Will stopping immigration cause labor shortages?

Will halting immigration trigger labor shortages? I'll pull current research on workforce, demographics, and key industries to assess the impact.

Yes, virtually all recent economic and demographic research finds that stopping immigration - both legal and unauthorized - would cause and worsen labor shortages in the U.S., rather than freeing up jobs for native-born workers.

1. Immigration is now the primary source of labor force growth

Pew Research Center projects:

The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco found that without immigration, the U.S. working-age population would have started shrinking in 2012, not 2025.

This is also why researchers note: "Without the immigration surge of 2022 to 2024, the US working-age population would have been shrinking."

2. Models of stopping / restricting immigration show large workforce losses

The National Foundation for American Policy (NFAP) estimates:

A Brookings Institution analysis of recent enforcement found 668,000 jobs lost total, of which an estimated 51,000-297,000 would have been held by American-born workers. Losses were concentrated in immigrant-intensive sectors but spread well beyond them.

The labor force has decreased by more than a million this year amid retirements and an aggressive crackdown on illegal immigration, and hiring slowed to 29,000 jobs per month June–August 2025 — down from roughly 400,000 per month during 2021-2023.

Indeed Hiring Lab warns: "Foreign job seeker interest in U.S. jobs has fallen sharply since 2024 and is currently at a 6-year low", while "Without it, the U.S. will not just be facing a tighter labor market, but a shrinking one."

3. Shortages are concentrated in specific sectors

Analysis finds: "Tightened immigration controls are directly linked to growing labor shortages in key sectors"

The U.S. Department of Labor itself admitted in an Oct. 2 Federal Register filing: "The near total cessation of the inflow of illegal aliens combined with the lack of an available legal workforce results in significant disruptions to production costs and (threatens) the stability of domestic food production"

Other evidence:

Researchers also note reduced immigration contributes to labor shortages, driving inflationary pressures as the supply of immigrant-dependent goods and services shrinks.

4. Can native-born workers fill the gap?

The White House argues: "There is no shortage of American minds and hands to grow our labor force" and that tighter enforcement will push more U.S.-born workers into jobs.

So far data does not support that:

Rather than creating jobs, studies found enforcement reduced construction employment for American-born workers and slowed homebuilding.

Bottom line

Stopping immigration would not just cause short-term shortages in agriculture, construction, hospitality, healthcare, elder care, and food processing — it would reverse long-term labor force growth entirely, shrinking the working-age population by almost 8 million by 2035 compared to 2015 and lowering trend GDP growth. Mitigation would require much higher native birth rates, much higher participation, or rapid automation — none of which can replace the labor supply effect within 5-10 years.

If your question is about a specific country or time horizon — e.g., halting all immigration vs. halting only unauthorized immigration vs. halting only low-skill immigration — effects vary by sector, but the consensus across Pew, NFAP, CBO, Brookings, and Federal Reserve research is that a full stop would create broad and acute labor shortages.