Will stopping immigration cause labor shortages?

Will cutting immigration create worker shortages? I'll pull the latest research and data to weigh the evidence.

Yes, most economic and demographic research finds that sharply reducing or stopping immigration would cause - and is already causing - labor shortages in the United States.

1. Immigration is a primary driver of labor force growth

Research summarized as: "Tightened immigration controls are directly linked to growing labor shortages in key sectors"and "U.S. workforce depends heavily on immigrants, especially in low-skilled jobs that are hard to fill with U.S.-born workers alone."

Another assessment: "Immigration is no longer just a social or political issue–it’s an economic necessity... Without a proactive immigration strategy, the U.S. risks severe labor shortages and longterm declines in productivity"

2. What models project under zero or low immigration

A Brookings model of a sudden plunge in immigration finds it reduces the labor force available to fill jobs, dampening employment, GDP, and consumer spending and pushing sustainable monthly job growth well below historical norms — perhaps to 20,000–50,000 or even negative territory

3. Recent estimates of the impact of restrictions

Brookings analysis of 2025 ICE enforcement surges found:

> The enforcement surge cost 668,000 jobs. Across the cities with the sharpest rise in ICE arrests, employment fell 0.73% below what they would have seen absent the surge

For every six male undocumented workers lost, the labor market also loses one male U.S.-born worker, indicating spillovers beyond immigrants, with an estimated 51,000-297,000 of the 668,000 jobs lost held by American-born workers

4. Sectors most affected

Industries such as construction, leisure and hospitality, and other services had an above average share of foreign workers in 2015 and experienced an above average increase in job vacancy rates from 2016 to 2021 when immigration was reduced

This labor force contraction has created acute shortages in sectors reliant on immigrant labor, such as retail, logistics, and healthcare

The U.S. Department of Labor itself stated: "The near total cessation of the inflow of illegal aliens combined with the lack of an available legal workforce, results in significant disruptions to production costs and (threatens) the stability of domestic food production"

5. Does it help American workers?

Proponents argue that fewer immigrants means less competition and higher wages for Americans.

Research is mixed on wages but does not support net job creation:

Recent work finds enforcement reduces employment for American-born workers as firms scale back and consumer spending falls when immigrant communities withdraw from public life due to fear

Bottom line

Because the U.S. has an aging population and fertility rates below replacement, immigration has become the primary mechanism keeping the population and labor force growing. Stopping it - even for a few years - does not create a surplus of American workers to fill the gap; instead it shrinks the workforce, leaves vacancies in agriculture, construction, hospitality, healthcare and logistics unfilled, raises costs, and can reduce employment even for U.S.-born workers.

Mitigation would require large increases in native birth rates, labor force participation, or automation - none of which can offset the short-term loss quickly: It would require Iowa's birth rate to be 7% above current trend for four years to offset the loss if foreign immigration went to zero.