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Claude Sonnet 5Oct 3, 2026anthropic/claude-sonnet-5-20260630

Is political polarization worse than it's been in the past?

Short answer: Yes, by most measures—especially in the U.S.—but with important nuance

On affective/emotional polarization (how partisans feel about each other), yes, it's historically unprecedented.

•Partisan approval gaps for presidents have steadily widened over decades. The approval rating divide highlights a decades-long trend in increasing polarization, with George W. Bush and Bill Clinton each averaging approval ratings from the opposite party around 23-27%, Barack Obama averaging 13% among Republicans as the first to average under 20%, and Trump averaging just under 8% among Democrats in his first term.
•Unfavorable views of the opposing party have roughly doubled: the share of Republicans who view Democrats as "very unfavorable" has risen from 17% in 1994 to 62% in 2024, and the mirror image for Democrats is nearly identical.
•Recent Gallup data confirms this is still intensifying: trends reflect the country's increasingly extreme levels of polarization, with a record 40-point gap between Republicans' and Democrats' satisfaction with the system of government.
•Majorities now see the other side as dangerous: 63% of Americans see the opposing party as a "threat to democracy," and affective polarization has roughly doubled since 1994.

On ideological/structural polarization, it's also at or near historic highs—but Congress has recovered from similarly extreme periods before.

•Congressional voting patterns show stark separation: since the post–Civil War era, polarization levels measured by roll-call voting have shown considerable volatility; the contemporary level is a record, but Congress has recovered from earlier periods of high polarization, with the previous high point being 1890-1910.
•One historian's analysis notes: following a period of a much more balanced Congress during the middle of the 20th century, ideological distance between the parties began to grow during the 1970s to the extent that Congress is now more polarized than at any time since the late 1870s Reconstruction Era.
•Scholars caution against treating this as entirely unprecedented: the rhetoric around congressional polarization is far more negative than the existing evidence can justify—this is an argument against viewing the present era as so exceptional that it falls outside the historical ebb and flow of partisan contention.

A key paradox: people feel more divided than their actual policy views suggest.

•Issue polling consistently shows broad cross-partisan agreement on specific policies—79% support Medicare drug price negotiation, 76% support pre-existing conditions protections, 74% support the PACT Act, 70% support marijuana decriminalization, and 64% support universal background checks.
•This suggests Americans disagree less on substance than the intensity of partisan hostility implies—polarization today is driven more by tribal identity and animosity than by genuine ideological distance on many issues.

Bottom line: If you mean emotional/tribal polarization (distrust, hostility, viewing the other side as an existential threat), yes—this is likely worse than at any point in modern polling history (since the 1950s-90s baseline). If you mean structural polarization in Congress, we're at record levels by some measures, but history shows comparable extremes existed before (e.g., the 1890s-1910s), and the system did recover. The U.S. also stands out globally—the share of people who consider themselves on the far left or far right is particularly high in the United States compared to other countries like Germany.

Citations (9)

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    trump record high polarization

    Source excerpt: “The approval rating divide highlights a decades-long trend in increasing polarization. George W. Bush and Bill Clinton each averaged approval rating...”

  2. 2uspollingdata.comData and tools
    Political Polarization in 2026: How Divided Is America, Really?

    Source excerpt: “80pt Partisan gap in Trump approval 57% Americans in "landslide counties" (2024) 63% - 80-point partisan gap in Trump approval (90% R / 8-10% D) ...”

  3. 3brookings.eduNonprofits and think tanks
    Historic polarization and historic lows in satisfaction with government, quality of life, and opportunity to get ahead

    Source excerpt: “These trends again reflect the country’s increasingly extreme levels of polarization, which (not surprisingly) are significantly more pronounced in pe...”

  4. Congressional Polarization: Terminal Constitutional Dysfunction? - Columbia Law Review

    Source excerpt: “Since the post–Civil War era—when today’s Republican and Democratic parties first emerged—polarization levels (measured by roll-call voting) have show...”

  5. 5usc.eduAcademic
    Political polarization at its worst since the Civil War - USC Today

    Source excerpt: “Following a period of a much more balanced Congress during the middle of the 20th century, ideological distance between the parties began to grow duri...”

  6. Congressional Polarization: Terminal Constitutional Dysfunction? - Columbia Law Review

    Source excerpt: “This review ultimately suggests that the rhetoric around congressional polarization—particularly around the likely continuation of partisan warfare an...”

  7. Congressional Polarization: Terminal Constitutional Dysfunction? - Columbia Law Review

    Source excerpt: “Rather, it is an argument against viewing the present era as so exceptional that it falls outside the historical ebb and flow of partisan contention, ...”

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    Political Polarization in 2026: How Divided Is America, Really?

    Source excerpt: “But issue polling consistently shows broad agreement that cuts across partisan lines on many specific policies. 79% of Americans support Medicare drug...”

  9. 9statista.comData and toolsquality 0.86
    Chart: Political Polarization Particularly Strong in the U.S.

    Source excerpt: “The share of people who consider themselves on the far left or far right of the political spectrum is particularly high in the United States, accordin...”