Will stopping immigration cause labor shortages?
Whether stopping immigration will cause labor shortages is one of the most heavily debated questions in economics. The answer depends on which industries are being examined, the timeframe (short-term vs. long-term), and how different economists define a "labor shortage."
Mainstream economists, industry leaders, labor advocates, and immigration restrictionists hold differing views on the outcome of halting immigration.
The Argument That Stopping Immigration Will Cause Labor Shortages
Many economists and business associations argue that immigration is essential to filling critical gaps in the workforce. From this perspective, halting immigration leads to severe and lasting labor shortages for several key reasons:
In many developed nations, including the United States, parts of Europe, and Japan, birth rates are below replacement level and the native-born population is aging. As millions of Baby Boomers retire, there are not enough native-born workers entering the workforce to replace them. Immigrants tend to be younger and have higher labor-force participation rates, helping to offset this demographic gap.
Certain industries are heavily dependent on foreign-born labor.
Economists point to the drop in immigration during the COVID-19 pandemic (2020–2021) as a real-world case study. During this time, net migration to the U.S. slowed significantly, resulting in an estimated shortfall of roughly 2 million working-age immigrants. This drop directly correlated with acute worker shortages, supply chain snarls, and wage-push inflation in immigrant-reliant industries.
The Argument That Stopping Immigration Will Not Cause a Permanent Shortage
Conversely, some labor economists, labor unions, and organizations that advocate for lower immigration (such as the Center for Immigration Studies) argue that the concept of a permanent "labor shortage" is a myth in a free-market economy. They argue that stopping immigration would prompt positive economic adjustments:
Critics argue that a "labor shortage" often just means a shortage of workers willing to work for low wages under poor working conditions. In a free market, if labor is scarce, businesses must compete for workers by raising wages, offering better benefits, and improving working conditions. Stopping the flow of low-cost foreign labor forces employers to pay native-born workers more.
When labor is cheap and abundant, businesses have little incentive to invest in labor-saving technologies. If immigration is halted and labor costs rise, companies are forced to innovate. This can lead to increased automation (e.g., robotic harvesting in agriculture, self-service kiosks in retail), which raises overall economic productivity and allows the economy to produce the same output with fewer workers.
Proponents of immigration restrictions point out that there are millions of native-born citizens who are currently unemployed or have dropped out of the labor force entirely (such as workers without college degrees, younger workers, and marginalized groups). They argue that higher wages and better recruiting efforts would pull these discouraged domestic workers back into the active workforce.
Short-Term Disruption vs. Long-Term Adaptation
How the economy reacts to a halt in immigration depends heavily on the timeframe:
Citations (13)
- forbes.com
Backs: “long-term), and how different economists define a "labor shortage."”
- cmsny.org
Backs: “long-term), and how different economists define a "labor shortage."”
- cis.org
Backs: “long-term), and how different economists define a "labor shortage."”
- wes.org
Backs: “Many economists and business associations argue that immigration is essential to filling critical gaps in the workforce.”
- econofact.org
Backs: “Many economists and business associations argue that immigration is essential to filling critical gaps in the workforce.”
- equitablegrowth.org
Backs: “Reliance in Critical Sectors: Certain industries are heavily dependent on foreign-born labor.”
- cfr.org
Backs: “Construction and Hospitality: Immigrants represent a significant share of construction laborers, hotel staff, and restaurant workers.”
- iit.edu
Backs: “Conversely, some labor economists, labor unions, and organizations that advocate for lower immigration (such as the Center for Immigration Studies) argue that the concept of a permanent "labor shortage" is a myth in a free-market economy. They argue that stopping immigration would prompt positive economic adjustments:”
- cis.org
Backs: “Conversely, some labor economists, labor unions, and organizations that advocate for lower immigration (such as the Center for Immigration Studies) argue that the concept of a permanent "labor shortage" is a myth in a free-market economy. They argue that stopping immigration would prompt positive economic adjustments:”
- cis.org
Backs: “A "Shortage" is a Price Signal for Higher Wages: Critics argue that a "labor shortage" often just means a shortage of workers willing to work for low wages under poor working conditions. In a free market, if labor is scarce, businesses must compete for workers by raising wages, offering better benefits, and improving…”
- cis.org
Backs: “Incentives for Automation and Productivity: When labor is cheap and abundant, businesses have little incentive to invest in labor-saving technologies. If immigration is halted and labor costs rise, companies are forced to innovate.”
- cis.org
Backs: “Mobilizing Domestic Workers Out of the Labor Force: Proponents of immigration restrictions point out that there are millions of native-born citizens who are currently unemployed or have dropped out of the labor force entirely (such as workers without college degrees, younger workers, and marginalized groups). They…”
- reddit.com
Backs: “In the Long Term: The economy will eventually reach a new equilibrium. However, economists disagree on what that equilibrium looks like:”