Is political polarization worse than it's been in the past?

I'll search recent research to compare today's polarization with historical levels.

Short answer: Yes - if you mean the last 50-70 years. No - if you include the mid-19th century.

Scholars distinguish between ideological polarization (differences between policy positions) and affective polarization (dislike and distrust of political out-groups), and both measures show a sharp increase in modern times, but not necessarily a historic peak compared to the Civil War era.

1. Polarization is at a modern high

> As of 2025, polarization was higher than any point in current history, causing less collaboration and mutual understanding between Democrats and Republicans

•Long-term trend since the 1970s: Polarization has increased since the 1970s, with rapid increases in polarization during the 2000s onwards

•Pew Research findings: Members of both parties who have unfavorable opinions of the opposing party doubled between 1994 and 2014

The share of Americans who expressed either "consistently liberal" or "consistently conservative" opinions doubled from 10% to 21% from 1994 to 2014.

Pew's broader scale shows:

> The overall share of Americans who express consistently conservative or consistently liberal opinions has doubled over the past two decades from 10% to 21%
> Ideological overlap diminished: Today, 92% of Republicans are to the right of the median Democrat, and 94% of Democrats are to the left of the median Republican

Partisan animosity also grew:

> In 1994 ... just 17% had very unfavorable opinions. Similarly ... just 16% had very unfavorable views. Since then, highly negative views have more than doubled: 43% of Republicans and 38% of Democrats now view the opposite party in strongly negative terms

2. Affective polarization has risen dramatically

Researchers track "affective polarization" — citizens feeling more negatively toward other political parties than toward their own.

•The U.S. has grown more rapidly in the last 40 years—more than in Canada, the United Kingdom, Australia or Germany

•They found that in the U.S., affective polarization has increased more dramatically since the late 1970s than in the eight other countries they examined

Using the American National Election Studies "feeling thermometer" on a scale from 0 to 100:

> In 1978, the average American rated the members of their own political party 27 points higher than members of the other major party. By 2016, Americans were rating their own party 45.9 points higher than the other party

A more recent update shows:

> In 1978 ... the difference ... was 27 points. The gap had widened to 56 by 2020

That is more than a two-fold increase since the 1970s.

A separate long-term study confirms the same timing:

> Levels of affective polarisation have risen more than two-fold since the 1970s when the American National Election Studies ... began asking citizens to rate how they felt

3. The sharpest modern acceleration is recent

•Researchers at the University of Cambridge’s Political Psychology Lab tracked shifts ... before rising steadily from 2008 onward ... they estimate that issue polarization has increased 64% since the late 1980s, with almost all of that change occurring after 2008

•The paper challenges the idea that polarization is solely a Trump-era phenomenon. It points to 2008 as the "major turning point"

Pew and other scholars note the 1990s as an earlier inflection - the 1950s and 1960s were marked by high levels of political bipartisanship, the results of a post-World War II "consensus", followed by increasing polarization driven primarily by the Republican Party in the 1990s, and later by both parties.

Polarization among U.S. legislators is asymmetric, as it has primarily been driven by a rightward shift among Republicans in Congress, although a 2024 Cambridge analysis argues the widening gap is driven less by the right drifting further right and more by the left moving rapidly in a progressive direction - the "left" cluster became 31.5% more socially liberal by 2024 compared with 1988, while the "right" cluster shifted only 2.8% more conservative.

A Brown University comparative study found the U.S. was polarizing faster compared to other democratic countries such as Canada, the United Kingdom, Germany, and Australia.

4. In longer historical perspective, not unprecedented

Viewed within the context of data from the last two centuries — today's levels of polarization are not such an alarming anomaly compared to those occurring during the time of slavery.

•"No political issue in 2020 approaches slavery in the mid-19th century in terms of potential divisiveness." ... University of Virginia Civil War historian ... says that current divisions pale in comparison to those of the mid-19th century

•"The most divisive time in our history was in the years leading up to the Civil War," ... "In the mid-19th Century, differences were so profound representatives carried weapons into Congress"

•The Gilded Age of the late 19th century (c. 1870 – 1900) is considered to be one of the most politically polarized periods in American history

Some historians do argue the opposite - that "The divisions are now deeper, even than they were in the 19th century" - often pointing to the national sorting into Blue vs. Red states and the alignment of cultural, social and political identities.

Other research adds nuance: Americans are less polarized than they think, and that there is "significant ideological overlap and agreement on policies". Ideological polarization is felt most strongly among those who are the most politically engaged - while the broader public may be less consistently ideological and more affectively polarized (disliking the other side).

Bottom line

•Compared to the last 30-50 years: Yes, every major survey metric (ideological consistency, partisan animosity, feeling thermometers, issue polarization) shows polarization is worse than at any point since systematic polling began in the 1970s-1990s, accelerating especially after 2008.

•Compared to the last 160+ years: No, according to most historians, levels do not exceed - and in intensity do not approach - the sectional crisis over slavery that led to the nation literally breaking apart between 1860 and 1865, or the violently partisan Gilded Age.

Citations (5)

1wikipedia.orgEncyclopedias and referencequality 0.83
Political polarization in the United States
Backs: “Short answer: Yes - if you mean the last 50-70 years. No - if you include the mid-19th century. Scholars distinguish between ideological polarization (differences between policy positions) and affective polarization (dislike and distrust of political out-groups), and both measures show a sharp increase in modern…”
2muni.czNot yet classified
Political Polarization in the American Public | Pew Research Center for the People and the Press
Backs: “The share of Americans who expressed either "consistently liberal" or "consistently conservative" opinions doubled from 10% to 21% from 1994 to 2014. Pew's broader scale shows: The overall share of Americans who express consistently conservative or consistently liberal opinions has doubled over the past two decades…”
3phys.orgNews and mediaquality 0.85
US is polarizing faster than other democracies, study finds
Backs: “Since then, highly negative views have more than doubled: 43% of Republicans and 38% of Democrats now view the opposite party in strongly negative terms. 2. Affective polarization has risen dramatically. Researchers track "affective polarization" — citizens feeling more negatively toward other political parties than…”
4econlib.orgEncyclopedias and reference
Yes, political polarization has gotten much worse
Backs: “By 2016, Americans were rating their own party 45.9 points higher than the other party. A more recent update shows:”
5fastcompany.comNews and mediaquality 0.80
U.S. political polarization started a lot earlier than you might expect
Backs: “Researchers at the University of Cambridge’s Political Psychology Lab tracked shifts ... before rising steadily from 2008 onward ... they estimate that issue polarization has increased 64% since the late 1980s, with almost all of that change occurring after 2008”