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Claude Sonnet 5Oct 3, 2026anthropic/claude-sonnet-5-20260630

Is Donald Trump improving the US government?

This is a deeply subjective question that depends on political values, priorities, and which policies or outcomes you weigh most heavily—reasonable people disagree sharply on it. Rather than offering my own verdict, let me share what current data and expert assessments show across different dimensions, so you can form your own judgment.Whether Trump is "improving" the government is fundamentally a value judgment, not a factual question I can settle—it depends heavily on what you prioritize. Here's a balanced look at the evidence from both sides as of early October 2026:

Public Opinion

By most measures, Trump's approval has declined significantly and is now underwater. A new Associated Press/NORC poll finds Donald Trump's approval at 31%, while 69% disapprove. Trump has yet again hit an all-time approval rating low of net -23, with his net approval sitting at -22.7. For context, this far into his first term, Trump was at -11.0, while Biden was at net -8.8 at the same point in his presidency—meaning his second-term numbers are notably worse than either his own first term or his predecessor's. Polls do vary somewhat by methodology, with some showing approval in the high 30s/low 40s and others in the low 30s.

Claimed Accomplishments (Administration's Case)

The White House and allied outlets point to several areas as wins:

•Border security: Illegal immigration across the Southwest border fell to the lowest level in 50 years in 2025, as the administration sent troops to help secure it.
•Energy: U.S. crude oil production reached approximately 13.6 million barrels per day in 2025, a record annual level.
•Foreign policy: The administration claims it obliterated Iran's nuclear enrichment capacity and secured a NATO agreement raising defense spending to 5% of GDP.
•Government efficiency: DOGE claimed savings pushing toward the quarter-trillion-dollar mark, with continued federal workforce attrition through hiring freezes and automation.
•Executive pace: As of September 30, 2025, Trump had signed 209 executive orders, compared to 64 by Biden during the equivalent period in 2021.

Areas of Significant Controversy/Criticism

•Economy: Independent trackers note tariff-driven inflation, with Q1 GDP growth but PCE inflation around 4.5%, raising stagflation warnings.
•Swing-state erosion: Trump's approval in Nevada fell from 52% in March to 47% in September, and broader polling shows him underwater in all swing states, with particularly low approval among Gen Z (-42 net).
•Governance style: A Washington Post analysis notes no modern president has done more to personally reshape the nation's capital—an effort allies credit as a major achievement, while many others just want him to stop.
•Contested health policy: Changes to vaccine schedules drew sharp criticism from public health and medical organizations that argue the changes lack scientific consensus, while MAHA supporters frame it as restoring informed parental choice.

Bottom Line

Fact-checkers summarizing the record note that claims of major successes come largely from White House outlets and sympathetic press, while mainstream outlets and watchdogs highlight legal fights, market reactions, and policy controversies.

So: his administration has pushed through policy changes at a rapid pace, with real, measurable outcomes in areas like border crossings and energy production. At the same time, public approval has fallen to some of the lowest levels of any modern president at this point in a term, and there's active debate over economic conditions, governance norms, and specific policy choices. Whether these changes constitute "improvement" really comes down to which outcomes and values you weigh most heavily.

Citations (15)

  1. 1politicalwire.comNot yet classified
    Trump Approval at Just 31%

    Source excerpt: “A new Associated Press/NORC poll finds Donald Trump’s approval at 31%, while 69% disapprove. ”

  2. 2natesilver.netBlogs and newsletters
    Trump Approval Rating: Latest Polls

    Source excerpt: “Donald Trump has yet again hit an all-time approval rating low of net -23. As of today, his net approval is sitting at -22.7. ”

  3. 3natesilver.netBlogs and newsletters
    Trump Approval Rating: Latest Polls

    Source excerpt: “This far into his first term, Trump was all the way up at -11.0, while Joe Biden was at net -8.8 at the same point ... # Silver Bulletin # How popul...”

  4. 4america.govGovernment
    Trump administration marks one year of successes - ShareAmerica

    Source excerpt: “Illegal immigration across the United States’ Southwest border fell to the lowest level in 50 years in 2025, as the Trump administration sent troops t...”

  5. 5stl.newsNews and media
    Trump’s Second Term: The Data Behind the Accomplishments and the Fight Over the Narrative in 2026

    Source excerpt: “## Energy Production: A Record-Level Accomplishment With Direct Inflation Impact One of the strongest data-backed accomplishments of Trump’s second ...”

  6. 6whitehouse.govGovernment
    President Trump Delivers Historic Results for the American People in Under Two Years

    Source excerpt: “## Restoring American Military Might and Peace Through Strength - President Trump obliterated Iran’s nuclear enrichment capacity and launched Operatio...”

  7. 7whitehouse.govGovernment
    President Trump Delivers Historic Results for the American People in Under Two Years

    Source excerpt: “- President Trump secured a transformational NATO agreement — raising member countries’ defense spending contributions to 5% of GDP — and convinced th...”

  8. 8amgreatness.comNews and mediaquality 0.39
    Trump Administration Accomplishments: October 2025

    Source excerpt: “# Trump Administration Accomplishments: October 2025 – Present, Part One **GOVERNMENT EFFICIENCY (DOGE) AND DEREGULATION** The Department of Governme...”

  9. 9substack.comBlogs and newsletters
    Trump Administration Accomplishments in 2025

    Source excerpt: “For example, as of September 30, 2025, President Trump has signed 209 executive orders, 52 memoranda, and 91 proclamations since his inauguration on 2...”

  10. 10uspollingdata.comData and tools
    Trump Approval Rating 2026 — Monthly Tracker & Historical Comparison

    Source excerpt: “Key Findings — October 2026 - Current average: **37.5% approve / 60.1% disapprove** (net -22.6) — compiled from Gallup, Reuters/Ipsos, YouGov, Quinni...”

  11. 11bu.eduAcademic
    Donald Trump’s Approval Rating Underwater in Swing State

    Source excerpt: “According to Morning Consult, Trump’s approval in the state has fallen from 52% in March to 47% in September, tipping into a net negative in just seve...”

  12. 12bu.eduAcademic
    Donald Trump’s Approval Rating Underwater in Swing State

    Source excerpt: “Economic pressures, including rising rent and housing costs, are likely contributing to waning support, and broader polling indicates Trump is now und...”

  13. 13washingtonpost.comNews and mediaquality 0.82
    How Trump’s sweeping changes are remaking Washington - Washington Post

    Source excerpt: “No modern president has done more to personally reshape the nation’s capital. It’s an effort that Trump’s deputies and allies credit as a major achiev...”

  14. 14amgreatness.comNews and mediaquality 0.39
    Trump Administration Accomplishments: October 2025

    Source excerpt: “This drew sharp criticism from public health and medical organizations that argue the changes lack scientific consensus, while MAHA supporters frame i...”

  15. 15factually.coLow provenance
    What Has Trump Accomplished Since 2025?

    Source excerpt: “Since Jan. 20, 2025, the Trump administration has pushed an aggressive, interlocking agenda centered on economic growth through tariffs and tax cuts, ...”