Voter fraud claims vary widely — I'll check the latest data on how common it actually is.
In the United States voter fraud is documented, but research across methodologies concludes it is not a widespread problem at the scale of state or national elections.
What the evidence shows
> Empirical evidence across decades and multiple methodologies leads to one clear, repeatable conclusion: proven voter fraud is extremely rare relative to the number of votes cast — measured in orders of magnitude of 0.0000X percent — and no rigorous body of research has shown fraud at the scale necessary to flip major U.S. elections
•Microscopic rates: Comprehensive reviews put the rate in federal contests at essentially zero for practical purposes.
•The Brennan Center's seminal report The Truth About Voter Fraud reviewed elections meticulously studied for fraud and found incident rates between 0.0003 percent and 0.0025 percent, noting it is more likely an American "will be struck by lightning than that he will impersonate another voter at the polls."
Other summaries rank the risk of ballot fraud at 0.00004% to 0.0009%, based on studies of past elections.
•Scholarly consensus: "Research has been consistent over time that voter fraud is infinitesimally rare and almost never occurs on a scale that would affect an election outcome," said Alice Clapman, senior counsel for voting rights at the Brennan Center.
•Scholars and nonpartisan researchers who have compiled proven cases across decades conclude that instances are extremely uncommon relative to hundreds of millions of ballots cast.
•A 2014 study published in The Washington Post found 31 credible instances of impersonation fraud from 2000 to 2014, out of more than 1 billion ballots cast.
•Official and government reviews:
•A specialized United States Department of Justice unit formed to find instances of federal election fraud examined the 2002 and 2004 federal elections, and were able to prove that 0.00000013 percent of ballots cast were fraudulent, finding "no concerted effort to tilt the election."
•The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) issued a statement calling the 2020 election "the most secure in American history" and noting "there is no evidence that any voting system deleted or lost votes, changed votes, or was in any way compromised." CISA also said there was "no evidence of any malicious activity" affecting the integrity of the 2024 elections.
•Texas lawmakers purported to pass strict photo ID to protect against fraud, yet the chief law enforcement official responsible for such prosecutions knew of only one conviction and one guilty plea that involved in-person voter fraud in all Texas elections from 2002 through 2014.
•The Fifth Circuit noted "only two convictions for in-person voter impersonation fraud out of 20 million votes cast in the decade" before Texas passed its ID law.
Does fraud exist at all?
Yes, but in small numbers over long time periods:
•The Heritage Foundation's Election Fraud Database, the most-cited public compilation, catalogs roughly 1,561 instances that produced about 1,325 convictions across many decades, indicating on the order of 30–40 proven cases per year on average, and only 20 cases in 2024 according to reporting that used that dataset.
•Brookings' review of Heritage data found, for example, that in Arizona Heritage had to search 25 years across 36 elections and over 42 million ballots to find 36 cases — a rate of 0.0000845 percent.
Where fraud is more likely to occur
Research has consistently found that voter fraud in the United States is very rare, but fraud is more likely to occur in and affect the outcome of local elections, where the potential impact of a small number of votes can be greater.
> The empirical record ... is consistent: proven voter fraud exists but is rare and has not been shown to have changed modern federal election outcomes; the most plausible risk for an altered result is narrow local contests where a very small number of illegal votes can matter
Types of fraud include voter impersonation or in-person voter fraud, mail-in or absentee ballot fraud, illegal voting by noncitizens, and double voting.
When fraud does happen, experts say it more often involves absentee or mail ballots:
•Election fraud is rare, but it usually involves absentee or mail ballots, said Paul Gronke, a Reed College political scientist.
•An analysis by News21 found 28 cases of voter fraud convictions since 2000. Of those, 14 percent involved absentee ballot fraud. Voter impersonation made up only 3.6 percent of those cases.
Public perception vs. data
While just over half (52)% of the country thinks voter fraud is a problem, although only 25% think it is a major problem, the overwhelming evidence shows that the voter fraud rate is very, very, very low.
Some experts have said voter fraud can be difficult to prove or find depending on the circumstances, although experts generally consider widespread cheating easy to detect.
Bottom line
•Voter fraud exists and is prosecuted, but at rates typically measured in thousandths to millionths of a percent of votes cast.
•No rigorous body of research has shown fraud at the scale necessary to flip major U.S. elections, and federal election security agencies have found no evidence of systems-level compromise in recent presidential elections.
•The greatest documented risk is in close local contests and absentee-ballot schemes, which is why election administration focuses on safeguards like signature verification, audits, and list maintenance rather than widespread in-person impersonation.