Is voter fraud a problem in the US?

Voter fraud is a contested question — I'll pull the latest evidence on how often it occurs in the US.

In the United States voter fraud exists, but research across decades and multiple methodologies finds it is extremely rare and not at a scale to change major election outcomes.

What the evidence shows

Empirical evidence across decades and multiple methodologies leads to one clear, repeatable conclusion: proven voter fraud is extremely rare relative to the number of votes cast — measured in orders of magnitude of 0.0000X percent — and no rigorous body of research has shown fraud at the scale necessary to flip major U.S. elections.

The weight of rigorous academic studies, major news investigations, and official reviews converge: voter fraud exists but is vanishingly rare in absolute and relative terms—orders of magnitude below levels that would flip national elections.

Common rate estimates include:

Other reviews put rates similarly low — for example a Massachusetts Institute of Technology study called mail-in fraud “exceedingly rare” and reported rates on the order of 0.00006 percent, and Brookings' review of Heritage Foundation data calculated examples such as Arizona where fraudulent votes were roughly 0.0000845 percent across decades.

Government and court reviews agree:

> Putting rhetoric aside to look at the facts makes clear that fraud by voters at the polls is vanishingly rare, and does not happen on a scale even close to that necessary to “rig” an election.

Investigations have repeatedly found very few cases relative to votes cast — for example, a Department of Justice unit formed to find federal election fraud examined the 2002 and 2004 federal elections and were able to prove that 0.00000013 percent of ballots cast were fraudulent.

How many proven cases?

The most-cited public compilation, The Heritage Foundation's Election Fraud Database, lists roughly 1,561 “proven instances” yielding about 1,325 convictions across its time window. That is across 40+ years of elections in all states. Of those, just 20 cases were brought in 2024.

For noncitizen voting specifically — often the focus of claims about widespread fraud:

What counts as voter fraud?

Federal law enforcement distinguishes:

More generally, examples include double voting, voter impersonation, false registration, ballot tampering, voter intimidation, falsifying results.

Is it a systemic problem in recent elections?

Reporting on 2024 concluded: Based on the assembled reporting, there is no credible evidence of widespread or systemic voter fraud in the 2024 presidential election sufficient to have changed the outcome; instead the record is one of isolated criminal cases and broad, largely debunked social claims.

Policy research consistently finds voter fraud to be rare and concentrated in isolated incidents, while surveys document that beliefs in widespread fraud remained widespread among segments of the public, creating a perception gap between empirical evidence and public belief.

Why the debate continues

Two views interpret the same rare-rate facts differently:

Bottom line: Voter fraud is not a major, systemic problem that decides national elections in the U.S. under current evidence, but it is not zero — isolated cases of double voting, false registrations, absentee ballot abuse, and noncitizen voting do occur and are prosecuted when found. Most experts describe the solution as targeted enforcement, accurate voter rolls, and audits, rather than broad claims of rigged elections.