Are prices lower in stores compared to a year ago?
Are Prices Lower in Stores Than a Year Ago?
Overall, no—most store prices are still higher than they were a year ago, though the pace of increases has slowed significantly, and a handful of specific items have actually gotten cheaper.
The Big Picture: Overall Inflation
The annual inflation rate in the United States was 3.4% for the 12 months ending August, the same as in July, according to U.S. Labor Department data released September 11, 2026. This means prices broadly are still rising, just not as sharply as during the 2022 inflation peak.
Groceries: A Mixed Bag
The all-food Consumer Price Index rose 0.1% from July to August and stood 2.7% above a year earlier. However, this headline number masks very different trends by category:
Getting cheaper:
Still more expensive:
Looking Forward
USDA recently revised its outlook slightly downward: the Economic Research Service now projects all food prices will rise 2.9% in 2026, with grocery prices expected to increase 2.4%, while restaurant prices are projected to rise 3.5%. These forecasts are actually below their respective 20-year averages of 3.0% and 2.6%, suggesting inflation is moderating toward historical norms.
Bottom Line
If you're shopping today, your overall grocery bill is likely still higher than a year ago—but by a smaller margin than in recent years. The exceptions are notable: eggs, butter, chicken, and cheese are genuinely cheaper, while beef, tomatoes, and sugar/sweets continue climbing, creating a very uneven experience depending on what's in your cart.
Citations (10)
- Current U.S. Inflation Rates: 2000-2026
Source excerpt: “The annual inflation rate in the United States was 3.4% for the 12 months ending August, the same as in July, according to U.S. Labor Department data ...”
- USDA Trims Food Inflation Outlook for 2026 and 2027 - Ag Bull Trading
Source excerpt: “** The all-food Consumer Price Index rose 0.1% from July to August and stood 2.7% above a year earlier, below the 3.4”
- Some Grocery Prices Are Finally Going Down — Here’s What’s Getting Cheaper - Better Report
Source excerpt: “The latest Consumer Price Index data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) shows that several everyday grocery staples now cost less than they did...”
- Some Grocery Prices Are Finally Going Down — Here’s What’s Getting Cheaper - Better Report
Source excerpt: “## What’s Getting Cheaper ### Reader Favorites Eggs are the biggest outlier, but they’re not the only grocery item getting cheaper. Prices have also f...”
- Grocery Prices Could Drop in 2026: Here's What's Actually Getting Cheaper (And What Isn't) - Govtschemes.org
Source excerpt: “USDA now expects **retail egg prices to fall roughly 30% for all of 2026**, after prices were already down close to 28% to 35% year-over-year by early...”
- USDA Food Price Outlook: Grocery Inflation Cut to 2.4%
Source excerpt: “- **Beef and veal:** forecast up 9.4%. ”
- Grocery Prices Could Drop in 2026: Here's What's Actually Getting Cheaper (And What Isn't) - Govtschemes.org
Source excerpt: “## Beef Is Becoming a Genuine Budget Problem USDA’s latest projection puts **beef and veal price increases somewhere between 7.5% and nearly 11% for 2...”
- Some Grocery Prices Are Finally Going Down — Here’s What’s Getting Cheaper - Better Report
Source excerpt: “According to the latest BLS data, the cost of tomatoes is up 12.8% year over year, while apples cost 11% more in July 2026 than they did in July 2025.”
- USDA Trims Food Inflation Outlook for 2026 and 2027 - Ag Bull Trading
Source excerpt: “** ***USDA release:*** ***Food Price Outlook, 2026: Summary Findings (Sept. 25, 2026)|Forecast tables and data:*** ***ERS Food Price Outlook*** ## T...”
- USDA Trims Food Inflation Outlook for 2026 and 2027 - Ag Bull Trading
Source excerpt: “The all-food and grocery forecasts are below their respective 20-year averages of 3.0% and 2.6%; dining-out inflation matches its 3.5% historical aver...”