Is political polarization worse than it's been in the past?
Yes, by most standard measures, political polarization—particularly in the United States—is worse now than it has been in recent decades (post-World War II era), though it is not unprecedented in American history when compared to extreme periods like the Civil War era, and trends vary by type of polarization and country.[1]
Polarization is multi-faceted. Researchers distinguish:
Evidence of Increased Polarization in the US (Recent Decades)
Multiple studies using long-running surveys (e.g., American National Election Studies/ANES, General Social Survey) show rises since the late 20th century, accelerating in the 21st:
Public polarization has increased on many (not all) topics since the 1990s, driven more by general disagreement than pure dimensional collapse or simple demographic sorting in some measures.[7]
Historical Context: Not the Absolute Worst Ever
Today’s polarization is distinctive due to: 24/7 partisan media and social media algorithms creating echo chambers and amplifying outrage; nationalized politics over local; identity fusion (party + race/religion/urban-rural/education); close elections making stakes feel existential; and asymmetric shifts in some periods.
Broader/International Trends
Polarization has risen in many democracies since the end of the Cold War, accelerating post-2008/2010s (negative partisanship charts show rises after 1990, 2008, 2016). It appears in various systems, not just two-party ones. The US stands out among wealthy Western liberal democracies for sustained high (“pernicious”) levels. V-Dem data covers many countries; some (e.g., Myanmar) score higher currently, and levels fluctuate (some rose/fell recently). Western Europe shows party system polarization increases in the 2000s–2010s. Affective polarization trends are mixed across countries (strong rises in US/Germany; declines elsewhere like Sweden).[10]
Social media is widely seen as worsening divisions globally.[11]
Caveats and Nuances
In short, relative to the late 20th century baseline most people remember or data covers well, yes—polarization (especially affective and partisan) is worse and has spiked notably since ~2008. Absolute historical peaks were higher in destructiveness. Trends are not inevitable and have paused/reversed in places/times; depolarization is possible but rare from pernicious levels in liberal democracies without major shifts. Data continues to evolve with new surveys and elections.
Citations (12)
- https://www.cam.ac.uk/stories/political-division-united-states
Backs: “Yes, by most standard measures, political polarization—particularly in the United States—is worse now than it has been in recent decades (post-World War II era), though it is not unprecedented in American history when compared to extreme periods like the Civil War era, and trends vary by type of polarization and…”
evidence, article, points to yes. Claim: Polarization is worse than in recent decades; Cambridge study found issue polarization rose 64% since 1988, mostly after 2008, though divisions remain fuzzy.
- https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-025-02251-0
Backs: “Ideological distance between Democrats and Republicans has grown over the past ~30 years; both parties moved from the center (at different rates), with Democrats becoming more heterogeneous after 2010 in some analyses.”
evidence, article, points to yes. Claim: Ideological distance between Democrats and Republicans has grown over the past ~30 years as both parties moved from the center.
- https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2022/03/10/the-polarization-in-todays-congress-has-roots-that-go-back-decades/
Backs: “Democrats modestly leftward. Southern realignment contributed.”
evidence, article, points to yes. Claim: Congressional Democrats and Republicans are farther apart ideologically than at any point in the past 50 years.
- https://www.psypost.org/as-america-shifted-left-under-trump-emotional-hostility-widened-the-partisan-gap/
Backs: “One analysis of Trump’s first term showed Republicans driving larger increases in in-group warmth and out-group coolness.”
evidence, article, points to yes. Claim: Affective polarization has risen, with Republicans driving larger in-group warmth and out-group coolness increases during Trump's first term.
- https://carnegieendowment.org/files/McCoy_et_al_-_Polarization_final_3.pdf
Backs: “V-Dem (Varieties of Democracy) expert assessments show US political polarization (society divided into antagonistic camps affecting social relationships) rising since ~1990s/2000s, reaching “pernicious” levels (around 3+ on 0-4 scale) by ~2015 and standing out among advanced Western democracies. The US climbed above…”
statistic, official document, points to yes. Claim: V-Dem expert assessments show US polarization reaching 'pernicious' levels around 3+ on a 0-4 scale by ~2015.
- https://www.pewresearch.org/packages/political-polarization/
Backs: “Declining bipartisan common ground on issues, Americans increasingly saying parties cannot agree on basic facts, rising concerns about social media fueling division, and higher perceived political violence risk. Partisan identity has strengthened as a social identity.”
evidence, home page, points to yes. Claim: Other indicators: declining bipartisan common ground, concerns about social media, higher perceived political violence risk, stronger partisan identity.
- https://arxiv.org/html/2512.00955
Backs: “Public polarization has increased on many (not all) topics since the 1990s, driven more by general disagreement than pure dimensional collapse or simple demographic sorting in some measures.”
evidence, article, points to yes. Claim: Public polarization has increased on many, not all, topics since the 1990s.
- https://www.cnn.com/2026/07/05/politics/trump-july-4-america-250-civil-war-analysis
Backs: “Nothing since matches this intensity of division leading to violence on that scale.”
evidence, article, points to no. Claim: Civil War era and other periods like Adams/Jefferson and the 1960s were more extreme; today is not the absolute worst.
- https://www.nytimes.com/2026/08/10/style/america-is-atomizing.html
Backs: “Robert Putnam notes atomization (decline in social capital/face-to-face ties) is at historic lows now, worse than prior eras, amplified by media.”
attribution, article, points to yes. Claim: Robert Putnam notes atomization is at historic lows now, worse than prior eras, amplified by media.
- https://www.economist.com/interactive/essay/2024/10/31/when-politics-is-about-hating-the-other-side-democracy-suffers
Backs: “Affective polarization trends are mixed across countries (strong rises in US/Germany; declines elsewhere like Sweden).”
evidence, article, neutral. Claim: Polarization has risen in many democracies since the Cold War, but affective polarization trends are mixed across countries.
- https://www.pewresearch.org/chart/increasing-concerns-that-the-internet-and-social-media-create-political-divisions/
Backs: “Social media is widely seen as worsening divisions globally.”
evidence, data page, points to yes. Claim: Social media is widely seen as worsening political divisions globally.
- https://www.journalofdemocracy.org/articles/polarization-is-not-the-problem/
Backs: “One perspective frames high polarization as a response to social progress/backlash rather than equal “both sides.””
attribution, article, neutral. Claim: One perspective frames high polarization as a response to social progress and backlash rather than equal both-sides dynamics.