among Americans who are deeply involved in politics.

So the experience of polarization depends on who and what you measure: elite voting records and feelings toward the other party show record modern highs; self-reported policy positions among less-engaged citizens show more overlap and sorting than a deep ideological chasm.

Citations (3)

1wikipedia.orgEncyclopedias and referencequality 0.83
Political polarization in the United States
Backs: “history, like the 1850s-Civil War and Gilded Age. 1. Worse than recent history - by most modern measures, yes. Scholars distinguish between ideological polarization (differences in policy positions) and affective polarization (dislike and distrust of out-groups).”
2usc.eduAcademic
Political polarization at its worst since the Civil War
Backs: “Among elites/Congress: Polarization has increased since the 1970s, with rapid increases during the 2000s onwards.”
3pewresearch.orgNonprofits and think tanks
Partisan polarization, in Congress and among public, is greater than ever
Backs: “Across 48 different questions, the average difference between Republican and Democratic opinions now stands at 18 percentage points ...”