What is the current state of US politics?
As of late September 2026, the United States is in the second year of President Donald Trump’s second (non-consecutive) term, with Republicans holding narrow majorities in both chambers of Congress (a federal trifecta), but facing strong headwinds heading into the November 3 midterm elections.[1]
Trump (Republican) defeated Kamala Harris in the 2024 election and was inaugurated on January 20, 2025, with JD Vance as vice president. Republicans retained a narrow House majority and gained control of the Senate in 2024.[2]
Current Control of Government
The 2026 midterms (all 435 House seats + 35 Senate seats, plus many governorships) are about a month away. Historical patterns strongly favor the out-party in midterms, especially with a low presidential approval rating.
Political Climate and Public Opinion
Trump’s job approval is near career and historical lows for a president at this stage, typically in the low-to-mid 30s (e.g., ~32–39% approve, ~59–60%+ disapprove in recent aggregates and polls like Reuters/Ipsos, NBC, and others), with net approval deeply negative (around -20 to -23 or worse).[5][6][7]
Key drivers of discontent include:
The generic congressional ballot consistently favors Democrats by 6–9+ points in averages (e.g., RCP ~D+8, NBC averages higher). Democrats appear more enthusiastic. Many forecasters give Democrats strong odds of taking the House (often 85–95%+ in models) and a competitive-to-favored chance at the Senate (around 50–70% depending on the model and recent shifts).[10][11][12] Some Republican candidates in swing races have begun publicly distancing themselves from aspects of the Trump agenda.[13]
A majority of Americans view the country as on the “wrong track.” Polarization remains extreme, with deep partisan divides on nearly every issue. Some analyses note democratic backsliding metrics (e.g., V-Dem scores dropping sharply in 2025) alongside resilience from courts, federalism/states, and civil society.[9]
Major Policy Themes and Events of the Second Term
Trump has governed assertively via a high volume of executive orders (hundreds, including a record early pace), legislation like the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” (making 2017-style tax cuts permanent and other changes), and the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE, initially linked to Elon Musk) for workforce and spending cuts.[1]
Priorities have included:
Redistricting in some states has aimed to favor Republicans in the House, though court rulings have blocked or altered maps (e.g., Missouri). State-level politics show increasing divergence (“laboratories of democracy”), with blue and red states pursuing opposing policies on abortion, voting, immigration, regulation, and more.[14]
Broader Context and Outlook
US politics remains highly polarized, nationalized, and personality-driven around Trump, with structural factors (gerrymandering, geographic sorting by education/urban-rural) reducing the number of truly competitive seats. Special elections and 2025 off-year races (e.g., Democratic gains in Virginia and New Jersey governorships) showed early Democratic momentum.[15]
The midterms will be pivotal: a Democratic House (and possibly Senate) would create divided government for Trump’s final two years, enabling investigations, blocking legislation, and potential further checks via impeachment threats (though removal is unlikely without a large Senate shift). Republicans hope base turnout, money advantages in some races, and any late shifts (e.g., on foreign policy or economy) can limit losses.[16]
In short, the landscape features a powerful but unpopular incumbent president pushing a transformative conservative agenda amid economic pressures and an overseas conflict, with the opposition poised for significant midterm gains that could recalibrate power balances. Situations evolve rapidly with polls, court rulings, international events, and campaign developments—check primary sources like recent polls (RCP, Nate Silver aggregates), Cook Political Report ratings, and major news outlets for the absolute latest.
Citations (16)
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_presidency_of_Donald_Trump
Backs: “As of late September 2026, the United States is in the second year of President Donald Trump’s second (non-consecutive) term, with Republicans holding narrow majorities in both chambers of Congress (a federal trifecta), but facing strong headwinds heading into the November 3 midterm elections.”
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_elections
Backs: “Republicans retained a narrow House majority and gained control of the Senate in 2024.”
- https://ballotpedia.org/List_of_current_members_of_the_U.S._Congress
Backs: “Republicans 53, Democrats 45, Independents 2 (who typically caucus with Democrats), for an effective ~53–47 Republican edge. John Thune is Majority Leader.”
- https://breakingbattlegrounds.vote/2026-midterm-elections/
Backs: “Democrats need a net gain of about 3 seats to flip control; the Senate requires a net +4 for Democrats.”
- https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/nbc-news-polling-averages-democrats-enjoy-biggest-lead-yet-race-congre-rcna599378
Backs: “Trump’s job approval is near career and historical lows for a president at this stage, typically in the low-to-mid 30s (e.g., ~32–39% approve, ~59–60%+ disapprove in recent aggregates and polls like Reuters/Ipsos, NBC, and others), with net approval deeply negative (around -20 to -23 or worse).”
- https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2026-09-21/exclusive-trump-approval-falls-to-career-low-of-32-as-high-costs-bite-reuters-ipsos-poll-finds
Backs: “Trump’s job approval is near career and historical lows for a president at this stage, typically in the low-to-mid 30s (e.g., ~32–39% approve, ~59–60%+ disapprove in recent aggregates and polls like Reuters/Ipsos, NBC, and others), with net approval deeply negative (around -20 to -23 or worse).”
- https://theconversation.com/trumps-us-ratings-drop-to-new-record-low-as-democrats-become-clear-favourites-in-both-chambers-of-congress-292769
Backs: “Trump’s job approval is near career and historical lows for a president at this stage, typically in the low-to-mid 30s (e.g., ~32–39% approve, ~59–60%+ disapprove in recent aggregates and polls like Reuters/Ipsos, NBC, and others), with net approval deeply negative (around -20 to -23 or worse).”
- https://www.csmonitor.com/text_edition/USA/Politics/2026/0925/trump-executive-action-unpopular
Backs: “Gas/diesel prices rose significantly due to the Iran conflict.”
- https://toda.org/publications/policy-briefs-and-reports/report-313-full-text/
Backs: “Launched around February 2026 (with Israel, aiming at regime change elements including high-level targeting), it has lasted longer than initially projected, driven up energy prices, and is broadly unpopular.”
- https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2026/09/18/which-party-will-win-congress-in-the-midterms-polls-show-democrats-with-stronger-advantage/
Backs: “Many forecasters give Democrats strong odds of taking the House (often 85–95%+ in models) and a competitive-to-favored chance at the Senate (around 50–70% depending on the model and recent shifts).”
- https://scrutinel.com/
Backs: “Many forecasters give Democrats strong odds of taking the House (often 85–95%+ in models) and a competitive-to-favored chance at the Senate (around 50–70% depending on the model and recent shifts).”
- https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/state-of-the-union/generic-congressional-vote
Backs: “Many forecasters give Democrats strong odds of taking the House (often 85–95%+ in models) and a competitive-to-favored chance at the Senate (around 50–70% depending on the model and recent shifts).”
- https://www.npr.org/sections/elections/
Backs: “Many forecasters give Democrats strong odds of taking the House (often 85–95%+ in models) and a competitive-to-favored chance at the Senate (around 50–70% depending on the model and recent shifts).Some Republican candidates in swing races have begun publicly distancing themselves from aspects of the Trump agenda.”
- https://www.brookings.edu/articles/a-patchwork-republic-polarization-and-the-laboratories-of-democracy/
Backs: “State-level politics show increasing divergence (“laboratories of democracy”), with blue and red states pursuing opposing policies on abortion, voting, immigration, regulation, and more.”
- https://apnews.com/article/election-2025-results-takeaways-charts-e440e2b57f751acb5e173ab35aab1bc6
Backs: “Special elections and 2025 off-year races (e.g., Democratic gains in Virginia and New Jersey governorships) showed early Democratic momentum.”
- https://www.axios.com/2026/09/26/trump-republicans-midterm-election-house-senate
Backs: “Republicans hope base turnout, money advantages in some races, and any late shifts (e.g., on foreign policy or economy) can limit losses.”