Is voter fraud a problem in the US?

Is Voter Fraud a Problem in the US?

The overwhelming consensus from academic research, government investigations, and nonpartisan analysis is that voter fraud is extremely rare in the United States and does not occur at a scale that affects election outcomes — though the perception of fraud as a major problem is widespread, especially along partisan lines.

What the Research Shows

Multiple rigorous studies spanning different elections and methodologies converge on similar conclusions:

Overall rarity: The incidence of voter fraud has been studied numerous times, and the consensus from credible research and investigation is that the rate of illegal voting is extremely rare, with certain types of fraud like impersonating another voter being virtually nonexistent. One influential Brennan Center report reviewed elections that had been meticulously studied for voter fraud and found incident rates between 0.0003 percent and 0.0025 percent, concluding it is more likely an American "will be struck by lightning than that he will impersonate another voter at the polls."

Impersonation fraud (the type voter ID laws target): A comprehensive 2014 study found 31 credible instances of impersonation fraud from 2000 to 2014, out of more than 1 billion ballots cast — and even that tiny number is likely inflated. Separately, two Arizona State University studies found similarly negligible rates: one found only 10 cases of voter impersonation fraud nationwide from 2000-2012, and a follow-up looking specifically in states where politicians claimed fraud was pernicious found zero successful prosecutions in five states from 2012-2016.

Double voting: A 2016 working paper concluded that the upper limit on double voting in the 2012 election was 0.02%, and noted the true rate was likely much lower, since audits showed many apparent double votes could result from measurement error.

Non-citizen voting: A 2014 paper concluded that "the likely percent of non-citizen voters in recent US elections is 0."

Mail-in voting: A recent Brookings analysis found that the average total mail voting fraud percentage across the 2016, 2018, 2020, and 2022 general elections was only 0.000043%, or about four cases of mail voting fraud out of every 10 million mail votes.

State-level data (swing states): Brookings scholar Elaine Kamarck's analysis of even the conservative Heritage Foundation's own fraud database found extremely low rates. In Arizona, there were around 42.6 million votes cast with only 36 cases of fraud in total over 25 years. In Pennsylvania, the Heritage Foundation analyzed 30 years of data across which 32 elections were held, and just 39 cases of voter fraud were identified — 0.000039 percent of the more than 100 million ballots cast.

Even the conservative-leaning database: The Heritage Foundation itself—often cited by those arguing fraud is a bigger problem—has documented 1,561 instances of voter fraud resulting in 1,325 convictions across its entire historical database, with only 20 cases brought in 2024. Given hundreds of millions of votes cast over that period, this represents a minuscule fraction.

Why Perception Differs from Reality

Despite this evidence, public belief in widespread fraud remains common. A 2024 survey found that substantial proportions of U.S. registered voters believe various types of election fraud are common, with partisanship correlating strongly with this belief—Republicans were consistently more likely than others to state that types of election fraud are common, even controlling for other factors. Similarly, polling cited by Statista found that despite fraud being extremely rare, six in ten U.S. adults were concerned about it ahead of the 2024 presidential election, with concern at 86% among Republican-leaning voters versus 33% among Democratic-leaning voters.

Researchers note that much of what gets labeled "fraud" actually stems from other causes: most reported incidents of voter fraud are actually traceable to other sources, such as clerical errors or bad data matching practices.

Bottom Line

The strong consensus among election researchers, nonpartisan institutions, and even conservative-leaning databases is that voter fraud exists but at an extremely small scale—far too small to swing elections. The gap between this evidence and public perception (especially among Republicans) is itself a significant and well-documented phenomenon in American politics, driving policy debates over voter ID laws and election security measures.