Is voter fraud a problem in the US?

Based on extensive research, voter fraud in the US is well-documented as extremely rare, though there's a significant gap between the actual rate and public perception.

What the Research Shows

Multiple academic studies spanning decades have reached a consistent conclusion: research conducted during the past two decades has concluded that there is no evidence of significant election fraud in contemporary American national elections.

Specific findings include:

•Impersonation fraud: A landmark Brennan Center study reviewed elections that had been meticulously studied for voter fraud, and found incident rates between 0.0003 percent and 0.0025 percent. The report concluded it is more likely that an American "will be struck by lightning than that he will impersonate another voter at the polls."

•Historical scale: A comprehensive 2014 study published in The Washington Post found 31 credible instances of impersonation fraud from 2000 to 2014, out of more than 1 billion ballots cast.

•Mail-in voting: Research published by the Brookings Institute in November found that cases of mail-in voting fraud account for merely 0.000043% of all ballots cast by mail, equivalent to roughly four out of every 10 million.

•Non-citizen voting: Studies on this specific claim have found essentially no evidence of impact. Illegal voting by noncitizens rarely happens, and a Cato Institute expert wrote in 2020 that the evidence doesn't support the fear that noncitizens vote enough to actually shift the outcome of elections.

•Heritage Foundation's own database (often cited by those concerned about fraud) shows how rare it is in practice: Heritage's tracker for the swing state of Pennsylvania goes back 30 years, covers 32 elections with over 100 million votes cast, and found only 39 cases of voter fraud. In Arizona, around 42.6 million votes were cast with only 36 cases of fraud in total.

•DOJ prosecutions: Between 2000-2020, the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) investigated 455 voter fraud cases, resulting in 171 convictions — a tiny number relative to the hundreds of millions of votes cast over that period.

Why Fraud Is So Rare

Experts point to both deterrence and structural reasons: "It's a criminal offense to commit ballot fraud, and most people don't want to go to jail. So that's a sufficient deterrent for almost everybody," according to Darrell West, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, who added "it's probably a very small number of people who even attempt it." Additionally, any widespread voter fraud is unlikely due to the decentralized nature of American elections.

The Perception Gap

Despite this evidence, public belief in widespread fraud remains high and sharply partisan. A Pew Research Center survey found that 54% of Republicans believe voter fraud is a major problem in U.S. elections, compared to 6% of Democrats. Academic research confirms this pattern: partisanship correlates strongly with endorsement of types of election fraud, with Republicans consistently more likely to state that types of election fraud are common, even when controlling for a wide variety of other factors. Researchers also found that conspiratorial thinking is strongly correlated with belief in the occurrence of types of election fraud, even when controlling for partisanship.

Bottom Line

The near-unanimous consensus among academic researchers, nonpartisan fact-checkers, and even conservative-leaning databases (like Heritage Foundation's) is that voter fraud occurs but at vanishingly small rates — far too small to affect election outcomes. The debate over fraud is largely driven by perception and politics rather than documented evidence, with concerns about fraud correlating strongly with partisan affiliation rather than with actual prosecuted cases.

Citations (14)

1frontiersin.orgAcademic
Frontiersin
Source excerpt: “Research conducted during the past two decades has concluded that there is no evidence of significant election fraud in contemporary American national...”
2brennancenter.orgNonprofits and think tanks
Debunking the Voter Fraud Myth
Source excerpt: “The report reviewed elections that had been meticulously studied for voter fraud, and found incident rates between 0.0003 percent and 0.0025 percent. ...”
3brennancenter.orgNonprofits and think tanks
Debunking the Voter Fraud Myth
Source excerpt: “Given this tiny incident rate for voter impersonation fraud, it is more likely, the report noted, that an American “will be struck by lightning than t...”
4brennancenter.orgNonprofits and think tanks
Debunking the Voter Fraud Myth
Source excerpt: “- A comprehensive 2014 study published in *The Washington Post* found 31 credible instances of impersonation fraud from 2000 to 2014, out of more than...”
5time.comNews and mediaquality 0.83
The Facts About Mail-In Voting Fraud
Source excerpt: “## Documented cases of mail voting fraud are extremely uncommon Research published by the Brookings Institute in November found that cases of mail-in ...”
6abc7amarillo.comNews and mediaquality 0.67
States work to calm fears over rare instances of voter fraud
Source excerpt: “Illegal voting by noncitizens rarely happens, and a Cato Institute expert wrote in 2020 that the evidence doesn’t support the fear that noncitizens vo...”
7abc7amarillo.comNews and mediaquality 0.67
States work to calm fears over rare instances of voter fraud
Source excerpt: “She said her analysis found a "minuscule" amount of voter fraud in the U.S. For example, she wrote that Heritage’s tracker for the swing state of Pen...”
8newsweek.comNews and mediaquality 0.82
Voter Fraud in US Elections? What the Data and Research Shows - Newsweek
Source excerpt: “In the case of Arizona—one of the states most closely watched following the 2020 election—that meant around 42.6 million votes cast with only 36 cases...”
9zipdo.coData and tools
Voter Fraud: 2026 Research Stats
Source excerpt: “01 Between 2000-2020, the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) investigated 455 voter fraud cases, resulting in 171 convictions. ”
10newsweek.comNews and mediaquality 0.82
Voter Fraud in US Elections? What the Data and Research Shows - Newsweek
Source excerpt: “"It's a criminal offense to commit ballot fraud, and most people don't want to go to jail. So that's a sufficient deterrent for almost everybody," Dar...”
11thehill.comNews and mediaquality 0.90
Election fraud rare in US elections, despite persistent claims otherwise
Source excerpt: “Any widespread voter fraud is unlikely due to the decentralized nature of American elections. ”
12zipdo.coData and tools
Voter Fraud: 2026 Research Stats
Source excerpt: “04 A Pew Research Center survey found that 54% of Republicans believe voter fraud is a major problem in U.S. elections, compared to 6% of Democrats. ”
13frontiersin.orgAcademic
Frontiers
Source excerpt: “Our multivariate analysis shows that partisanship correlates strongly with endorsement of types of election fraud, with Republicans consistently more ...”
14frontiersin.orgAcademic
Frontiersin
Source excerpt: “We also find that conspiratorial thinking is strongly correlated with belief in the occurrence of types of election fraud, even when we control for pa...”