Is political polarization worse than it's been in the past?

Your question on polarization trends is timely — I'll gather the latest research to compare today with the past.

Is political polarization worse than in the past? The answer depends on the time frame and the type of polarization measured:

Compared to the recent past (last 30-50 years): Yes, by most modern measures

Most research finds polarization has increased significantly in recent decades:

•A Pew Research Center analysis finds that, on average, Democrats and Republicans are farther apart ideologically today than at any time in the past 50 years. The same finding is summarized as perception that polarization has increased is correct.

•In a detailed poll of more than 10,000 Americans, researchers found more political polarization in the United States than at any time in the past two decades.

•Previous research suggesting that political polarization in the United States is more pronounced now than in the past -- at least among members of the nation's major political parties, with self-described conservatives making up a greater share of Republicans and self-described liberals a greater share of Democrats.

•Across 48 different questions covering values about government, foreign policy, social and economic issues, the average difference between the opinions of Republicans and Democrats now stands at 18 percentage points...nearly twice the size of the gap in surveys conducted from 1987-2002.

•Unlike in 1987, when the Pew Research Center began its series of surveys on American values, the gap between Republicans and Democrats is now greater than gender, age, race or class divides.

Two specific dimensions are often distinguished:

1. Ideological / Congressional polarization:

•Both parties have grown more ideologically cohesive. There are now only about two dozen moderate Democrats and Republicans left on Capitol Hill, versus more than 160 in 1971-72.

•That zone of ideological overlap began to shrink, and since 2002 ... there's been no overlap at all between the least liberal Democrats and the least conservative Republicans in the House.

•Researchers at the University of Cambridge tracked shifts using more than 35,000 responses from the American National Election Studies between 1988 and 2024, they estimate that issue polarization has increased 64%, with divisions broadly stable through the 1990s and early 2000s, before rising steadily from 2008 onward.

2. Affective polarization (dislike/distrust of the other side):

•The discrepancy between the in and out party thermometer scores steadily increased from around 25 degrees in 1978 to around 45 in 2020. Almost all the increase in affective polarization has occurred because of increased out-party animus.

•From 1980–1990, affective polarization increased to around 33–35 points, By 2016, affective polarization rose up to 41–43 points, the highest on record.

•More recent ANES data show that between 2016 and 2020, affective polarization jumping from 41 to 52.2 degrees.

Researchers also note the portion of people who hold extreme political opinions is increasing, and over the past twenty years, the number of Americans in the "tails" of ideological distribution has doubled from 10% to 21%.

Compared to the distant past: Not necessarily "worse than ever"

•One common misconception is "Polarization in the United States is worse than ever."

•The author argues: I can think of at least one time polarization was way worse than it is now — between 1861 and 1865, when the Civil War was going on.

•Similarly, the 1960s saw political violence, rage in the streets, cultural convulsions, and race riots described as "tinkered with something close to a civil war".

•Political scientist Morris Fiorina has argued that despite widespread perceptions of rising political polarization in the United States, the American public is no more polarized than it was before the Reagan era.

This highlights a debate in the literature:

•Elite and activist polarization (elected officials, highly engaged partisans) has clearly grown.

•Mass public polarization on issues is less clear-cut. Some scholars find the median voter has remained relatively centrist, while partisan feelings about the other side have become much more negative. Whether we're more polarized today than say 30 or 40 years ago, depends on whether we're talking about polarization in terms of issues versus polarization in terms of group identities and emotions.

In short: By measures available since the 1970s-1990s — congressional voting records, ideological consistency scales, and feeling thermometers — the U.S. is more polarized now than at any point in the last 50 years and especially since 2000-2008. It is not, however, more polarized than during periods of open national rupture like the Civil War.

Citations (4)

1pewresearch.orgNonprofits and think tanks
The polarization in today’s Congress has roots that go back decades
Backs: “Compared to the recent past (last 30-50 years): Yes, by most modern measures. Most research finds polarization has increased significantly in recent decades: A Pew Research Center analysis finds that, on average, Democrats and Republicans are farther apart ideologically today than at any time in the past 50 years.”
2pewresearch.orgNonprofits and think tanks
Partisan polarization, in Congress and among public, is greater than ever
Backs: “Previous research suggesting that political polarization in the United States is more pronounced now than in the past -- at least among members of the nation's major political parties, with self-described conservatives making up a greater share of Republicans and self-described liberals a greater share of Democrats.…”
3csic.esNot yet classified
Fear and Loathing in american politics: A review essay1 This article is an analysis of the current state of the art in affective polarization research, reviewing the main developments and debates and …
Backs: “Researchers at the University of Cambridge tracked shifts using more than 35,000 responses from the American National Election Studies between 1988 and 2024, they estimate that issue polarization has increased 64%, with divisions broadly stable through the 1990s and early 2000s, before rising steadily from 2008…”
4arc-cdn.netNot yet classified
Political polarization: How bad is it really in the U.S.? | Opinion – Deseret News
Backs: “Researchers also note the portion of people who hold extreme political opinions is increasing, and over the past twenty years, the number of Americans in the "tails" of ideological distribution has doubled from 10% to 21%. Compared to the distant past: Not necessarily "worse than ever"”