What is the current state of US politics?

Here's a snapshot of the current state of U.S. politics as of early October 2026:

Trump Administration & Approval Ratings

President Trump is in the second year of his second, nonconsecutive term, and his approval ratings have fallen to some of the lowest levels of either of his terms. Trump's approval rating fell to some of the lowest marks of his second term in September 2026, with one survey putting him at 33% approve, described as a new low for his second term. Averaged across major pollsters, approval is around 37.3% and disapproval around 60.2%, a net of roughly −23. A Quinnipiac poll found even starker numbers, with Trump having a 34% approval rating and 61% disapproval rating, while 53% of respondents said they would vote for the Democratic congressional candidate in their district in midterms, versus 42% for the Republican.

His economic ratings are particularly weak — cost of living is the most important issue heading into the midterms, with a plurality (47%) saying it's their top concern, while Trump logs poor ratings on his handling of the economy—71% disapproval/22% approval. Even his base is eroding somewhat: Trump's approval rating among Republicans has declined from 89% to 75% since April 2025.

Cabinet Shakeups

There's been notable turnover in the administration recently. Keith Sonderling took over as acting Labor Secretary following the resignation of Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer, while President Trump nominated Senator Markwayne Mullin to head the Department of Homeland Security, with Kristi Noem transitioning to a Western Hemisphere security envoy role.

Government Funding

The country narrowly avoided another shutdown this fall after a turbulent year of funding fights. The feared government shutdown in October 2026 did not happen — with federal funding set to lapse at midnight on October 1, Congress moved early, passing a continuing resolution that Trump signed into law on September 2, 2026. The bill keeps federal agencies funded at current levels through December 11, 2026, pushing the shutdown fight past the November midterm elections.

This follows a brutal earlier stretch: two shutdowns occurred in 2026, both stemming from congressional disputes over federal immigration enforcement reforms following the killing of Alex Pretti by CBP agents — a four-day shutdown from January 31 to February 3, and a 76-day shutdown from February 14 to April 30 limited to the Department of Homeland Security.

2026 Midterm Elections (November 3)

All eyes are on the upcoming midterms, where control of Congress is at stake. All 435 seats in the U.S. House and 35 of the 100 Senate seats will be contested to determine the 120th Congress, along with 39 state and territorial gubernatorial elections, attorney general elections, and numerous state and local races.

The political environment looks difficult for Republicans. Analysts note no president has gone into a midterm election this unpopular — not even George W. Bush in 2006 — with Trump's net approval of −28 nearly double the deficit he was running at the same point in his first term, when net approval sat at −13 heading toward the 2018 wave that cost Republicans 41 House seats. The generic ballot has also shifted against the GOP, with Democrats showing a significant edge.

Foreign Policy & Military Developments

Iran has been a major flashpoint. Secretary of State Marco Rubio formally requested the departure of the Iranian delegation from the U.N. General Assembly after ceasefire talks stalled in New York. Meanwhile, American military forces completed their withdrawal from Iraq, terminating the long-standing counter-ISIS coalition mission after 12 years.

Domestic Tensions

Immigration enforcement remains highly contentious — it was the root cause of the year's shutdowns. There have also been notable protests, including over 60 military veterans being arrested inside the Cannon House Office Building while protesting ongoing U.S. military operations in Iran. Separately, Democratic lawmakers launched a congressional inquiry into rising national childcare costs and the recent closure of regional Head Start centers.

Bottom Line

The overall picture is one of a Republican-controlled government (House, Senate, and presidency) heading into a difficult midterm election with historically low approval ratings, driven largely by economic discontent (inflation/cost of living), ongoing immigration enforcement controversies, and foreign policy tensions involving Iran. Democrats appear well-positioned to make gains in November, though control of the Senate remains harder for them to flip given the map.