Will stopping immigration cause labor shortages?

Will stopping immigration trigger labor shortages? I'll pull the latest research on workforce impacts.

Yes, stopping immigration would cause - and is currently causing - labor shortages, according to most economic research and recent U.S. labor market data.

1. The U.S. labor force now depends on immigration for growth

Between 2018 and 2024, without immigration America's labor force would have shrunk by 1.3 million workers. Over the last five years, only 479,000 U.S.-born workers were added to the U.S. labor force, compared to 3.6 million foreign-born workers.

This is linked to demographics:

> “The labor market implications of this are inseparable from a longer-term demographic reality: the United States is aging, and immigrants, on average, are more likely to be of prime working age than native-born Americans”

Researchers note:

> “Without the immigration surge of 2022 to 2024, the US working-age population would have been shrinking”

And the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco found that without immigration, the U.S. working-age population would have started shrinking in 2012, not 2025.

If immigration is stopped:

In short: “immigration will soon become the primary mechanism keeping the population and the labor force growing. Without it, the U.S. will not just be facing a tighter labor market, but a shrinking one.”

2. Which sectors would face shortages first?

Shortages are most acute in sectors heavily reliant on immigrant labor:

Degree of dependence:

> immigrant workers comprising 25% of construction labor, 66% of agriculture workers, and 15–28% of healthcare staff

The Trump administration itself admits that the immigration crackdown is causing labor shortages on the farm, stating:

> "The near total cessation of the inflow of illegal aliens combined with the lack of an available legal workforce,'' the Labor Department said in an Oct. 2 filing the Federal Register, "results in significant disruptions to production costs and (threatens) the stability of domestic food production and prices for U.S consumers.''

3. Does removing immigrant workers create jobs for native-born workers?

Research on the 2025 enforcement surge finds the opposite.

Brookings analysis of ICE enforcement in 2025 found:

Losses concentrated in immigrant-intensive sectors but spread well beyond them. The deepest direct hits fell on construction and on accommodation and food services, but industries with very few immigrant workers—such as arts and entertainment—also contracted sharply.

American-born workers were also harmed. The study estimates that, out of the 668,000 jobs lost, 51,000-297,000 would have been held by American-born workers. This is consistent with two mechanisms: firms facing sudden labor shortages scale back operations, and local economies weaken when immigrant households reduce everyday spending due to fear.

4. Could native-born workers, automation, or wage increases fill the gap?

In theory, higher wages could attract more native-born workers and automation could reduce demand for labor in the long term. However, economists note:

Research on mass deportation estimates removing 8.5-10.8 million immigrant workers would shrink U.S. GDP by between 2.6–6.8%—losses comparable to, or exceeding, those of the Great Recession.

Bottom line

Stopping immigration would not just create temporary shortages in agriculture, construction, hospitality, and healthcare, but, due to an aging native-born population, would cause the overall working-age population and labor force to shrink, lowering sustainable job growth, GDP, and consumer spending. While wages may rise in some affected occupations, most studies find total employment — including for U.S.-born workers — falls rather than rises when immigrant labor is removed.