Is voter fraud a problem in the US?

I'll look into whether voter fraud is a problem in the US and what current evidence shows.

In the United States voter fraud exists, but research, court findings and government investigations consistently find it is very rare relative to total votes cast and not at a scale to affect national elections.

What the evidence shows

> Electoral fraud is very rare in the United States

> Research has consistently found that voter fraud in the United States is very rare

> Empirical evidence across decades and multiple methodologies leads to one clear, repeatable conclusion: proven voter fraud is extremely rare relative to the number of votes cast — measured in orders of magnitude of 0.0000X percent — and no rigorous body of research has shown fraud at the scale necessary to flip major U.S. elections

Other summaries reach the same conclusion:

•There is no evidence for widespread voter fraud in U.S. elections, including in recent national elections

•Studies consistently show that voter fraud is exceedingly rare relative to the total number of votes cast

•The best available public studies and official reviews place the rate of proven voter fraud in the United States at effectively zero for national elections — measured in tiny fractions of a percent

Commonly cited quantitative estimates include:

•The Brennan Center's seminal report reviewed elections meticulously studied for fraud and found incident rates between 0.0003 percent and 0.0025 percent. The Center also noted it is more likely for an American to be struck by lightning than to commit voter fraud either through in-person voting or with mail ballots

•A comprehensive 2014 study published in The Washington Post found 31 credible instances of impersonation fraud from 2000 to 2014, out of more than 1 billion ballots cast

•A Massachusetts Institute of Technology analysis covering 20 years found mail-in ballot fraud occurs only in 0.00006 percent of individual votes nationally

How many proven cases?

Two nationwide databases are most often cited:

•The Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank, publishes a database of voter fraud cases brought by prosecutors since 1979. As of November 2023, there were 1,465 proven cases of voter fraud listed in 44 years, an average of 33 cases per year. A more recent tally describes roughly 1,561 "proven instances" yielding about 1,325 convictions, with 20 new cases brought in 2024

•In Texas, for example, Heritage found 103 cases of confirmed voter fraud between 2005 and 2022, in a period where 107 million ballots were cast, or 0.000096% of all ballots cast

•A 2012 News21 journalism project gathered 2,068 alleged voter fraud cases between 2000 and 2012, representing about 0.000003 cases for every vote cast, with 46 percent resulting in acquittals or dropped charges.

Courts and investigations have reached similar findings - for example, a federal court in Wisconsin found impersonation fraud is extremely rare and "a truly isolated phenomenon" and the Supreme Court in Crawford noted the record contained no evidence of in-person voter impersonation fraud occurring in Indiana at any time in its history.

Types of fraud and where it is more likely

•Voter impersonation, or in-person voter fraud, occurs when someone votes in-person under the identity of someone else. It is extremely rare. Between 1978 and 2018, no elections were overturned by courts due to voter impersonation fraud.

•Mail-in or absentee ballot fraud - such as requesting ballots on behalf of others, ballot stuffing in drop boxes, or ballot harvesting - occurs more often than in-person voter fraud, but is still extremely rare. Experts note it amounts to only a tiny fraction of mail ballots.

•Illegal voting by noncitizens and double voting are also documented but at very low rates. A Brennan Center study of 23.5 million votes in 2016 found an estimated 30 incidents of suspected noncitizen voting (0.0001%).

> Fraud is more likely to occur in and affect the outcome of local elections, where the potential impact of a small number of votes can be greater

Between 1978 and 2018, at least fourteen elections were invalidated or overturned due to absentee ballot fraud, twelve of which were at the local level for offices such as county clerk, sheriff or mayor.

Why the perception gap?

Studies note that disagreements mostly concern interpretation, counting methods, and what policy response is proportionate, while perception of widespread fraud remains widespread among segments of the public despite the empirical evidence.

Election security measures in place include voter registration checks, signature verification for mail ballots, monitoring of drop boxes, audits, and federal laws enforced by the Department of Justice and FBI that prohibit vote buying, multiple voting, submission of fraudulent ballots, destruction of ballots, alteration of tallies and voter intimidation.

Citations (2)

1wikipedia.orgEncyclopedias and referencequality 0.83
Electoral fraud in the United States
Backs: “In the United States voter fraud exists, but research, court findings and government investigations consistently find it is very rare relative to total votes cast and not at a scale to affect national elections.”
2brennancenter.orgNonprofits and think tanks
Debunking the Voter Fraud Myth
Backs: “The best available public studies and official reviews place the rate of proven voter fraud in the United States at effectively zero for national elections — measured in tiny fractions of a percent. Commonly cited quantitative estimates include: The Brennan Center's seminal report reviewed elections meticulously…”